2020 · Week 14 · Dec 6, 2020 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreWSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:44 · Ben Griffiths punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:46: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +0.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q1 5:11: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 22 yds for a TD WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +2.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:33: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +5.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:44: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +4.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:11: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 35 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 15:00WSU 4th & 1 at USC 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.5%71% to convertField goal22.3%−0.245% to makePunt22.2%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:41WSU 4th & 6 at WSU 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snapGo for it21.9%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q2 11:09WSU 4th & 24 at USC 42, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it3.4%−2.27% to convertField goal4.9%−0.730% to makePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q3 15:00USC 4th & 2 at WSU 39, up 29Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%57% to convertField goal97.9%−0.336% to makePunt98.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 11:53USC 4th & 15 at WSU 31, up 29Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.6%−0.217% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%54% to makePunt98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:48USC 4th & 13 at WSU 14, up 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.118% to convertField goalTheir call99.2%84% to makePunt98.7%−0.4average punt
- Q3 9:48WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 28, down 32Close callPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:44USC 4th & 30 at USC 49, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q3 0:54WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 35, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00WSU 4th & 14 at WSU 34, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q4 14:07USC 4th & 7 at USC 49, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 6:37WSU 4th & 2 at USC 30, down 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goal0.1%−0.156% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 8:46USC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.4%97% to makeGo for two77.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:11USC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.2%97% to makeGo for two80.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:33USC Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.0%97% to makeGo for two87.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:44USC Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:11USC Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:28WSU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call1.9%97% to makeGo for two1.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:37WSU Touchdown, down 26 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%−0.197% to makeGo for two0.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1DOWNS10 plays · 40 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
80.2%
[NHSG], PENALTY WSU false start (Liam Ryan) 5 yards to the WSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+17
80.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 17 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
80.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 5 yds to the WshSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
80.2%
[NHSG], PENALTY WSU false start (Brian Greene) 5 yards to the USC49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+9
80.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Renard Bell for 9 yds to the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD7 plays · 65 yds · 2:5079% → 80%
Q1 11:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+20
79.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 20 yds to the WshSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+30
79.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 30 yds to the WshSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
79.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for 3 yds to the WshSt 10Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+3
79.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 3 yds Drake London fumbled, forced by George Hicks III,Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
80.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 7 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
USCDrive 4TD5 plays · 34 yds · 2:2081% → 83%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
80.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 36Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+13
80.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 13 yds to the WshSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
80.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 3 yds to the WshSt 20Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+22
83.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 22 yds for a TD WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5INT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 5:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Renard Bell for 6 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
82.4%
Oscar Draguicevich punt 45 yards to the USC24, St. Brown, Amon-Ra return to the USC39, out-of-bounds (Halid Djibril), PENALTY USC roughing the kicker (Jountti, Quincy) 5 yards to the WSU36, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-37
82.1%
Jayden de Laura pass intercepted Talanoa Hufanga return for 37 yds to the WshSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD1 play · 4 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q1 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 7INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.2%
Jayden de Laura pass intercepted Olaijah Griffin return for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD4 plays · 31 yds · 1:4088% → 92%
WSUDrive 9PUNT13 plays · 34 yds · 4:317% → 6%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
93.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Renard Bell for 5 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+14
92.7%
Jayden de Laura run for 4 yds to the WshSt 33 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Defensive holding (Chris Steele) to the WshSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
92.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 9 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
93.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Renard Bell for 11 yds to the USC 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-8
92.7%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Nick Figueroa for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 36
-12
93.4%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Nick Figueroa for a loss of 12 yards to the USC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD7 plays · 80 yds · 3:5194% → 97%
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+23
94.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 23 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 3
50
+6
94.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 6 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
94.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 8 yds to the WshSt 36Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+35
96.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 35 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 11TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:433% → 2%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 1 yd to the WshSt 26Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
97.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Renard Bell for 6 yds to the WshSt 32Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+24
97.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 24 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
96.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Renard Bell for 14 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
96.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 2 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 8
OPP 0
0
96.9%
[SG], Deon McIntosh rush for 1 yard to the USC15 (Mauga, Kana'i), PENALTY USC personal foul off-setting, PENALTY WSU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+5
96.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 5 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+4
96.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Travell Harris for 4 yds to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13FG9 plays · 16 yds · 3:0799% → 99%
WSUDrive 14FUMBLE2 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
98.8%
Jayden de Laura run for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 22 Jayden de Laura fumbled, recovered by USC Chase WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15MISSED FG7 plays · 8 yds · 2:0199% → 99%
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
99.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 11 yds to the WshSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
99.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 4 yds to the WshSt 7Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-7
99.4%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Brennan Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the WshSt 14Similar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 13
OPP 14
0
99.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Markese Stepp, broken up by Jahad WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Renard Bell for 6 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
99.4%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Lucas Bacon for 3 yds to the WshSt 29Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-1
99.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Renard Bell for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 28Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 2
OWN 28
-2
99.3%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 39 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT11 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q3 7:44
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+10
99.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 10 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
99.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 3 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
99.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 8 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+13
99.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 13 yds to the WshSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-11
99.5%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Quinn Roff for a loss of 11 yards to the WshSt 42 Kedon Slovis fumbled, recovered by USC Kedon Slovis , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 7:44
3RD & 25
OPP 46
-5
99.5%
Matt Fink pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 30
OWN 49
0
99.4%
Ben Griffiths punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Travell Harris at the WshSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18PUNT12 plays · 19 yds · 3:090% → 0%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
99.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin, broken up by Hunter EcholsSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+8
99.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Renard Bell for 8 yds to the WshSt 35Similar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
99.9%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Talanoa Hufanga for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Deon McIntosh for 1 yd to the WshSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Oscar Draguicevich III punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
WSUDrive 20TD19 plays · 93 yds · 10:380% → 0%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
99.9%
Gunner Cruz sacked by Nick Figueroa for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 6Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+12
99.9%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Lucas Bacon for 12 yds to the WshSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
99.9%
[NHSG], Clay Markoff rush for 4 yards to the WSU22 (Pepe, Kobe), PENALTY USC offside (Taylor-Stuart, Isaac) 5 yards to the WSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 5
OWN 23
+6
99.9%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Renard Bell for 6 yds to the WshSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 9 yds to the WshSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
100.0%
Cammon Cooper pass complete to Travell Harris for 10 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+7
100.0%
Cammon Cooper pass complete to Clay Markoff for 7 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
100.0%
[NHSG], Gunner Cruz pass incomplete to Jamire Calvin, PENALTY USC pass interference (Taylor-Stuart, Isaac) 15 yards to the USC11, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
100.0%
Cammon Cooper pass complete to Travell Harris for 5 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+6
99.8%
Gunner Cruz pass complete to Renard Bell for 6 yds for a TD (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:33
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q1 0:44
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q1 5:11
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 22 yds for a TD WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined (Parker Lewis KICK)
+2.7