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Oregon 31 at USC 24

USC
2020 · Week 16 · Dec 18, 2020 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:43 · Tom Snee punt for 47 yds , Olaijah Griffin returns for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense−22.5Garbage-time factor−12.8Score differential−3.5Pregame prior+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:50: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 47 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +6.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:45: Tyler Shough pass complete to DJ Johnson for 16 yds for a TD (Henry Katleman KICK) — ORE win probability +9.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:35: Markese Stepp run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +11.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:20: Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 4 yds for a TD (Henry Katleman KICK) — ORE win probability +14.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:16: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +20.4 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 8 of 9ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:05USC 4th & 23 at USC 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:45ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:20USC 4th & 1 at ORE 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.4%−2.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:36ORE 4th & 6 at midfield, up 14
    Close callPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:05ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 46, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:38USC 4th & 15 at USC 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−3.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:49USC 4th & 3 at ORE 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.3%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−1.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    38.8%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:02USC 4th & 7 at ORE 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−8.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:25ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.9%−2.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:28USC 4th & 4 at ORE 4, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.0%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−7.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:26USC 4th & 19 at USC 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−2.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:26ORE 4th & 5 at USC 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−7.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:15USC 4th & 8 at ORE 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:16USC 4th & 4 at ORE 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−5.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:43ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:23ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:49ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:14ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:50USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:45ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:35USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:20ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:16USC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.7%−1.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5258% → 58%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
58.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
58.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 19
-14
58.1%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Deommodore Lenoir return for 24 yds to the OREGON 41 USC Penalty, Personal Foul (-10 Yards) to the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0942% → 42%
Q1 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
58.0%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
58.0%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the USC 2Similar
Q1 13:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.7%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 2 yds for a TD (Henry Katleman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 1:3558% → 57%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
57.7%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 26 USC Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (-13 Yards) to the USC 13Similar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 18
OWN 13
0
57.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 18
OWN 13
+6
57.4%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 12
OWN 19
-11
57.1%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Andrew Faoliu for a loss of 11 yards to the USC 8Similar
Q1 12:05
4TH & 23
OWN 8
0
56.8%
Ben Griffiths punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Josh Delgado at the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1043% → 43%
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
56.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Travis Dye for 2 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 11:01
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-7
56.2%
Tyler Shough sacked by Talanoa A - Hufanga and - Team for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 15
OWN 40
0
56.5%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Travis DyeSimilar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+2
56.7%
Tom Snee punt for 52 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 2 yds to the USC 42 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (5 Yards) to the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:4056% → 55%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
56.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 8 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+1
56.2%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the USC 14Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+4
55.9%
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
56.0%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
55.4%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Jamal Hill return for no gain to the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 1:1645% → 49%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
54.7%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+14
54.3%
Travis Dye run for 14 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
51.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Hunter Kampmoyer for 14 yds for a TD (Henry Katleman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:4152% → 51%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
52.1%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 22Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+25
51.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 10 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
51.9%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
51.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 6 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
51.0%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 4:20
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-2
50.9%
Markese Stepp run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2452% → 52%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
48.3%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 6
50
0
48.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 6
50
0
48.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 6
50
0
48.5%
Tom Snee punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 2:3049% → 54%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
48.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 26 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the USC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
47.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+6
47.8%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
47.8%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q1 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
47.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+12
47.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 12 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
53.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 47 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 2:3749% → 50%
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.5%
Sean Dollars run for 15 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
50.1%
Mycah Pittman run for 7 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 3
OWN 47
-4
49.8%
Tyler Shough run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 43 Tyler Shough fumbled, recovered by Oregn Tyler ShoughSimilar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+3
49.6%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
49.8%
Tom Snee punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Amon-Ra St. Brown at the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:1450% → 48%
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
50.0%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
50.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 8
OWN 10
-7
49.3%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Brandon Dorlus for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 3Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 15
OWN 3
0
48.3%
Ben Griffiths punt for 38 yds, downed at the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12TD
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:4652% → 62%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
47.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Travis Dye for 11 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
47.1%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+11
46.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 11 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
38.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to DJ Johnson for 16 yds for a TD (Henry Katleman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 4:5740% → 50%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
39.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 11 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
39.4%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+22
40.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
40.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
39.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 5 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 3
OPP 35
0
39.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:49
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+11
38.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 11 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
39.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
38.9%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+9
38.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 9 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+10
38.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 10 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.8%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14INT
8 plays · 23 yds · 3:4454% → 60%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
45.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Hunter Kampmoyer for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 13Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+3
45.8%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+9
45.2%
Travis Dye run for 9 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.6%
Sean Dollars run for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
41.2%
Sean Dollars run for 1 yd to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
41.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-34
40.5%
Tyler Shough pass intercepted Kana'i Mauga return for 34 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15MISSED FG
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:2048% → 44%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
48.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 2
OPP 18
0
48.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 2
OPP 18
-5
46.3%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 7
OPP 23
0
46.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+41
43.8%
Parker Lewis 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
41.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
16 plays · 83 yds · 7:1559% → 81%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
41.4%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+17
40.6%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-7
39.0%
Tyler Shough sacked by Talanoa A - Hufanga for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+15
41.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 15 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
38.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+11
39.4%
Anthony Brown pass complete to DJ Johnson for 11 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
37.5%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+5
37.0%
Sean Dollars run for 5 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
36.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 33Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+6
36.1%
Tyler Shough run for 6 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+23
36.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 23 yds to the USC 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
34.2%
Anthony Brown run for no gain to the USC 4Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
33.8%
Anthony Brown pass incomplete to DJ JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
18.9%
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 4 yds for a TD (Henry Katleman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18FG
15 plays · 63 yds · 4:3323% → 26%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
23.2%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 21Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
22.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
22.9%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
23.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 8 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+7
24.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+17
24.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 17 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
24.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
24.2%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+8
23.8%
Markese Stepp run for 8 yds to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
23.7%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the Oregn 4Similar
Q3 2:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
21.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
20.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q3 2:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
26.3%
Parker Lewis 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:5627% → 22%
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
26.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
25.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-9
24.3%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 39Similar
Q3 1:26
4TH & 19
OWN 39
0
22.2%
Ben Griffiths punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:5376% → 95%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
24.5%
Tyler Shough run for 9 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
23.6%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
21.5%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
21.7%
Sean Dollars run for 3 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 14:39
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+5
22.5%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+15
21.8%
USC Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
17.8%
Tyler Shough run for 4 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+15
17.6%
Sean Dollars run for 15 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
16.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
16.2%
Tyler Shough run for no gain to the USC 24Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+2
10.8%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
5.5%
Henry Katleman 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:5112% → 28%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
11.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 7 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+1
12.6%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the USC 48Similar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
10.5%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
10.3%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the Oregn 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by USC Markese Stepp Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
9.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 48
0
9.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
4TH & 8
OPP 48
+28
7.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 28 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
9.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 12 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
8.5%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
8.2%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Oregn 4Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
7.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5582% → 82%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
18.2%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 14Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 9
OWN 14
0
16.3%
Tyler Shough run for no gain to the Oregn 14Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 9
OWN 14
0
17.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 9
OWN 14
-2
17.8%
Tom Snee punt for 47 yds , Olaijah Griffin returns for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23Uncategorized
7 plays · 25 yds · 1:4324% → 26%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
23.5%
Markese Stepp run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 36Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
22.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+12
20.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
25.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
24.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 12 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
27.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 2 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
26.2%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Jamal Hill return for no gain to the Oregn 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 1:5790% → 94%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
10.4%
Anthony Brown run for 9 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
7.2%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
5.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-5
5.4%
Anthony Brown run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 38 Anthony Brown fumbled, recovered by Oregn Cyrus Habibi-LikioSimilar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 14
OWN 38
+2
5.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 12
OWN 40
+2
6.2%
Tom Snee punt for 32 yds , Tyler Vaughns returns for 2 yds to the USC 42 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25Uncategorized
3 plays · 31 yds · 0:129% → 10%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
8.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+20
8.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 20 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
10.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 11 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:16
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
+20.4
TD · Q3 7:20
Anthony Brown pass complete to Travis Dye for 4 yds for a TD (Henry Katleman KICK)
-14.9
TD · Q2 4:35
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
+11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com