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COLO

Colorado 35 at Stanford 32

STAN
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 13:32 · Davis Mills pass incomplete to Connor Wedington
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Home team on offense−30.0Pregame prior+6.4Score differential−17.9Garbage-time factor−12.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:52: Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the Stanf 10 — COLO win probability +11.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:18: Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Stanf 34 — COLO win probability +19.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:42: Davis Mills pass incomplete to Scooter Harrington — STAN win probability +14.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:45: Austin Jones run for 2 yds for a TD (Davis Mills pass to Connor Wedington for Two-Point Conversion) — STAN win probability +13.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:34: Davis Mills pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 1 yd for a TD (Davis Mills pass to Tucker Fisk for Two-Point Conversion) — STAN win probability +37.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 11:45STAN 4th & 6 at COLO 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.1%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:40COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:00STAN 4th & 6 at STAN 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:45STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 13, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:29COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 46, down 3
    Close callPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:00STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:13STAN 4th & 5 at COLO 15, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:38STAN 4th & 6 at COLO 10, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−7.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:32STAN 4th & 2 at midfield, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:53COLO 4th & 17 at COLO 43, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:21STAN 4th & 7 at STAN 46, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:49COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 46, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.0%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:10COLO 4th & 2 at STAN 38, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.4 ptsPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−2.8
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    89.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.0%−6.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:20COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:36COLO Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 8:45STAN Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    10.6%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    10.8%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:34STAN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    17.7%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:1077% → 77%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
77.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
50
+8
77.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 8 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+8
76.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 8 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-1
76.9%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+5
76.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q1 11:51
3RD & 6
OPP 30
0
76.7%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Elijah HigginsSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+48
76.7%
Jet Toner 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5423% → 23%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
76.6%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Maurice BellSimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
76.6%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 4 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
76.5%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Daniel AriasSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
76.6%
Josh Watts punt for 47 yds, downed at the Stanf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3076% → 76%
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
76.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 6 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
76.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 3 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
76.1%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 1
OWN 35
-5
75.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 30Similar
Q1 9:00
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+2
75.6%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 51 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 2 yds to the Colo 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4INT
4 plays · 31 yds · 1:0824% → 25%
Q1 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
76.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
75.7%
Sam Noyer run for 3 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+8
75.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 8 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
75.3%
Sam Noyer pass intercepted Malik Antoine return for no gain to the Stanf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5576% → 75%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
75.6%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
75.6%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
75.2%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
75.0%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 47 yds, downed at the Colo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5625% → 25%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
75.0%
Ashaad Clayton run for 3 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
74.9%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Maurice BellSimilar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
75.3%
Josh Watts punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Michael Wilson at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2275% → 74%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
75.2%
Austin Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 18Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
74.9%
Nathaniel Peat run for 5 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q1 4:12
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
74.6%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+5
74.3%
Ryan Sanborn punt for 39 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 5 yds to the Colo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
2 plays · 57 yds · 0:2826% → 29%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
74.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+55
71.4%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 55 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:2772% → 72%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
72.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 7 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+16
72.5%
COLORADO Penalty, Face Mask (16 yards) (Jamar Montgomery) to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
72.8%
Davis Mills run for 12 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
73.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 6 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+9
72.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 9 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
72.6%
Justus Woods run for 4 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
72.6%
Austin Jones run for 1 yd to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
71.7%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
72.4%
Jet Toner 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:3129% → 41%
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
70.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 16 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
69.6%
Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 13:02
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-2
69.2%
Sam Noyer run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 42Similar
Q2 12:48
3RD & 9
OWN 42
+5
69.8%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive Offside (Andres Fox) to the Colo 47Similar
Q2 12:40
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+29
69.2%
Sam Noyer pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 29 yds to the Stanf 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
67.7%
Sam Noyer run for no gain to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+9
67.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 9 yds to the Stanf 15Similar
Q2 10:53
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
67.6%
Sam Noyer run for 3 yds to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
66.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 4
OPP 6
-1
66.6%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 7Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+7
59.1%
Sam Noyer run for 7 yds for a TD (Evan Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 4:4061% → 63%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
60.6%
Davis Mills run for 15 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
61.4%
Davis Mills sacked by Carson Wells for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 39Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+3
58.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 3 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+34
57.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 34 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
61.1%
Mills, Davis pass incomplete to Jones, Austin, PENALTY COLORADO holding (Landman, Nate) 10 yards to the COLORADO14, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
60.7%
Nathaniel Peat run for 5 yds to the Colo 9Similar
Q2 6:07
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
60.4%
Nathaniel Peat run for 2 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
58.8%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds to the Colo 5Similar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 1
OPP 5
-5
57.1%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Colo 10Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 6
OPP 10
+28
62.5%
Jet Toner 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1339% → 39%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.7%
Dimitri Stanley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
60.4%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 1 yd to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Jarek BroussardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:5060% → 62%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
60.2%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+11
59.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 11 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
61.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 8 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
62.3%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Austin JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14END OF HALF
9 plays · 41 yds · 1:3742% → 48%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
58.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 21Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
58.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Daniel Arias for 10 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
56.6%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Matt Lynch for 6 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+6
54.7%
Sam Noyer run for 6 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
53.1%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to La'Vontae ShenaultSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
53.4%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Brenden Rice for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 6
50
+11
53.0%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 11 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
51.7%
Sam Noyer pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
52.1%
Sam Noyer pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0344% → 62%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.5%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
56.3%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 18 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
53.2%
Jaren Mangham run for 5 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+9
52.9%
Sam Noyer run for 9 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
52.0%
Noyer, Sam pass incomplete to Shenault, La'Vontae, PENALTY STANFORD offside (Fox, Jordan) 5 yards to the STANFORD38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 5
OPP 38
+2
51.6%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+6
50.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
49.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 14 yds to the Stanf 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
38.5%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:0742% → 40%
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
41.5%
Austin Jones run for 3 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
41.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 3 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q3 10:11
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
39.9%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17TD
2 plays · 61 yds · 0:3964% → 83%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
36.2%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Dimitri Stanley for 22 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
17.0%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 18TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 3:5425% → 37%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-6
24.5%
Davis Mills pass complete to Casey Filkins for a loss of 6 yards to the Stanf 12Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+2
24.2%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 2 yds to the Stanf 14Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 14
OWN 14
+26
21.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 26 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
23.6%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (Barrett Miller) to the Stanf 35Similar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+15
21.9%
Mills, Davis pass incomplete to Wedington, Connor, PENALTY COLORADO pass interference (Gonzalez, Christian) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
50
+29
23.8%
Davis Mills pass complete to Elijah Higgins for 29 yds to the Colo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
24.7%
Austin Jones run for 5 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
24.0%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Austin JonesSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+14
23.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 14 yds to the Colo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
37.3%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Scooter HarringtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:1770% → 81%
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
29.7%
Sam Noyer pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 9 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
28.7%
Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
26.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+22
26.0%
Sam Noyer pass complete to La'Vontae Shenault for 22 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
23.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 18 yds to the Stanf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
22.2%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Stanf 23Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
20.2%
Sam Noyer pass incomplete to Matt LynchSimilar
Q3 0:47
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+17
20.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 17 yds to the Stanf 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
18.7%
Jaren Mangham run for 4 yds to the Stanf 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:1812% → 9%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
11.7%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+15
11.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 15 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
10.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 2
50
0
10.7%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Nathaniel PeatSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 2
50
0
9.1%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:2595% → 95%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
50
-2
5.2%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-1
5.1%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 47Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+1
4.8%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 12:01
4TH & 12
OWN 48
-5
5.0%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 43Similar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
5.0%
Josh Watts punt for 30 yds, downed at the Stanf 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 22TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 3:057% → 21%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
7.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 7 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+9
7.1%
Davis Mills run for 9 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
7.1%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 3 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
6.8%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
6.7%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 7
OWN 46
+10
6.4%
Davis Mills pass complete to Simi Fehoko for 10 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
6.9%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Austin JonesSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
6.6%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 9 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+19
7.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Austin Jones for 19 yds to the Colo 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
7.1%
Davis Mills pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+14
7.0%
Mills, Davis pass incomplete to Higgins, Elijah, PENALTY COLORADO pass interference (Rakestraw, Derrion) 14 yards to the COLORADO2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q4 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
20.6%
Austin Jones run for 2 yds for a TD (Davis Mills pass to Connor Wedington for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 2:5186% → 91%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.0%
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
13.0%
Jarek Broussard run for 4 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
12.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 3 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
10.7%
Jarek Broussard run for 8 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+1
9.1%
Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 46
0
9.6%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
9.4%
Josh Watts punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 24TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 3:048% → 42%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
8.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 10 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
8.3%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 11 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
8.2%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Michael WilsonSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
7.3%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+28
6.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Connor Wedington for 28 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
10.2%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+12
9.9%
Davis Mills pass complete to Brycen Tremayne for 12 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
10.6%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Austin JonesSimilar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+16
8.7%
Davis Mills pass complete to Michael Wilson for 16 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
6.0%
Davis Mills run for 1 yd to the Colo 2Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
5.8%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Simi FehokoSimilar
Q4 2:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
5.0%
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Connor WedingtonSimilar
Q4 2:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
4.3%
Mills, Davis pass incomplete to Tremayne, Brycen, PENALTY COLORADO pass interference (Blackmon, Mekhi) 1 yards to the COLORADO1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.0%
Davis Mills pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 1 yd for a TD (Davis Mills pass to Tucker Fisk for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 2:1685% → 94%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
15.5%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
9.4%
Jarek Broussard run for 6 yds to the Stanf 40Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+2
5.9%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 0:10
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
6.4%
Josh Watts punt for 30 yds, downed at the Stanf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:34
Davis Mills pass complete to Scooter Harrington for 1 yd for a TD (Davis Mills pass to Tucker Fisk for Two-Point Conversion)
+37.7
TD · Q3 9:18
Jarek Broussard run for 5 yds to the Stanf 34
-19.1
TD · Q3 4:42
Davis Mills pass incomplete to Scooter Harrington
+14
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com