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STAN

Stanford 27 at Oregon State 24

ORST
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:14: Davis Mills run for 1 yd for a TD (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +15.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:38: Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 30 yds for a TD STANFORD Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +17.7 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:03: Davis Mills run for 6 yds for a TD OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Rejzohn Wright) to the OrgSt 1 (Davis Mills pass for Two-Point Conversion) — STAN win probability +21.6 pts (now 67%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:18: Everett Hayes 26 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +12.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:48: Jet Toner 39 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +28.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 8STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 12:34ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:39ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 23, up 1
    Close callPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00STAN 4th & 12 at ORST 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    49.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:34STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:22ORST 4th & 22 at ORST 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−3.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:04STAN 4th & 2 at STAN 49, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:39ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 48, up 8
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.3%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:16STAN 4th & 9 at ORST 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−1.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−5.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:32ORST 4th & 3 at STAN 49, up 5
    Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:32STAN 4th & 17 at STAN 28, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−4.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:53ORST 4th & 13 at STAN 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−2.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:18ORST 4th & 7 at STAN 8, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−6.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−18.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:48STAN 4th & 6 at ORST 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−2.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−31.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:19ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.5%−9.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3STAN made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 9:46ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:45STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    52.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:34ORST Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:14STAN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:38ORST Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:03STAN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    56.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:1437% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
37.3%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 12 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
37.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
37.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+2
37.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 12:34
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+8
38.3%
Jack Colletto run for 8 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
38.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 12 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
38.7%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
38.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 12:34
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+6
38.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Stanf 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
38.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Stanf 18Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
42.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 18 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:5659% → 60%
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
41.2%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+9
40.9%
Austin Jones run for 9 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
40.9%
Mills,D pass incomplete to Tremayne,B, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Wright, Nahshon) 6 yards to the STAN46, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
40.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 10 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
43.1%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+7
43.2%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+13
43.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 13 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
42.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 12 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
40.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Tucker Fisk for 12 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
42.8%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+4
42.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+5
42.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 5 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+30
42.3%
Luke Loecher punt for 45 yds OREGON ST Penalty, kick catching interference (Tre'Shaun Harrison) to the Stanf 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:5858% → 55%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
41.6%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
41.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+7
41.5%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
41.3%
Nathaniel Peat run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 15
OPP 43
-1
41.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Elijah Higgins for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 16
OPP 44
+4
42.3%
Davis Mills run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
44.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 2:1945% → 54%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+61
44.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 61 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
47.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+14
47.1%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 14 yds to the Stanf 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
53.9%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 8 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
52.6%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
52.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 3 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+10
52.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 10 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
51.4%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Nathaniel Peat, broken up by Andrzej Hughes-MurraySimilar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
52.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
52.5%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Elijah Higgins, broken up by Jaydon GrantSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
53.7%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
53.7%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 14 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-15
54.0%
Jefferson, J. rush for loss of 3 yards to the OSU31 (Williams,N), PENALTY OSU personal foul (Levengood, Jake) 15 yards to the OSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 25
OWN 19
0
53.6%
Chance Nolan run for no gain to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 25
OWN 19
-4
53.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 29
OWN 0
0
53.0%
Jefferson, J. rush for 26 yards to the OSU41 (Herron,S), PENALTY OSU holding off-setting, PENALTY STAN holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 29
OWN 15
+7
53.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 7 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 22
OWN 22
0
52.3%
Luke Loecher punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0042% → 43%
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
57.6%
Jones,A rush for no gain to the STAN41 (Julian, Alton), PENALTY STAN holding (Hornibrook,J) 10 yards to the STAN31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+15
59.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 15 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+3
56.6%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
56.4%
Davis Mills run for no gain to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
57.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Kolby Taylor at the OrgSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
59.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 11 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
60.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
61.1%
Chance Nolan run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.9%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tyjon LindseySimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
61.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 6 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
61.1%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Kolby Taylor, broken up by Jonathan McGillSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 4
OWN 48
0
60.2%
Luke Loecher punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10FG
8 plays · 57 yds · 1:1437% → 42%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
63.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 5 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+40
63.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 40 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
59.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 11 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
58.0%
Davis Mills sacked by Isaac Hodgins for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+5
61.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 5 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
60.4%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
58.2%
Jet Toner 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:4458% → 59%
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
57.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 19 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
59.9%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Jermar JeffersonSimilar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
59.2%
Chance Nolan run for 9 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-2
59.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 0:32
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
59.3%
Chance Nolan punt for 22 yds, downed at the Stanf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:2239% → 39%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+21
60.7%
Austin Jones run for 21 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
58.4%
Mills,D pass complete to Fehoko,S for 52 yards to the OSU0, clock 00:00, PENALTY STAN holding (Dalman,D) 10 yards to the STAN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 38
-2
60.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:3946% → 62%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
54.0%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
52.9%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
52.4%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Stanf 42Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 42
0
52.6%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+57
53.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 57 yds to the OrgSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.7%
Davis Mills run for 1 yd for a TD (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3644% → 65%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
43.6%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
46.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
45.1%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+9
44.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+7
46.2%
Jack Colletto run for 7 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
47.6%
Chance Nolan run for 1 yd to the Stanf 44Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+6
47.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+8
47.1%
Jack Colletto run for 8 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
64.8%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 30 yds for a TD STANFORD Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0043% → 39%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
57.0%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
55.9%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-8
57.3%
Davis Mills sacked by Nahshon Wright for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 28 Davis Mills fumbled, recovered by Stanf Davis Mills , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 17
OWN 28
0
60.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0064% → 60%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
63.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
64.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+9
63.5%
Jack Colletto run for 9 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
65.2%
Chance Nolan sacked by Dalyn Wade-Perry for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 47Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 13
OPP 47
0
63.5%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 13
OPP 47
0
61.8%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 13
OPP 47
+57
59.8%
Luke Loecher punt for 47 yds for a touchback STANFORD Penalty, Offensive holding (Donjae Logan)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
13 plays · 90 yds · 6:1040% → 67%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
60.2%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the Stanf 16Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+5
60.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 5 yds to the Stanf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
59.9%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+10
59.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 10 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
58.9%
Davis Mills sacked by Kitan Oladapo for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 29 Davis Mills fumbled, recovered by Stanf Nathaniel Peat , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+20
60.6%
Austin Jones run for 20 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
55.6%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+6
54.4%
Davis Mills run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
56.9%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
54.7%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+18
56.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 18 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
54.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 7 yds to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
33.1%
Davis Mills run for 6 yds for a TD OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Rejzohn Wright) to the OrgSt 1 (Davis Mills pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18FG
15 plays · 67 yds · 5:4542% → 57%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
41.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
41.5%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 13 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
43.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+5
46.2%
B.J. Baylor run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
46.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 3 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
47.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Teagan QuitorianoSimilar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+25
45.9%
B.J. Baylor run for 25 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
50.0%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 9 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
50.0%
Calvin Tyler Jr. run for 3 yds to the Stanf 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
50.0%
Kolby Taylor run for 1 yd to the Stanf 10Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
50.0%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to B.J. BaylorSimilar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+7
47.1%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tre'Shaun Harrison for 7 yds to the Stanf 3Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 2
OPP 3
-5
44.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 8Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
56.5%
Everett Hayes 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 5:2451% → 86%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
48.9%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Stanf 18Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+16
49.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 16 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
47.6%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
45.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 7 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
44.6%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+30
45.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to John Humphreys for 30 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
41.1%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+7
41.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Houston Heimuli for 7 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 1
OPP 16
-5
43.1%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (Scooter Harrington) to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
43.2%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q4 1:48
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+39
14.4%
Jet Toner 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20FUMBLE
12 plays · 49 yds · 0:5332% → 33%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
31.7%
Chance Nolan run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
35.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
30.4%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Tre'Shaun HarrisonSimilar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+3
28.0%
Chance Nolan pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 3 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
31.6%
Chance Nolan pass complete to B.J. Baylor for 8 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
33.3%
Chance Nolan pass incomplete to Zeriah BeasonSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+11
29.3%
Chance Nolan run for 11 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
33.2%
Chance Nolan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
32.8%
Chance Nolan run for 5 yds to the Stanf 16 Chance Nolan fumbled, forced by Gabe Reid, recovered by Stanf Caleb RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0393% → 93%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
6.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 14Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 14
-2
6.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:48
Jet Toner 39 yd FG GOOD
-28.9
TD · Q4 13:03
Davis Mills run for 6 yds for a TD OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Rejzohn Wright) to the OrgSt 1 (Davis Mills pass for Two-Point Conversion)
-21.6
TD · Q3 8:38
Chance Nolan pass complete to Tyjon Lindsey for 30 yds for a TD STANFORD Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Everett Hayes KICK)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com