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SDSU

San Diego State 14 at BYU 28

BYU
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:10 · Ryan Rehkow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by BJ Busbee at the SDSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Pregame prior+31.3Home team on offense−2.5Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:34: Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +7.2 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. SACK · Q3 12:34: Zach Wilson sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 6 — BYU win probability +4.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:47: Jake Oldroyd 29 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +3.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:04: Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 26 — BYU win probability +8.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:53: Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 20 yds for a TD (Zach Wilson pass to Lopini Katoa for Two-Point Conversion) — BYU win probability +8.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SDSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 4:24SDSU 4th & 1 at BYU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:10BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:18BYU 4th & 1 at SDSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    70.3%−3.0
    25% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−1.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:44SDSU 4th & 10 at SDSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:00BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:18SDSU 4th & 2 at SDSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:47BYU 4th & 7 at SDSU 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.6%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−7.3
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:05SDSU 4th & 2 at BYU 28, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−1.8
    60% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−9.7
    average punt
  9. Q4 2:51SDSU 4th & 1 at BYU 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−2.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:38BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 12, up 14
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:53SDSU 4th & 13 at BYU 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:20SDSU 4th & 5 at BYU 7, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SDSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:56BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:56SDSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:08SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:34BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 10:53BYU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    93.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:5988% → 87%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
87.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 18 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
87.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 9 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-5
87.5%
Wilson, Zach pass incomplete to Pau'u, Neil, PENALTY BYU ineligible downfield on pass (Christensen, Brady) 5 yards to the BYU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+10
87.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 10 yds to the SDSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
87.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 5 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
87.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+7
87.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
87.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 21 yds to the SDSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
87.0%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Brayden CosperSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
87.0%
Zach Wilson run for 5 yds to the SDSt 5Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:5413% → 16%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
87.2%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+6
87.0%
Jordon Brookshire run for 6 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
86.9%
Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+12
86.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 12 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
86.6%
Jordon Brookshire run for 4 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+14
86.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Greg Bell for 14 yds to the BYU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
86.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
86.0%
Jordon Brookshire run for 3 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q1 5:56
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+25
84.3%
Kaegun Williams run for 25 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 8 yds Isaac Rex fumbled, forced by Michael Shawcroft, recovered by SDSt Tariq ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:4116% → 20%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
84.1%
Jordon Brookshire run for 3 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 5:14
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
83.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+6
84.0%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+6
83.9%
Tanner Kuljian run for 6 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
83.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 3 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
80.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 15 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:5781% → 80%
Q1 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 6 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
81.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 9 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
81.1%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
80.8%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
80.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q1 2:10
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
79.9%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by BJ Busbee at the SDSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6INT
12 plays · 58 yds · 6:0120% → 26%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
80.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to BJ BusbeeSimilar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
80.2%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 20Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+13
79.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Elijah Kothe for 13 yds to the SDSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
78.9%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the SDSt 38Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+4
77.8%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
77.3%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:53
2ND & 6
50
+9
76.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 9 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.2%
Jordon Brookshire run for no gain to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
75.7%
Greg Bell run for 5 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+7
75.4%
Jordon Brookshire run for 7 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
74.4%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Caden Haws) to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 5
OPP 31
+4
74.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass intercepted for a 1ST down Drew Jensen return for 11 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Greg Bell) to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:3377% → 82%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
76.9%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
76.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 7 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
76.3%
Lopini Katoa run for no gain to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+43
75.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 43 yds to the SDSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
82.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:4921% → 23%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.1%
Jordan Byrd run for 4 yds to the SDSt 29Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
77.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Ethan Dedeaux for 6 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
77.5%
Jordan Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSt 34Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
77.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+12
78.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
75.6%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
75.7%
Kaegun Williams run for no gain to the SDSt 46Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
75.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Elijah KotheSimilar
Q2 4:44
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+1
77.1%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 43 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 1 yd to the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:4379% → 76%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
78.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 11 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
78.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+11
78.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 11 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
78.4%
Zach Wilson sacked by Cameron Thomas for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 19
OWN 26
+9
77.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 9 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
76.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
75.6%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jesse Matthews at the SDSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:4125% → 25%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
74.6%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 16Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+1
74.4%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the SDSt 17Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+6
75.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 6 yds to the SDSt 23Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
75.1%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 45 yds, downed at the BYU 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11END OF HALF
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:0875% → 78%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
75.4%
Wilson, Zach pass complete to Cosper, Brayden for 5 yards to the BYU37, PENALTY BYU illegal formation 5 yards to the BYU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+2
75.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+15
74.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 15 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+19
76.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 19 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
77.3%
BYU Penalty, False Start (James Empey) to the SDSt 42Similar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+9
76.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 9 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
77.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · 67 yds · 2:2422% → 26%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
78.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Greg Bell for 28 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+22
75.9%
Greg Bell run for 22 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
74.6%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Bracken El-Bakri) to the BYU 20Similar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 5
OPP 20
+4
74.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+6
74.0%
Kaegun Williams run for 6 yds to the BYU 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
73.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 8 Kaegun Williams fumbled, forced by Kavika Fonua, recovered by BYU Seleti FevaleakiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 80 yds · 6:4778% → 82%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
78.3%
Zach Wilson sacked by Jonah Tavai for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 6Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+3
77.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q3 11:18
3RD & 9
OWN 9
+28
76.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 28 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
78.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 11 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
79.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 7 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+6
80.2%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the SDSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
80.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 4 yds to the SDSt 35Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+1
80.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the SDSt 34Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+19
79.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 19 yds to the SDSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
80.3%
Neil Pau'u run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 18Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 13
OPP 18
0
79.8%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Isaac RexSimilar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 13
OPP 18
+6
78.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 6 yds to the SDSt 12Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
81.8%
Jake Oldroyd 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 6:4121% → 25%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 8 yds to the SDSt 33Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
76.8%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
78.1%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 32Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+4
78.9%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Kaegun Williams for 4 yds to the SDSt 36Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
79.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Dominic Benson for 15 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
74.9%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+6
74.7%
Kaegun Williams run for 6 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+5
74.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
73.8%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
71.7%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Nolan GivanSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+4
74.1%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 2
OPP 28
0
74.8%
Jordon Brookshire run for no gain to the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:1183% → 96%
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
83.3%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+3
82.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+34
83.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 34 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
86.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q4 12:21
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
86.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the SDSt 34Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+14
87.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 14 yds to the SDSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
95.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 20 yds for a TD (Zach Wilson pass to Lopini Katoa for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16DOWNS
18 plays · 72 yds · 8:017% → 3%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
93.2%
Brookshire, Jordon pass complete to Bell, Greg for 9 yards to the SANDIEGOST34, PENALTY SANDIEGOST holding 10 yards to the SANDIEGOST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:34
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+12
93.8%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
93.3%
Kaegun Williams run for 5 yds to the SDSt 32Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+13
93.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Nolan Givan for 13 yds to the SDSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
93.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
93.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to TJ SullivanSimilar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+17
93.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 17 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
93.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to TJ Sullivan for 4 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+2
93.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 2 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+8
93.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Nolan Givan for 8 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
93.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+12
93.4%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 12 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
94.5%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the BYU 4Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.5%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 3:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.0%
Greg Bell run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 2:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
97.1%
Jordon Brookshire run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1298% → 99%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
97.9%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+6
98.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+1
98.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 12Similar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+13
98.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 37 yds , Jesse Matthews returns for 13 yds to the BYU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:172% → 2%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-8
98.2%
Jordon Brookshire sacked by George Udo for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 18
OPP 44
+5
98.6%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 5 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 0:53
4TH & 13
OPP 39
+27
98.5%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to TJ Sullivan for 27 yds to the BYU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
98.0%
Jordon Brookshire pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 5 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
98.1%
Jordon Brookshire pass incomplete to Isaiah RichardsonSimilar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 5
OPP 7
0
98.2%
Jordon Brookshire pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 5
OPP 7
-13
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 13 yards to the BYU 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SDSt Jordon BrookshireSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:53
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 20 yds for a TD (Zach Wilson pass to Lopini Katoa for Two-Point Conversion)
+8.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:04
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 26
+8.5
TD · Q2 8:34
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com