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ORE

Oregon 38 at Oregon State 41

ORST
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2020 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:30 · Caleb Lightbourn punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 39
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior−30.0Home team on offense−2.2Garbage-time factor−1.0Score differential−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:57: Zeriah Beason 8 Yd pass from Tristan Gebbia (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — ORST win probability +13.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q4 13:26: Tristan Gebbia 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick) — ORST win probability +19.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  3. TD · Q4 12:23: Jermar Jefferson 2 Yd Run (Tristan Gebbia Run for Two-Point Conversion) — ORST win probability +30.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:27: Cyrus Habibi-Likio 1 Yd Run (Henry Katleman Kick) — ORE win probability +30.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:33: Chance Nolan 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick) — ORST win probability +65.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 10ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:30ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:27ORE 4th & 20 at ORST 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:38ORST 4th & 4 at ORE 16, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    20.8%−3.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:55ORST 4th & 10 at ORE 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:46ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.5%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:46ORE 4th & 7 at ORST 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    74.5%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:36ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 28, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:05ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 18, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:10ORST 4th & 1 at ORE 10, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−2.0
    88% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−8.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:35ORST 4th & 3 at ORE 6, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    16.2%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.4%−7.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:00ORST 4th & 7 at ORE 31, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−6.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:18ORST 4th & 7 at ORE 15, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.9 ptsWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%−6.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    31.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−17.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:55ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.2%−3.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:33ORST 4th & 1 at ORE 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    17.6%−35.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−42.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:52ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:59ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:21ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:57ORE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:57ORST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:43ORE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:26ORST Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:23ORST Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    56.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:27ORE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:33ORST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.7%−2.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:5984% → 83%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
16.1%
CJ Verdell run for 16 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
16.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 8 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
16.4%
CJ Verdell run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
16.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 9 yds to the OREGONST 41 OREGON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Johnny Johnson III) to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+5
16.8%
CJ Verdell run for 5 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 11
OWN 49
+14
17.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to CJ Verdell for 14 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
17.2%
Tyler Shough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
16.7%
Jaylon Redd 37 Yd Run (Henry Katleman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 91 yds · 0:3617% → 18%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
16.9%
Trevon Bradford run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+82
18.1%
Jermar Jefferson 82 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
13 plays · 93 yds · 5:2482% → 82%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+12
18.2%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 12 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
18.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 9 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+8
18.5%
Travis Dye run for 8 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+20
18.5%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Devon Williams for 20 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
18.5%
Tyler Shough run for no gain to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+28
18.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 28 yds to the OrgSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
19.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Kris Hutson for 8 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+4
19.2%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
19.5%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
19.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jaylon Redd for no gain to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Isaac Hodgins) to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q1 5:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.0%
Tyler Shough 1 Yd Run (Henry Katleman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:3619% → 19%
Q1 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
18.9%
Gebbia, Tristan rush for 2 yards to the OREGONST28, PENALTY OREGONST holding 10 yards to the OREGONST16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+5
18.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
19.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Jermar JeffersonSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 15
OWN 21
+5
18.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 5 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
18.8%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:5682% → 81%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.4%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Devon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
18.4%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Tevin JeannisSimilar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-10
18.6%
Tyler Shough sacked by Andrzej Hughes-Murray for a loss of 10 yards to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 2:27
4TH & 20
OPP 49
0
19.5%
Tom Snee punt for 48 yds, downed at the OrgSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6FG
10 plays · 83 yds · 3:3719% → 24%
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+35
19.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for 35 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
19.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
19.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+30
19.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 30 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
21.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+7
21.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
21.9%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 9 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 1
OPP 13
-3
22.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 4
OPP 16
0
21.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+34
23.8%
Everett Hayes 34 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1377% → 82%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
23.1%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
23.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Hunter Kampmoyer for 15 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
22.3%
CJ Verdell run for 8 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
22.4%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-15
22.4%
Shough, Tyler pass incomplete to Williams, Devon, PENALTY OREGON personal foul 15 yards to the OREGON36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 25
OWN 36
+4
23.8%
CJ Verdell run for 4 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 21
OWN 40
+60
18.2%
Devon Williams 60 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Henry Katleman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:5819% → 20%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Kolby TaylorSimilar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
18.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 9 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
19.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+7
19.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 7 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+3
19.0%
Jack Colletto run for 3 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
19.4%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 19 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
20.4%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Zeriah BeasonSimilar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
20.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
19.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Zeriah BeasonSimilar
Q2 5:55
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+48
20.0%
Everett Hayes 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3881% → 81%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
18.7%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+6
18.6%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
18.4%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
18.5%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
18.8%
Tyler Shough pass intercepted Jaydon Grant return for no gain to the OrgSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5921% → 21%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
20.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+5
20.7%
Trevon Bradford run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+2
21.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
21.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11FG
8 plays · 29 yds · 1:4482% → 83%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
18.3%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+28
17.7%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Devon Williams for 13 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
17.4%
Travis Dye pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
17.5%
Travis Dye run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+2
17.2%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 2
OPP 10
-5
18.3%
OREGON Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 0:46
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
16.7%
Henry Katleman 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:3618% → 17%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
18.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
18.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Champ Flemings for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-11
18.6%
Tristan Gebbia sacked by Kayvon Thibodeaux for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+11
17.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0218% → 17%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
17.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
17.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
17.7%
Jack Colletto pass incomplete to Teagan QuitorianoSimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 1
OWN 28
0
17.3%
Luke Loecher punt for 56 yds, downed at the Oregn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0482% → 82%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
17.9%
CJ Verdell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 11
OWN 15
0
18.0%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to CJ VerdellSimilar
Q3 12:33
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+3
18.4%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Cyrus Habibi-Likio for 3 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+23
18.5%
Tom Snee punt for 43 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 23 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:3320% → 31%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+19
19.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 19 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
20.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
19.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the Oregn 13Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+3
18.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
17.7%
Tristan Gebbia run for 2 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
31.1%
Zeriah Beason 8 Yd pass from Tristan Gebbia (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:0275% → 87%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
24.9%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
24.5%
Tyler Shough run for 6 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
24.3%
Travis Dye run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
22.9%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Johnny Johnson III for 19 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
22.1%
Travis Dye run for 26 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
13.3%
Hunter Kampmoyer 4 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Henry Katleman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17TD
17 plays · 92 yds · 7:3416% → 35%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
15.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+9
15.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 9 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
15.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+14
16.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
16.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 17 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
17.3%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 6 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+1
18.6%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the Oregn 33Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+9
16.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Oregn 24 Jermar Jefferson fumbled, forced by Deommodore Lenoir, recovered by OrgSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
18.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Zeriah BeasonSimilar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
17.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 9 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+2
16.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
17.8%
B.J. Baylor run for 1 yd to the Oregn 12Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
17.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the Oregn 12Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+6
15.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 6 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+5
15.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.0%
Tristan Gebbia 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:1274% → 74%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
25.6%
Travis Dye run for 4 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 6
OWN 12
0
25.7%
Tyler Shough pass intercepted Nahshon Wright return for no gain to the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19TD
2 plays · 33 yds · 0:0735% → 66%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+31
35.4%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 31 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
66.1%
Jermar Jefferson 2 Yd Run (Tristan Gebbia Run for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3843% → 79%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.3%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Jaylon Redd for 7 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
54.2%
Travis Dye run for 1 yd to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
57.2%
Travis Dye run for 5 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
56.8%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+29
53.4%
Travis Dye run for 14 yds to the OREGONST 45 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
51.3%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
51.0%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+23
54.0%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Hunter Kampmoyer for 23 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
51.5%
Tyler Shough run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 8:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.7%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio 1 Yd Run (Henry Katleman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 55 yds · 5:4533% → 31%
Q4 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
32.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 13 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
36.2%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 11 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
37.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 8 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+1
37.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
37.1%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 3 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
40.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
37.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
34.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:00
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+13
31.5%
Tristan Gebbia run for 13 yds to the Oregn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
37.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Luke MusgraveSimilar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
38.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+5
32.4%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 5 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 7
OPP 15
0
30.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:1984% → 87%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
15.7%
Travis Dye run for 2 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
14.8%
Tyler Shough run for no gain to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
16.2%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Johnny Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+2
13.4%
Tom Snee punt for 38 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 23TD
14 plays · 53 yds · 1:1827% → 94%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
26.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q4 1:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
26.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 12 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
29.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 11 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
33.4%
Gebbia, Tristan pass incomplete to Bradford, Trevon, PENALTY OREGONST ineligible downfield on pass (Musgrave, Luke) 5 yards to the OREGON35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+15
29.2%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 15 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
34.7%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Jermar Jefferson for 3 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+11
34.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 11 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
34.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Oregn 2Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
33.8%
Tristan Gebbia run for 1 yd to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
31.4%
Tristan Gebbia run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
28.5%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.0%
Chance Nolan 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24Uncategorized
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:1518% → 19%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
82.1%
Tyler Shough pass complete to Devon Williams for 8 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 2
OWN 31
0
79.2%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Jaylon ReddSimilar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
81.0%
Tyler Shough pass incomplete to Devon WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:33
Chance Nolan 1 Yd Run (Everett Hayes Kick)
+65.5
TD · Q4 8:27
Cyrus Habibi-Likio 1 Yd Run (Henry Katleman Kick)
-30.8
TD · Q4 12:23
Jermar Jefferson 2 Yd Run (Tristan Gebbia Run for Two-Point Conversion)
+30.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com