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USC

USC 34 at Arizona 30

ARIZ
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:02 · Grant Gunnell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Pregame prior−7.0Home team on offense+2.8Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:45: Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 75 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +14.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. FG · Q4 7:49: Lucas Havrisik 51 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +11.3 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:30: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 6 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +39.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:35: Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK) — ARIZ win probability +53.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:25: Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +59.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USC made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 2:04USC 4th & 4 at ARIZ 13, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%−0.1
    85% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−1.7
    average punt
  2. Q2 12:16ARIZ 4th & 8 at USC 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−2.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:22USC 4th & 9 at USC 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 5:07ARIZ 4th & 2 at USC 6, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.3%−1.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.7%−6.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:12ARIZ 4th & 10 at USC 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−5.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:18USC 4th & 12 at USC 39, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:51ARIZ 4th & 16 at ARIZ 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−2.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:57USC 4th & 11 at ARIZ 11, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    61.0%−8.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:02USC 4th & 1 at ARIZ 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.2%−3.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−14.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:06USC 4th & 11 at ARIZ 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    49.0%−11.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:34ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−4.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:23USC 4th & 1 at ARIZ 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.9%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    54.3%−5.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−20.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:28ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:24USC 4th & 11 at ARIZ 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%−4.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:02ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.4%−6.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:49ARIZ 4th & 2 at USC 33, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.6%−5.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−8.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 12:36USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:50ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:33USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:45ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:30USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−1.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:35ARIZ Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−3.7
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:25USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4815% → 16%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.3%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Tayvian CunninghamSimilar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
15.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-27
15.6%
Grant Gunnell pass intercepted Talanoa Hufanga return for 27 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2484% → 84%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
15.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 3
OPP 10
0
15.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+7
15.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
16.0%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the Ariz 3Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
16.0%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.8%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3816% → 19%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
15.9%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
16.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
16.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 8 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
16.4%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 3 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
16.5%
Tayvian Cunningham run for no gain to the Ariz 44Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+11
16.6%
Grant Gunnell run for 11 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
17.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Michael Wiley for 8 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+3
17.2%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
17.4%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
18.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Jamarye Joiner for 34 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4FG
20 plays · 62 yds · 6:4182% → 79%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.2%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
18.3%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
18.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 6 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
18.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
18.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Jude WolfeSimilar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
19.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-15
18.7%
USC Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Tyler Vaughns) to the USC 30Similar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 25
OWN 30
-3
19.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Kenan Christon for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 27Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 28
OWN 27
0
19.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 28
OWN 27
+15
19.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Christian Young) to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
19.3%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+23
19.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to John Jackson III for 23 yds to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
19.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 9 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+2
19.4%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
19.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
19.9%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 1
OPP 10
-3
20.7%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 13Similar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+30
20.8%
Parker Lewis 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5MISSED FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 4:3221% → 24%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
21.3%
Grant Gunnell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-6
21.7%
Jamarye Joiner run for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+10
21.2%
USC Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 0:10
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+8
21.9%
Grant Gunnell run for 8 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
23.1%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+1
23.3%
Jamarye Joiner run for 1 yd to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+15
23.0%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
24.2%
Grant Gunnell run for no gain to the USC 39Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+13
24.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 13 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
25.2%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 2 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
25.6%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the USC 24Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
25.0%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Boobie CurrySimilar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+42
24.3%
Lucas Havrisik 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:4377% → 75%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
23.1%
Vavae Malepeai run for 4 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+8
23.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
23.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
23.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 1 yd to the USC 37Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
24.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+1
24.6%
Ben Griffiths punt for 58 yds , Jamarye Joiner returns for 1 yd to the Ariz 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7FG
15 plays · 88 yds · 5:0825% → 33%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+34
24.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 34 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
25.9%
Gary Brightwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+8
25.6%
Grant Gunnell run for 8 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+7
26.6%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Michael Wiley for 7 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
27.3%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Max Williams and Nick Figueroa for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
25.7%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Jamarye JoinerSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+15
25.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Gary Brightwell for 15 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
27.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 10 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
29.0%
Grant Gunnell run for 12 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
29.3%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Michael WileySimilar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
29.8%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Gary BrightwellSimilar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+8
28.7%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 8 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+25
32.7%
Lucas Havrisik 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2471% → 82%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.6%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
28.2%
Markese Stepp run for 10 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
27.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 17 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
26.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jaxen Turner) to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
25.5%
Kenan Christon run for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+7
25.7%
Stephen Carr run for 7 yds to the Ariz 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
25.8%
USC Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 22Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+19
26.2%
Stephen Carr run for 19 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
18.2%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 2:0422% → 26%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
22.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Gary Brightwell for 4 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+3
22.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+4
22.3%
Grant Gunnell run for 4 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
23.1%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chris Steele) to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
24.4%
Grant Gunnell run for 19 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
26.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 12 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
26.1%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+4
26.0%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-4
23.9%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Raymond Scott for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 14Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
25.5%
Lucas Havrisik 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
25.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:3274% → 72%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
25.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 16 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
24.3%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 39Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+10
25.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 10 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
24.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 2
OWN 49
-5
26.0%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the USC 44Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 7
OWN 44
-5
27.0%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 39Similar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 12
OWN 39
+71
27.7%
Ben Griffiths punt for 61 yds for a touchback ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:1828% → 27%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
27.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+11
27.4%
Gary Brightwell run for 11 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
27.9%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 12:02
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
27.8%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Boobie Curry for 4 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-10
27.6%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Drake Jackson for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 16
OWN 20
+11
26.6%
Tyler Loop punt for 49 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 11 yds to the USC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13FG
5 plays · 47 yds · 0:4374% → 79%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+48
25.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 48 yds to the Ariz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
24.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
24.6%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
25.9%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake LondonSimilar
Q3 9:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
20.9%
Parker Lewis 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
37.5%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Tayvian Cunningham for 75 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:3366% → 63%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.5%
Markese Stepp run for 7 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+49
32.9%
Markese Stepp run for 49 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
30.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 5 yds to the Ariz 14Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+3
30.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Gary Bryant Jr. for 3 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
32.2%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 7:02
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
34.4%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
31.5%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
31.7%
Markese Stepp run for 4 yds to the Ariz 1Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
33.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
33.5%
USC Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 5:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
34.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
37.1%
Parker Lewis 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2741% → 39%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
40.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Boobie Curry) to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+3
40.7%
Gary Brightwell run for 3 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+3
41.1%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Bryce Wolma for 3 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
39.7%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:34
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
38.9%
Tyler Loop punt for 34 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 44 yds · 3:0266% → 62%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
50
+37
34.4%
Stephen Carr run for 37 yds to the Ariz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
33.0%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+1
33.3%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 7
OPP 10
-15
35.3%
USC Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jude Wolfe) to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 1:01
3RD & 22
OPP 25
+21
38.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 21 yds to the Ariz 4Similar
Q3 0:23
4TH & 1
OPP 4
-2
38.2%
Markese Stepp run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4244% → 43%
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
44.0%
Gary Brightwell run for 4 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 10
-5
44.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 5Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 5
+1
44.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 6Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 6
+7
42.7%
Gary Brightwell run for 7 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 3
OWN 13
+6
42.6%
Tyler Loop punt for 53 yds for a 1ST down , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 6 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5163% → 56%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
37.4%
Kedon Slovis run for 1 yd to the Ariz 44Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-2
37.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 11
OPP 46
0
40.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
44.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 24 yds, downed at the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:2747% → 67%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
47.2%
Gary Brightwell run for 15 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
49.4%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Gary Brightwell for 6 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
52.6%
Gary Brightwell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+1
51.8%
Gary Brightwell run for 1 yd to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
50.1%
Grant Gunnell run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
53.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 11 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
55.3%
Michael Wiley run for 6 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
57.0%
Michael Wiley run for 2 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 2
OPP 33
0
55.5%
Gary Brightwell run for no gain to the USC 33Similar
Q4 7:49
4TH & 2
OPP 33
+51
66.8%
Lucas Havrisik 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1239% → 84%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.9%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 24Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
60.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 11 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
60.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
60.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 16 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
55.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 6 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 43
-2
55.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 6
OPP 45
+9
57.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 9 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+31
57.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 31 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
54.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 6Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
55.3%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the Ariz 6Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
16.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 6 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 1:5130% → 89%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
30.1%
Grant Gunnell pass incomplete to Gary BrightwellSimilar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
28.4%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 11 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
31.9%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+15
34.1%
USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
35.5%
Gary Brightwell run for 5 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+6
37.3%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
37.3%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+17
35.6%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Ma'jon Wright for 17 yds to the USC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
89.0%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:0225% → 95%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
74.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 20 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
69.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 9 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+5
65.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 5 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
69.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 14 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
64.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 19 yds to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
4.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24Uncategorized
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:1417% → 21%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.4%
Grant Gunnell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
16.7%
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 22 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
20.8%
Grant Gunnell sacked by Drake Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:25
Vavae Malepeai run for 8 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
-59.6
TD · Q4 1:35
Grant Gunnell pass complete to Stanley Berryhill III for 6 yds for a TD (Lucas Havrisik KICK)
+53.4
TD · Q4 3:30
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Erik Krommenhoek for 6 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
-39.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com