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ASU

Arizona State 70 at Arizona 7

ARIZ
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 11, 2020 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:01 · TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:21: Jayden Daniels run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK) — ASU win probability +5.1 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:15: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 31 yds for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK) — ASU win probability +3.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:25: Daniyel Ngata run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK) — ASU win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:38: Michael Wiley run for 20 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +2.7 pts (now 7%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:29: Rachaad White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK) — ARIZ win probability +0.5 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 9:39ASU 4th & 4 at ARIZ 22, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.8%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−1.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:29ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:30ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 38, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:16ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 31, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:17ARIZ 4th & 2 at ASU 33, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:32ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 23, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:28ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 23, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:29ASU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 1, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:52ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 27, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:12ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 32, down 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:57ASU 4th & 13 at midfield, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:38ASU 4th & 4 at ARIZ 25, up 56
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:09ASU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 28, up 63
    Close callWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:06ARIZ 4th & 6 at ASU 32, down 63
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1ASU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 14:04ASU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:21ASU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:45ASU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:15ASU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:25ASU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:38ARIZ Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:28ASU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 6:29ASU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 4:00ASU Touchdown, up 55 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:02ASU Touchdown, up 62 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 2FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:1526% → 26%
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
25.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Gary Brightwell for no gain to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-3
25.9%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 4 Gary Brightwell fumbled, recovered by ArzStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3TD
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
25.7%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 4 yds for a TD, (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:2126% → 26%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.7%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
25.7%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 8 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
25.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
25.8%
Grant Gunnell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
25.7%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Ma'jon WrightSimilar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
25.6%
Grant Gunnell pass intercepted Kyle Soelle return for no gain to the Ariz 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:3775% → 75%
Q1 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
25.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 2 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+13
25.4%
Rachaad White run for 13 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
25.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 2 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
25.1%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+2
25.0%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+40
25.2%
Christian Zendejas 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6DOWNS
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:4325% → 25%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
25.3%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
25.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Bryce Wolma for no gain to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+10
24.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 10 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
25.1%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-10
25.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 20
OWN 22
+5
25.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 5 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 15
OWN 33
-4
24.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Gary Brightwell for 6 yds to the Ariz 33 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 19
OWN 23
+18
24.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 18 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 1
OWN 41
0
25.2%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Ariz 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:5976% → 82%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
23.6%
Daniyel Ngata run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+4
23.6%
Jayden Daniels run for 4 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+13
23.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 13 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
23.1%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 5 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+2
23.0%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 2 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+20
17.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8FUMBLE
14 plays · 71 yds · 4:1619% → 18%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
19.0%
Gary Brightwell run for 12 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
19.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Brian Casteel for 9 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
19.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for no gain to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+2
19.0%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
18.6%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
18.5%
Michael Wiley run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
18.4%
Grant Gunnell run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
18.5%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+11
18.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
18.0%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+10
18.0%
Gary Brightwell run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
18.1%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 4 Gary Brightwell fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Michael MatusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 96 yds · 0:3585% → 85%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
15.2%
Rachaad White run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 7 Rachaad White fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Jayden DanielsSimilar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+93
15.3%
Rachaad White run for 93 yds for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1014% → 14%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.3%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Brian CasteelSimilar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
14.0%
Grant Gunnell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26 Grant Gunnell fumbled, forced by Jermayne Lole, recovered by ArzSt Tyler JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD
3 plays · 26 yds · 1:0785% → 89%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-10
14.7%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 20
OPP 36
+5
14.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Case Hatch for 5 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+31
11.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 31 yds for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:2010% → 7%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
9.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 9 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 9:27
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+2
9.3%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
9.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 8 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 2
OWN 37
0
8.9%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
8.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 1
OWN 38
-2
7.4%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:0092% → 95%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
7.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Curtis HodgesSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
7.6%
Daniyel Ngata run for no gain to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+22
7.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 22 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
6.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 19Similar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+16
6.4%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Daniyel Ngata for 16 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.3%
Daniyel Ngata run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:255% → 7%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
4.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 11 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
4.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 9 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q2 4:26
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+6
4.4%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+29
4.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 29 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
7.1%
Michael Wiley run for 20 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5995% → 94%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
5.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 3 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
5.4%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
5.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to LV Bunkley-SheltonSimilar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
5.7%
Michael Turk punt for 49 yds , Jamarye Joiner returns for no gain to the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 1:545% → 2%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
5.4%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Gary BrightwellSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
5.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 8 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
5.3%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
4.9%
Will Plummer sacked by Tyler Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+13
3.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 13 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+20
3.2%
Will Plummer run for 20 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
3.4%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Stanley Berryhill IIISimilar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
3.2%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+8
3.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Gary Brightwell for 8 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 0:17
4TH & 2
OPP 33
0
2.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
3.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 2 yds · 1:174% → 3%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
4.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 5 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-5
3.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 21Similar
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
3.5%
Rachaad White run for no gain to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
2.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-48
3.2%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 48 yards to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
2.9%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Jamarye JoinerSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
2.7%
Tyler Loop punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
2.7%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
2.7%
Tyler Loop punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 3:0097% → 98%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
3.0%
Rachaad White run for 6 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-16
2.9%
Rachaad White run for a loss of 16 yards to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-10
2.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+37
2.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Johnny Wilson for 37 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
2.4%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 6 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+7
2.2%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 7 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
2.1%
Rachaad White run for 7 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.8%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20FUMBLE
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:232% → 2%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
1.6%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 30 Gary Brightwell fumbled, forced by Michael Matus, recovered by ArzSt Kejuan MarkhamSimilar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
1.5%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 30 Gary Brightwell fumbled, forced by Michael Matus, recovered by ArzSt Kejuan MarkhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 30 yds · 2:3198% → 98%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
1.7%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 18 Jayden Daniels fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Jayden Daniels for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
1.6%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 9 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+2
1.5%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 2 yds to the Ariz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
1.2%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 2 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
1.2%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 1 yd to the Ariz 4Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
1.2%
Ricky Pearsall run for 3 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.7%
Rachaad White run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:301% → 1%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Brian CasteelSimilar
Q3 6:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.6%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 5:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
0.5%
Will Plummer run for 1 yd to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+9
0.5%
Tyler Loop punt for 45 yds , Rachaad White returns for 9 yds to the ArzSt 36 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ArzSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:2399% → 99%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
1.1%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-5
1.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+74
1.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Curtis Hodges for 74 yds for a TD (Jack Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:321% → 0%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.5%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.4%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.4%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 7 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 2:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
0.4%
Tyler Loop punt for 64 yds, downed at the ArzSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 5:0399% → 100%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
1.2%
Daniyel Ngata run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+5
0.8%
Daniyel Ngata run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
0.7%
Daniyel Ngata run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
0.6%
Daniyel Ngata run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 14:43
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+5
0.6%
Daniyel Ngata run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
0.5%
Daniyel Ngata run for 8 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
0.5%
D.J. Taylor run for 1 yd to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+4
0.5%
D.J. Taylor run for 4 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 5
OPP 35
-8
0.4%
Daniyel Ngata run for 7 yds to the Ariz 35 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 13
50
0
0.4%
Trenton Bourguet pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:57
4TH & 13
50
0
0.5%
Michael Turk punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
0.2%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Jalen John for 11 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
0.2%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incomplete to Jalen JohnSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
0.2%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Thomas Reid III for 6 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
0.2%
Rhett Rodriguez pass intercepted Caleb McCullough return for no gain to the Ariz 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 3:28100% → 100%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
0.3%
Daniyel Ngata run for 8 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+4
0.3%
Daniyel Ngata run for 4 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
0.3%
Jackson He run for 2 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+2
0.3%
Jackson He run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+2
0.3%
Jackson He run for 2 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+24
0.3%
Trenton Bourguet pass complete to Case Hatch for 24 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Jackson He run for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Luckhurst KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:240% → 0%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-14
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass intercepted Jordan Banks return for 14 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:43100% → 100%
Q4 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
0.2%
Daniyel Ngata run for 2 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+2
0.2%
Daniyel Ngata run for 2 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-4
0.2%
Daniyel Ngata run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+7
0.3%
Daniyel Ngata run for 7 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 30DOWNS
12 plays · 47 yds · 2:570% → 0%
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+7
0.1%
Nathan Tilford run for 7 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q4 3:22
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+6
0.1%
Nathan Tilford run for 6 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+8
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 8 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+6
0.1%
Stanley Berryhill III run for 6 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Zach Williams for 8 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+8
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 8 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incomplete to Stanley Berryhill IIISimilar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass complete to Jalen John for 4 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 6
OPP 32
0
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incomplete to Ma'jon WrightSimilar
Q4 1:06
4TH & 6
OPP 32
0
0.1%
Rhett Rodriguez pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 31END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:44100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 14
OWN 28
-4
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:21
Jayden Daniels run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK)
-5.1
TD · Q2 10:15
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 31 yds for a TD, (Jack Luckhurst KICK)
-3.5
TD · Q2 3:38
Michael Wiley run for 20 yds for a TD, (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
+2.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com