Try the model
BALL

Ball State 38 at Buffalo 28

BUF
2020 · Week 16 · Dec 18, 2020 · Ford Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:12 · Evan Finegan punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior+18.8Home team on offense+0.6Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:31: Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +6.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:55: Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds for a TD, (Jacob Lewis KICK) — BALL win probability +9.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:30: Drew Plitt pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 56 yds for a TD, (Jacob Lewis KICK) — BALL win probability +10.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:48: Christian Albright 34 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Lewis Kick) — BALL win probability +11.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:16: Kevin Marks Jr. run for 67 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +12.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 2:24BALL 4th & 19 at BALL 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:52BUF 4th & 7 at BALL 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−2.8
    average punt
  3. Q2 8:49BALL 4th & 1 at BUF 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−6.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:12BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  5. Q3 9:10BALL 4th & 4 at BUF 4, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.4%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−11.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:20BUF 4th & 3 at BALL 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−3.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:51BALL 4th & 13 at BALL 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−3.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:15BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:41BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:00BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−2.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:14BUF 4th & 8 at BALL 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−1.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:20BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−3.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:31BUF 4th & 2 at BALL 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−9.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:01BALL 4th & 4 at BUF 47, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:52BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.8%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:27BALL 4th & 12 at BUF 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:59BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:47BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:41BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:49BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:31BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:55BALL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:30BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:48BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:16BUF Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:5681% → 81%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
81.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+54
81.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 54 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
81.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+7
80.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q1 12:40
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+2
80.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
81.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:0819% → 22%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
81.1%
Justin Hall run for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+21
80.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 21 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
80.8%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+5
80.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 5 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+2
80.7%
Drew Plitt run for 2 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
80.5%
Tye Evans run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+8
80.4%
Tye Evans run for 8 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
80.5%
Tye Evans run for 2 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
80.3%
Justin Hall run for 6 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+4
80.5%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the Buff 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
78.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 10 yds for a TD, (Jack Knight KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 3:5979% → 82%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
79.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 8 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+7
79.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 7 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
79.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 8 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
79.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
79.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 7 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+2
79.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+8
78.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
81.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 24 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:1120% → 19%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
80.5%
Will Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-8
80.7%
Drew Plitt sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 8 yards to the BalSt 22Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 19
OWN 22
0
80.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Kadofi WrightSimilar
Q1 2:24
4TH & 19
OWN 22
0
81.0%
Nathan Snyder punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:2381% → 80%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
81.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 1 yd to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+3
81.0%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+5
80.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 5 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
80.5%
BALL ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
81.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the BalSt 40Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+17
81.3%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 17 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
81.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 8 yds to the BalSt 15Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+2
81.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
81.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
81.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+1
81.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the BalSt 10Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
80.4%
Alex McNulty 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chris AgyemangSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:0120% → 28%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
79.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 7 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+6
79.5%
Tye Evans run for 6 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+23
79.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 23 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+25
78.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 25 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
77.7%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+13
77.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 13 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
77.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Cody RudySimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
77.7%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.4%
Tye Evans run for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.5%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
4 plays · 76 yds · 1:0975% → 82%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
74.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 18 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+57
75.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 57 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.1%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3020% → 32%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
80.1%
Will Jones run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
79.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 7 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+24
79.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 24 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+30
78.5%
Tye Evans run for 30 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
77.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q2 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
68.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 9 yds for a TD, (Jacob Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3374% → 72%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
74.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+1
73.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
72.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
71.9%
Evan Finegan punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:3530% → 44%
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
70.3%
Tye Evans run for 3 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
70.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q2 3:24
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+15
71.0%
Plitt, Drew pass incomplete to Tyler, Yo'Heinz, PENALTY BUFFALO pass interference (Hill, Tyrone) 15 yards to the BALLST35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BALLST.Similar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
69.4%
Justin Hall run for 11 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
67.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 2 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-4
67.3%
Drew Plitt sacked by George Wolo for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 44 Drew Plitt fumbled, recovered by BalStSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+56
56.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 56 yds for a TD, (Jacob Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11FUMBLE RETURN TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:3760% → 48%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
59.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
59.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 4 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+34
47.6%
Christian Albright 34 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Lewis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:4046% → 44%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
45.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+14
44.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 14 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13FG
17 plays · 76 yds · 5:3557% → 72%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
43.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 10 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
42.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+1
40.7%
Will Jones run for 1 yd to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+2
40.8%
Drew Plitt run for 2 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
39.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q3 13:28
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+5
39.6%
Plitt, Drew pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the BALLST38 (Wolo, George;Michel, Max), PENALTY BUFFALO offside 5 yards to the BALLST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-5
38.3%
Drew Plitt sacked by Tyrece Woods Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+21
38.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 21 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
36.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 2 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+4
35.4%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+9
34.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Isaac James-Gray for 9 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
33.4%
Tye Evans run for 7 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+7
32.6%
Tye Evans run for 7 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
30.2%
Will Jones run for 5 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
29.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Isaac James-GraySimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
29.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q3 9:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
28.3%
Jacob Lewis 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4030% → 28%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
30.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+14
29.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 14 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
30.8%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 45Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+9
28.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+2
29.5%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 3
OPP 44
-5
28.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1978% → 78%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-9
22.0%
Drew Plitt sacked by Tyrece Woods Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the BalSt 40Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 19
OWN 40
+6
22.1%
Justin Hall run for 6 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
20.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Isaac James-GraySimilar
Q3 4:51
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
21.7%
Nathan Snyder punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3024% → 22%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
23.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 15Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 15
OWN 15
+10
22.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 10 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
22.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q3 3:15
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
21.5%
Evan Finegan punt for 51 yds, downed at the BalSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1981% → 85%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
18.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 8 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
15.3%
Will Jones run for no gain to the BalSt 32Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-1
15.4%
Will Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 31Similar
Q3 1:41
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+4
15.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 51 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 4 yds to the Buff 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:1920% → 33%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
19.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 11 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
32.6%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 67 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1067% → 66%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Cody Rudy for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
32.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Dylan Koch for 1 yd to the BalSt 28Similar
Q3 0:06
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
32.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Will JonesSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
33.6%
Nathan Snyder punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
30.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted Antonio Phillips return for no gain to the BalSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 21INT
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:4869% → 68%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
31.2%
Drew Plitt run for 5 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
30.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-9
31.6%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted James Patterson return for 9 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 0:4735% → 27%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-15
34.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
32.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q4 13:29
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
32.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:26
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
30.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
27.1%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 23PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:5070% → 79%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
29.7%
Tye Evans run for 2 yds to the BalSt 4Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+3
27.1%
Tye Evans run for 3 yds to the BalSt 7Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+8
27.4%
Tye Evans run for 8 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
24.9%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+2
22.8%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-5
22.8%
BALL ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 16Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
22.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan DavisSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
20.6%
Nathan Snyder punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:4321% → 20%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
21.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 13 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+17
22.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 17 yds to the BalSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
24.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the BalSt 16Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
23.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac Lefebvre, broken up by Jaylin ThomasSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+2
22.2%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
Q4 8:31
4TH & 2
OPP 14
0
19.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kevin Marks Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:1483% → 91%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
17.1%
Tye Evans run for 1 yd to the BalSt 15Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+21
16.9%
Justin Hall run for 21 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
14.7%
Tye Evans run for 7 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
13.0%
Tye Evans run for 4 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
10.9%
Tye Evans run for 1 yd to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+2
10.1%
Justin Hall run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 7
50
+3
9.8%
Will Jones run for 3 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 5:01
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
8.6%
Drew Plitt punt for 43 yds, downed at the Buff 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 2:038% → 5%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+10
8.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 10 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
8.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+6
8.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 6 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+7
7.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 7 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
7.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 5 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
8.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+6
8.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 6 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
8.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Bernard Porter, broken up by Bryce CosbySimilar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-1
8.1%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+10
5.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
4.8%
Kevin Marks Jr. run for no gain to the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1396% → 98%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
4.5%
Tye Evans run for 2 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-2
3.3%
Tye Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 47Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 11
OPP 47
-1
2.2%
Drew Plitt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
2.3%
Nathan Snyder punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 52 yds · 0:243% → 5%
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
3.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+32
3.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 17 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+20
3.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 20 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
4.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Bernard PorterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:16
Kevin Marks Jr. run for 67 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+12.7
TD · Q2 0:48
Christian Albright 34 Yd Fumble Return (Jacob Lewis Kick)
-11.8
TD · Q2 1:30
Drew Plitt pass complete to Jalen McGaughy for 56 yds for a TD, (Jacob Lewis KICK)
-10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com