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COLO

Colorado 24 at Arizona 13

ARIZ
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:53 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 13:36: Lucas Havrisik 42 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +7.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:38: Ashaad Clayton run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Price KICK) — COLO win probability +10.0 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Deficit intensified by the shrinking clock).
  3. TD · Q2 3:00: Ashaad Clayton run for 4 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK) — COLO win probability +13.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:20: Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 46 — ARIZ win probability +7.1 pts (now 43%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:22: Sam Noyer run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK) — COLO win probability +12.0 pts (now 79%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 8 of 11COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:33COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:26COLO 4th & 14 at COLO 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:37ARIZ 4th & 6 at COLO 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:36ARIZ 4th & 5 at COLO 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−5.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:36COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:58ARIZ 4th & 11 at COLO 46, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    51.1%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:32ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:21ARIZ 4th & 7 at midfield, down 1
    Close callPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:20ARIZ 4th & 18 at ARIZ 49, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−2.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:15ARIZ 4th & 14 at COLO 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%−0.6
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:09COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 37, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 40, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:36ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:13ARIZ 4th & 5 at COLO 5, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.0%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    6.1%−12.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:26COLO 4th & 1 at ARIZ 1, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.6%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    86.1%−6.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:22ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 35, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:26ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:38COLO Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:00COLO Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:22COLO Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
26.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
26.9%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
26.9%
Tyler Loop punt for 53 yds, downed at the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
27.6%
Sam Noyer pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 10 yds to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
27.6%
Sam Noyer pass complete to K.D. Nixon for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 25Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+2
27.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
27.7%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Dimitri StanleySimilar
Q1 13:33
4TH & 12
OWN 27
+33
27.7%
Josh Watts punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 40 , Jamarye Joiner returns for 33 yds to the Colo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 1:2029% → 31%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
28.9%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
28.9%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+14
28.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Brian Casteel for 14 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
28.9%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
31.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 26 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 12 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
30.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+8
30.1%
Sam Noyer pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
50
0
30.0%
Dimitri Stanley pass incomplete, broken up by Issaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
50
-3
30.1%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 13
OWN 47
-10
30.5%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 23
OWN 37
+9
30.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 9 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 10:26
4TH & 14
OWN 46
0
30.7%
Josh Watts punt for 49 yds, downed at the Ariz 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5FG
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0433% → 36%
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
32.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 7Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+29
32.8%
Michael Wiley run for 29 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
33.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 31Similar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+45
32.9%
Michael Wiley run for 45 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
33.6%
Michael Wiley run for 1 yd to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+3
33.6%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 7:41
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
33.4%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+38
36.3%
Lucas Havrisik 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6FUMBLE
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
35.5%
Sam Noyer pass complete to C.J. Schmanski for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
34.9%
Sam Noyer run for 5 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
35.0%
Sam Noyer sacked by Roy Lopez for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 38Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+6
35.2%
Sam Noyer pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 6 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+7
34.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Daniel Arias for 7 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
34.6%
ARIZONA Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-3
34.2%
Sam Noyer pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for a loss of 3 yards La'Vontae Shenault fumbled, forced by Isaiah Mays, recovered by Ariz Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
34.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FG
7 plays · 29 yds · 2:5340% → 49%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
39.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 13 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
40.1%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+5
40.1%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Colo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
40.2%
Will Plummer pass complete to Gary Brightwell for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+4
41.7%
Will Plummer pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 4 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
-1
41.2%
Will Plummer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
49.1%
Lucas Havrisik 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
46.3%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Colo 25 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
45.8%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 39Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+6
46.0%
Sam Noyer pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 6 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
45.5%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete, broken up by Trevon MasonSimilar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
46.3%
Josh Watts punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jamarye Joiner at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
51.5%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 12Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 13
OWN 12
+1
51.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 1 yd to the Ariz 13Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 12
OWN 13
+42
50.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to Brian Casteel for 42 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
53.0%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
53.0%
Will Plummer run for no gain to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-6
52.3%
Will Plummer sacked by Isaiah Lewis and Carson Wells for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 46Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
50.9%
Tyler Loop punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10TD
5 plays · 95 yds · 1:4646% → 60%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+75
53.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 75 yds to the Ariz 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
50.0%
Ashaad Clayton run for 17 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
50.0%
Ashaad Clayton run for 2 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.1%
Ashaad Clayton run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
46.9%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the Ariz 19Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
46.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 6 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 4
OWN 25
-2
46.2%
Will Plummer sacked by Terrance Lang and Isaiah Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 23Similar
Q2 6:32
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
45.0%
Tyler Loop punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:4154% → 69%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
45.8%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to La'Vontae ShenaultSimilar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+13
46.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 13 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
44.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+59
44.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 59 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
31.3%
Ashaad Clayton run for 4 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
11 plays · 25 yds · 1:3937% → 37%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.0%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 8 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
38.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
38.0%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 1 yd to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
38.0%
Will Plummer run for 3 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+6
38.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
39.9%
Will Plummer pass complete to Gary Brightwell for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 7
50
0
40.4%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 7
50
0
39.2%
Will Plummer pass incomplete, broken up by Christian GonzalezSimilar
Q2 1:21
4TH & 7
50
+5
36.8%
Tyler Loop punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 9 , Dimitri Stanley returns for 5 yds to the Colo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
36.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+1
35.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0064% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
35.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-7
35.5%
Sam Noyer pass intercepted Anthony Pandy return for 7 yds to the Colo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0043% → 38%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
42.6%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 13
OPP 46
0
40.6%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 13
OPP 46
-5
39.4%
Will Plummer sacked by Mustafa Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 14:20
4TH & 18
OWN 49
0
37.5%
Tyler Loop punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:3763% → 79%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
37.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
37.4%
Jaren Mangham run for 2 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+12
38.4%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 12 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
36.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
35.0%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+54
35.4%
Sam Noyer run for 54 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
33.4%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
21.4%
Sam Noyer run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 36 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
25.4%
Will Plummer pass complete to Brian Casteel for 15 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
26.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+9
27.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
50
+7
28.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 7 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+6
28.9%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
28.8%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-1
30.1%
Michael Wiley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 9:15
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-8
28.5%
Will Plummer sacked by Carson Wells for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 14
OPP 41
0
24.4%
Tyler Loop punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
23.7%
Sam Noyer pass complete to K.D. Nixon for 13 yds to the Colo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
22.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
22.2%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to K.D. Nixon, broken up by Lorenzo BurnsSimilar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
22.7%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to La'Vontae ShenaultSimilar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
24.1%
Josh Watts punt for 51 yds, downed at the Ariz 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20INT
9 plays · 84 yds · 0:0022% → 28%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
22.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+12
22.3%
Will Plummer pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 12 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
22.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+19
22.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 19 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
25.1%
Will Plummer run for 16 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+33
26.2%
Michael Wiley run for 33 yds to the Colo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
27.6%
COLORADO Penalty, personal foul (2 Yards) to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
27.7%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 4Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
27.6%
Will Plummer pass intercepted Nigel Bethel Jr. return for 2 yds to the Colo 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:2279% → 80%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
21.2%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Colo 3Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+28
21.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 28 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
19.9%
Joe Davis run for 3 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 34
-2
19.6%
Joe Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+8
21.0%
Sam Noyer pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 8 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
20.2%
Josh Watts punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
19.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 12 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
20.2%
Will Plummer run for 3 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-5
21.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 31Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
19.6%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+4
18.6%
Will Plummer run for 4 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+26
18.1%
Tyler Loop punt for 43 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 26 yds to the Colo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23INT
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
15.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 5
OPP 47
-3
14.5%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 8
50
+32
14.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 32 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
13.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Ariz 17Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 9
OPP 17
-14
13.9%
Sam Noyer pass intercepted Anthony Pandy return for 8 yds to the Ariz 9 ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the Ariz 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 88 yds · 3:0618% → 16%
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+27
18.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 27 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
19.4%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Ma'jon WrightSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+15
19.2%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
22.0%
Gary Brightwell run for 9 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+17
23.3%
Will Plummer run for 17 yds to the Colo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
25.2%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Brian CasteelSimilar
Q4 9:19
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
25.0%
Will Plummer run for 3 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+15
23.2%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Colo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
25.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Colo 5Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
25.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Colo 3Similar
Q4 9:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
23.4%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 5Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
16.0%
Will Plummer pass incomplete to Brian Casteel, broken up by Mekhi BlackmonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25FG
10 plays · 94 yds · 3:4190% → 95%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
9.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+4
9.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Colo 11Similar
Q4 6:07
3RD & 4
OWN 11
+5
10.4%
Sam Noyer run for 5 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
9.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+72
9.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 72 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
7.4%
Joe Davis run for 3 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
7.4%
Joe Davis run for 2 yds to the Ariz 3Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
4.9%
Sam Noyer run for 2 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q4 2:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
4.9%
Evan Price 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:045% → 2%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Boobie Curry for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
4.8%
Will Plummer pass complete to Boobie Curry for 6 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
4.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Ariz 27Similar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+3
4.5%
Will Plummer pass complete to Michael Wiley for 3 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 17
OWN 30
-4
4.5%
Will Plummer sacked by Nate Landman for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 26Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+9
2.4%
Will Plummer run for 9 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
2.3%
Will Plummer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 12
OPP 37
-1
3.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:00
Ashaad Clayton run for 4 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)
-13.5
TD · Q3 9:22
Sam Noyer run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)
-12
TD · Q2 6:38
Ashaad Clayton run for 1 yd for a TD (Evan Price KICK)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com