Try the model
CAL

California 27 at Oregon State 31

ORST
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Reser Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:56 · Caleb Lightbourn punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Home team on offense+2.8Pregame prior−5.4Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:31: Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 21 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +10.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Dario Longhetto 52 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +6.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:35: Tyjon Lindsey pass complete to Tristan Gebbia for 8 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +21.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:04: Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 2 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK) — CAL win probability +30.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:30: Tristan Gebbia run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK) — ORST win probability +41.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 8:25ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:25CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:49CAL 4th & 2 at ORST 9, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.5%−0.5
    89% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−4.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 44, up 4
    Close callPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:05CAL 4th & 2 at ORST 2, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.2%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:56ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:21CAL 4th & 1 at ORST 42, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.3%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.3%
    30% to make
    Punt
    54.3%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00CAL 4th & 7 at ORST 35, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.3%−0.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−2.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:05ORST 4th & 1 at CAL 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−2.8
    62% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−9.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:20ORST 4th & 3 at CAL 17, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.8%−0.9
    80% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−12.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:05CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 38, up 3
    Close callPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:35CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−0.8
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:01ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−4.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:54CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 40, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−2.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:42ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:30CAL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:47ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:31CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:35ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:04CAL Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.9%−1.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:30ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
41.7%
Jermar Jefferson run for 75 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1258% → 58%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
41.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
41.7%
Marcel Dancy run for 6 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 14:42
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+12
41.7%
Damien Moore run for 12 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
41.6%
Damien Moore run for 3 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+44
41.6%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 44 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
41.6%
Bradrick Shaw run for no gain to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
41.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
42.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:5943% → 44%
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
43.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
42.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-1
43.4%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+2
43.5%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 56 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for 2 yds to the Cal 35 CALIFORNIA Penalty, illegal block (6 Yards) to the Cal 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
43.7%
Damien Moore run for 4 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+2
43.7%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+3
43.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 3 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 1
OWN 16
-5
44.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 6
OWN 11
0
44.1%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
49.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 35 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 6FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:5852% → 52%
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Drew Schlegel for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
47.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
47.8%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
48.1%
Chase Garbers run for 9 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
47.5%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
47.0%
Marcel Dancy run for 4 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 5:47
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
47.0%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
47.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 7
50
+33
46.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 33 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
46.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel Dancy, broken up by Riley SharpSimilar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
46.4%
Marcel Dancy run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 9
0
50.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+26
48.4%
Dario Longhetto 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
48.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 12 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
49.1%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
49.5%
B.J. Baylor run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
49.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Champ Flemings, broken up by Josh DraydenSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
48.7%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 8INT
9 plays · 78 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
50.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
50.2%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 16Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+19
50.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 19 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+52
49.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 52 yds to the OrgSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
47.4%
Nikko Remigio run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 10 OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Nahshon Wright) to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 2
OPP 5
+2
47.4%
Bradrick Shaw run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
47.4%
Bradrick Shaw run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q2 13:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
48.2%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
49.1%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted, touchback. Nahshon Wright return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
52.7%
Tyjon Lindsey run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
53.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
52.2%
Jack Colletto run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
53.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 5
OWN 36
0
54.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for no gain to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
52.8%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Zeriah BeasonSimilar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
52.1%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 10TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 2:0546% → 60%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
53.6%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+23
52.3%
Marcel Dancy run for 23 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
51.7%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Dunn, Isaiah) 15 yards to the OSU21, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
50.6%
Marcel Dancy run for no gain to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+21
40.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 21 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11INT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0945% → 48%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
44.8%
Jermar Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
44.9%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Luke Musgrave, broken up by Craig WoodsonSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+15
44.1%
Gebbia, Tristan pass complete to Jefferson, J. for loss of 2 yards to the OSU23, out-of-bounds (Drayden, Josh), PENALTY CAL face mask (Drayden, Josh) 15 yards to the OSU40, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
47.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Champ Flemings for 15 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-14
48.4%
Tristan Gebbia pass intercepted Josh Drayden return for 4 yds to the Cal 41 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding (Evan Tattersall) to the Cal 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 12FG
15 plays · 30 yds · 1:2457% → 66%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.7%
Chase Garbers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-10
43.1%
Garbers, Chase rush for 1 yard to the CAL36, out-of-bounds (Roberts, Avery), PENALTY CAL holding (Driscoll, Brian) 10 yards to the CAL25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+6
44.1%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+18
44.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 18 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
40.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
39.6%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+7
40.4%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 7 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q2 0:21
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+4
40.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 4 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
38.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
38.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
38.7%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake TongesSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
34.3%
Dario Longhetto 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
35.9%
Marcel Dancy run for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
34.8%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
36.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
34.9%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
35.4%
Damien Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
37.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Marcel DancySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+4
38.0%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 40 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:4538% → 45%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
38.1%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Luke Musgrave for 12 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
40.2%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
39.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+8
39.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Zeriah Beason for 8 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
41.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 11 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
41.6%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
43.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
41.3%
Jermar Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+3
39.8%
Tristan Gebbia run for 3 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
43.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 3 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
43.0%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+2
41.3%
B.J. Baylor run for 2 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q3 6:20
4TH & 3
OPP 17
+35
45.2%
Everett Hayes 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
41.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Monroe Young for 8 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 2
OWN 16
+1
41.2%
Damien Moore run for 1 yd to the Cal 17Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+2
42.5%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
41.1%
Damien Moore run for 7 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
40.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
40.5%
Damien Moore run for 2 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-6
40.3%
Chase Garbers sacked by Avery Roberts and Isaac Hodgins for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 14
OWN 27
+11
42.9%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 11 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 6:05
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+36
41.9%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 37 yds , Trevon Bradford returns for 36 yds to the Cal 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
6 plays · 39 yds · 2:5748% → 72%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
47.9%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
48.0%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+4
47.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Kolby Taylor for 4 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
50.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Teagan Quitoriano for 22 yds to the Cal 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
50.5%
B.J. Baylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 8Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
72.1%
Tyjon Lindsey pass complete to Tristan Gebbia for 8 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.8%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
63.2%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
62.9%
Marcel Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
65.5%
Jamieson Sheahan punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Trevon Bradford at the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18INT
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0068% → 72%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
68.3%
Tristan Gebbia pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 17 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
71.2%
Jermar Jefferson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 7
50
-30
71.6%
Tristan Gebbia pass intercepted Elijah Hicks return for 30 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:2142% → 73%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
57.9%
Marcel Dancy run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+15
57.2%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 15 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
57.2%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Tonges, Jake, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Speights, Omar) 7 yards to the OSU5, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
57.2%
Damien Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
57.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Nikko RemigioSimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
59.2%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Polk, Makai, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Dunn, Isaiah) 5 yards to the OSU2, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
57.3%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Gavin ReinwaldSimilar
Q4 8:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
26.7%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 2 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0039% → 35%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.0%
Tristan Gebbia pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
38.7%
Tristan Gebbia sacked by Cameron Goode and Brett Johnson for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
36.5%
Tristan Gebbia pass incomplete to Champ FlemingsSimilar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
35.0%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 42 yds , Nikko Remigio returns for no gain to the Cal 38 Nikko Remigio fumbled, recovered by Cal Cameron GoodeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0072% → 67%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
28.3%
Marcel Dancy run for no gain to the Cal 38Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
28.6%
Marcel Dancy run for 2 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
29.4%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Jake Tonges, broken up by Jaydon GrantSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
32.7%
Jamieson Sheahan punt blocked by Jesiah Irish blocked by Jesiah IrishSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:5645% → 86%
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
44.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+6
44.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Cal 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.4%
Tristan Gebbia run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23INT
13 plays · 69 yds · 0:0028% → 37%
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
72.5%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 11 yds to the Cal 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
71.0%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Marcel Dancy for 12 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
68.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Kekoa Crawford for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 4
50
+3
65.9%
Marcel Dancy run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+10
65.8%
Marcel Dancy run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
66.0%
Chase Garbers run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+7
63.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Makai Polk for 7 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
63.3%
Chase Garbers sacked by Omar Speights for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
64.2%
Chase Garbers pass incomplete to Makai PolkSimilar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+7
68.3%
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 7 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+10
69.2%
Garbers, Chase pass incomplete to Young, Monroe, PENALTY OSU holding (Austin, Alex) 10 yards to the OSU10, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
63.3%
Chase Garbers pass intercepted John McCartan return for 1 yd to the OrgSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24END OF GAME
8 plays · 72 yds · 0:3092% → 94%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+16
91.5%
Jermar Jefferson run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+65
93.1%
Jermar Jefferson run for 65 yds to the Cal 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
94.8%
Tristan Gebbia run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 15Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
-2
94.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-2
94.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:30
Tristan Gebbia run for 1 yd for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
+41.9
TD · Q4 8:04
Chase Garbers pass complete to Jake Tonges for 2 yds for a TD (Dario Longhetto KICK)
-30.5
TD · Q4 13:35
Tyjon Lindsey pass complete to Tristan Gebbia for 8 yds for a TD (Everett Hayes KICK)
+21.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com