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STAN

Stanford 24 at California 23

CAL
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2020 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:15 · Ryan Sanborn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 51Home team on offense+2.7Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Pregame prior−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:09: Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 11 yds for a TD — STAN win probability +11.3 pts (now 54%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:57: Austin Jones run for 2 yds for a TD — STAN win probability +13.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:13: Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds for a TD — CAL win probability +15.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:51: Austin Jones run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK) — STAN win probability +20.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:58: Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto PAT BLOCKED) — CAL win probability +22.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 8STAN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 10:32STAN 4th & 6 at CAL 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:19CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:55STAN 4th & 3 at CAL 9, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.8%−0.3
    89% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−3.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:15CAL 4th & 3 at STAN 7, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%−0.6
    91% to make
    Punt
    49.7%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:15STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:59CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:33STAN 4th & 9 at STAN 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:48CAL 4th & 2 at CAL 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:39STAN 4th & 18 at STAN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−3.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:54STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:13CAL 4th & 1 at STAN 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    33.4%−4.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−16.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:13STAN 4th & 4 at STAN 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:23CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 29, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.3 ptsPunted · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:44CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−4.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00STAN 4th & 11 at CAL 34, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    72.2%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.1%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:38CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 23, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:44STAN 4th & 11 at CAL 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−0.6
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:32CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:09STAN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:57STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:13CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:51STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:58CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−5.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:2848% → 51%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
47.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 23 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
47.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 8 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-1
47.7%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+6
47.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Gavin Reinwald for 6 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+16
47.7%
Damien Moore run for 16 yds to the Stanf 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
47.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Damien Moore for 10 yds to the Stanf 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
47.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 6 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+7
51.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 7 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 2 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
50.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 3 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
50.3%
Isaiah Sanders run for 5 yds to the Stanf 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
50.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete, broken up by Brett JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
50.2%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+11
50.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 11 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+16
49.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 16 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
49.8%
Davis Mills sacked by JH Tevis for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+6
49.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 6 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
49.8%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
50.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 32 yds, downed at the Cal 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-4
52.8%
Chase Garbers sacked by Thomas Booker for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 3Similar
Q1 6:19
2ND & 14
OWN 3
0
52.7%
Marcel Dancy run for no gain to the Cal 3Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 14
OWN 3
+10
52.4%
Chase Garbers run for 10 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q1 6:19
4TH & 4
OWN 13
+6
52.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 43 , Michael Wilson returns for 6 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 4:2947% → 48%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
53.2%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+1
52.8%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Stanf 48Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+12
52.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 12 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+24
52.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 24 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
52.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to E.J. Smith for 5 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+2
52.0%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Cal 9Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
52.6%
Austin Jones run for no gain to the Cal 9Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+27
51.7%
Jet Toner 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 4:4053% → 59%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.6%
Damien Moore run for no gain to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+22
51.7%
Chase Garbers run for 22 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
53.7%
Damien Moore run for 9 yds to the CALIFORNIA 45 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, personal foul (Thunder Keck) to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
54.4%
Chase Garbers run for 16 yds to the Stanf 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
54.4%
Chase Garbers sacked by Thomas Schaffer for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 18Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+1
55.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 1 yd to the Stanf 17Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+10
54.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 10 yds to the Stanf 7Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+24
58.8%
Dario Longhetto 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Osiris St. Brown for 7 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
56.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
56.9%
Nathaniel Peat run for 4 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
56.1%
Nathaniel Peat run for no gain to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
56.9%
Davis Mills run for no gain to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
58.1%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0061% → 59%
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-8
61.0%
Chase Garbers sacked by Malik Antoine for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 6:59
2ND & 18
OWN 11
0
60.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q2 6:59
3RD & 18
OWN 11
+11
59.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 11 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 6:59
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
59.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Connor Wedington at the Stanf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
59.8%
Davis Mills run for 7 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
58.8%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 3
OWN 45
-6
59.0%
Davis Mills sacked by Brett Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 39Similar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
62.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 33 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for no gain to the Cal 16 Nikko Remigio fumbled, recovered by Stanf Houston HeimuliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:5743% → 54%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
57.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
57.1%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+11
45.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 11 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:2153% → 54%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.7%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
52.9%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+6
53.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 6 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
53.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 1:0249% → 48%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
50.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 6 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+4
49.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 4 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
49.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 13
OWN 36
-8
50.9%
Davis Mills sacked by JH Tevis for a loss of 8 yards to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 1:39
3RD & 21
OWN 28
+3
51.8%
Nathaniel Peat run for 3 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 18
OWN 31
0
52.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12END OF HALF
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:4653% → 58%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
53.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 17 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
55.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 11 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
56.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 12 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
57.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
57.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+15
55.6%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Crawford, Kekoa, PENALTY STAN pass interference (Turner-Muhammad) 15 yards to the STAN15, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
57.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+32
57.6%
Dario Longhetto 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Curtis RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
49.7%
Austin Jones run for 4 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+3
49.0%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
49.7%
Davis Mills pass incomplete, broken up by Muelu IosefaSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
51.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
53.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
54.2%
Chase Garbers run for 4 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+10
54.0%
Marcel Dancy run for 10 yds to the Cal 41 Marcel Dancy fumbled, forced by Salim Turner-Muhammad, recovered by Stanf Thomas BookerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 1:0053% → 68%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+33
46.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 33 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
45.5%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the Cal 2Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
31.7%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:4437% → 56%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
36.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 9 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+54
38.8%
Damien Moore run for 54 yds to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
42.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Stanf 11Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+5
42.0%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+3
40.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 3 yds to the Stanf 3Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 1
OPP 3
+3
55.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Nikko Remigio for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
50.8%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
49.3%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to E.J. SmithSimilar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
50.8%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi Fehoko, broken up by Josh DraydenSimilar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
52.5%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
54.1%
Damien Moore run for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
54.6%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 8:23
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
53.7%
Damien Moore run for no gain to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 8:23
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
52.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:2849% → 74%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
50.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 8 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+10
48.6%
Mills,D pass intercepted by Scott, Daniel at the CAL18, Scott, Daniel return to the CAL18, PENALTY CAL holding (Hicks, Elijah) 10 yards to the STAN47, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+17
47.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 17 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
46.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 6 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+11
45.2%
Nathaniel Peat run for 11 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
45.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to John Humphreys for 6 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
45.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Tucker Fisk for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
46.8%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
26.0%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
33.1%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
33.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-8
31.5%
Chase Garbers sacked by Thomas Schaffer for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 15
OWN 17
0
30.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 0:1774% → 72%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
26.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 6 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-2
26.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to E.J. Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+8
26.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 8 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
25.1%
Austin Jones run for 8 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+7
24.9%
Austin Jones run for 7 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
24.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 7 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+2
24.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 2 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-10
25.1%
Peat,N rush for 19 yards to the CAL5 (Scott, Daniel), PENALTY STAN holding (Hinton,M) 10 yards to the CAL34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 34
0
25.5%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
28.2%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 30 yds, downed at the Cal 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0028% → 25%
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
27.5%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+13
27.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 13 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
28.0%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+6
27.7%
Chase Garbers run for 6 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 10:38
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
26.7%
Chase Garbers run for no gain to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 10:38
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
25.2%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0082% → 79%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
18.4%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+6
18.4%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+9
18.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 9 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
17.6%
Austin Jones run for 6 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+1
17.0%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-8
17.7%
Davis Mills sacked by Cameron Goode for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
21.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Nikko Remigio at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 3:3021% → 49%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
21.2%
Chase Garbers run for 3 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+27
20.7%
Damien Moore run for 27 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
24.3%
Chase Garbers run for 9 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+7
26.6%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 7 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
27.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 14 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
29.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 5 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
29.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+6
27.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Trevon Clark for 6 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
29.6%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
29.2%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+15
26.8%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 15 yds to the Stanf 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
29.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa Crawford, broken up by Salim Turner-MuhammadSimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
29.6%
Nikko Remigio run for 1 yd to the Stanf 3Similar
Q4 0:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.0%
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-53.6
TD · Q4 0:58
Christopher Brown Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Dario Longhetto PAT BLOCKED)
+22.1
TD · Q3 1:51
Austin Jones run for 8 yds for a TD, (Jet Toner KICK)
-20.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com