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ORE

Oregon 17 at California 21

CAL
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:31 · TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:31: Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +11.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:08: Tyler Shough pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 39 yds for a TD OREGON Penalty, False Start (Alex Forsyth) to the Cal 8 OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu) to the Cal 23 (Henry Katleman KICK) — ORE win probability +11.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:23: Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD (Henry Katleman KICK) — ORE win probability +13.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:14: Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 28 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +20.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:49: TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 32 — CAL win probability +20.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 10ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:59ORE 4th & 12 at ORE 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:25CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:06ORE 4th & 3 at CAL 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:23CAL 4th & 1 at ORE 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    32.5%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:46CAL 4th & 10 at CAL 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:35CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:09ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:14CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:17ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:48CAL 4th & 23 at CAL 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−7.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:48ORE 4th & 1 at CAL 18, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.4%−4.2
    79% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−17.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:56CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 21, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−4.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:26CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−7.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:56ORE 4th & 18 at ORE 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−4.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:17CAL 4th & 3 at ORE 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    80.0%−3.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−6.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:01CAL 4th & 5 at ORE 25, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−11.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 2:23CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:31CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:08ORE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:23ORE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:14CAL Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:5071% → 70%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
29.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 10 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
29.5%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-5
29.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-3
29.8%
Travis Dye run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
30.2%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
30.3%
Tom Snee punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2030% → 31%
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
30.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
30.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
30.6%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
30.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Travis Dye at the Oregn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1369% → 68%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
30.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 11 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
30.9%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
30.9%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
30.8%
Tyler Shough run for 12 yds to the CALIFORNIA 44 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
31.0%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+26
31.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Travis Dye for 18 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Josh Drayden) to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
31.1%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
31.2%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
31.4%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
31.6%
Henry Katleman 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3532% → 37%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
31.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
31.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 4 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+18
32.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 18 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
33.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+5
33.4%
Bradrick Shaw run for 5 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+13
33.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Drew Schlegel for 13 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
34.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
34.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 4 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+14
34.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 14 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
34.7%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 5 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.9%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
34.5%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q1 2:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.8%
Chase Garbers run for 1 yd for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5464% → 64%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
36.3%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
36.3%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-1
36.3%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6TD
22 plays · 80 yds · 9:3838% → 57%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
37.7%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 14
OWN 16
0
37.7%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:42
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+13
37.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 13 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 14:25
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+5
37.4%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
38.7%
Nikko Remigio run for 7 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+2
40.1%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
40.0%
Damien Moore run for 6 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
41.0%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 9
50
+2
41.6%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+10
41.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 10 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
42.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
42.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 2 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+21
42.5%
Chase Garbers run for 21 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
44.1%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 5
OPP 10
-5
44.5%
Chase Garbers sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+11
45.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kayvon Thibodeaux) to the Oregn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
46.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.5%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q2 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
45.7%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Bennett Williams) to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.7%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1346% → 58%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
53.9%
Tyler Shough run for 14 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
54.6%
Tyler Shough run for 6 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
54.8%
CJ Verdell run for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 3:41
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+22
55.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 22 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-10
54.1%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (T.J. Bass) to the Cal 43Similar
Q2 2:54
1ST & 20
OPP 43
0
56.9%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+4
57.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 4 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 16
OPP 39
+39
45.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 39 yds for a TD OREGON Penalty, False Start (Alex Forsyth) to the Cal 8 OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu) to the Cal 23 (Henry Katleman KICK)Similar
Q2 2:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-15
42.2%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu) to the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 1:0847% → 47%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.3%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
47.5%
Damien Moore run for 7 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
47.9%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
49.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
48.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
47.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
46.8%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:1353% → 69%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+67
47.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Travis Dye for 67 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
42.7%
Tyler Shough run for 7 yds to the Cal 1Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.4%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD (Henry Katleman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1937% → 35%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.3%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
37.2%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for no gain to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
35.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q3 13:35
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
35.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Josh Delgado at the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2065% → 63%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
35.1%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Mycah PittmanSimilar
Q3 13:19
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
35.7%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-1
34.5%
Tyler Shough sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 12:09
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
37.2%
Tom Snee punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:5137% → 37%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
36.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q3 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+9
37.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 9 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
37.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 11 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
38.1%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
38.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q3 10:14
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
36.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, downed at the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2463% → 62%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
37.0%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 17
0
37.7%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+11
37.5%
Tyler Shough run for 11 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
35.6%
Tyler Shough run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+11
36.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 11 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-10
34.9%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Ryan Walk) to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 7:47
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
37.7%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:1340% → 64%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
39.6%
Marcel Dancy run for 9 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+14
42.4%
Marcel Dancy run for 14 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
43.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 3 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+10
43.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 10 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
63.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 28 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3444% → 41%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
56.4%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
55.8%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
57.9%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:17
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+49
59.3%
Tom Snee punt for 49 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:1960% → 59%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
60.1%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
61.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Collin Moore for 1 yd to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+13
60.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 13 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
63.8%
Chase Garbers sacked by TEAM for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 11
OWN 39
-3
62.9%
Damien Moore run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 14
OWN 36
-9
60.6%
Chase Garbers sacked by Bennett Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 0:48
4TH & 23
OWN 27
0
59.4%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 38 yds, downed at the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:5042% → 42%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
58.4%
Travis Dye run for 7 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 0:13
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+12
55.5%
Travis Dye run for 12 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
54.7%
Travis Dye run for 19 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
52.8%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 14:01
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
53.1%
Travis Dye run for 3 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 1
OPP 18
0
55.2%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for no gain to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-1
57.8%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4965% → 63%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
64.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for 3 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-1
65.2%
Damien Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
63.8%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the Cal 21Similar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 8
OWN 21
-2
62.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 44 yds , Josh Delgado returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 33 Josh Delgado fumbled, recovered by Oregn Josh DelgadoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4838% → 42%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
61.8%
Tyler Shough run for 4 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
60.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Hunter Kampmoyer for 8 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
59.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 9 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 9:22
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+4
56.7%
Tyler Shough run for 4 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
57.8%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Kris HutsonSimilar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-4
58.2%
Tyler Shough run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 46 Tyler Shough fumbled, forced by Kuony Deng, recovered by Cal Cameron GoodeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:0972% → 71%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
71.9%
Marcel Dancy run for 1 yd to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
71.6%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-6
69.3%
Chase Garbers sacked by Andrew Faoliu for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 7:26
4TH & 15
OWN 41
0
70.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:1934% → 29%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
66.2%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 12Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
66.5%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 9
OWN 12
-5
68.2%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Kris Hutson) to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 14
OWN 7
-4
69.4%
Tyler Shough sacked by Kuony Deng and Cameron Goode for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 3Similar
Q4 5:56
4TH & 18
OWN 3
+14
70.8%
Tom Snee punt for 53 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 14 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 17 yds · 3:3981% → 88%
Q4 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
81.4%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 6
OPP 38
0
83.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+3
84.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 3 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 4:17
4TH & 3
OPP 35
+5
82.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 5 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
86.5%
Bradrick Shaw run for 6 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
87.3%
Bradrick Shaw run for 1 yd to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 3
OPP 23
-2
87.9%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 2:01
4TH & 5
OPP 25
0
88.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · 39 yds · 1:0222% → 27%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
78.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Mycah Pittman for 12 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
76.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
50
+5
71.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 5 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+4
71.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+3
72.6%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
73.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 2 yds Johnny Johnson III fumbled, forced by Kuony Deng, recovered by Cal Muelu IosefaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:1894% → 95%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
93.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 14
OWN 32
-4
94.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 18
OWN 28
-5
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:49
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 32
+20.4
TD · Q3 5:14
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 28 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)
+20
TD · Q2 0:23
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 1 yd for a TD (Henry Katleman KICK)
-13.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com