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ASU

Arizona State 27 at USC 28

USC
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:11 · Ben Griffiths punt for 38 yds , Jack Jones returns for 2 yds to the ArzSt 20 Jack Jones fumbled, recovered by USC Quincy Jountti
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 15Pregame prior+26.7Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:48: Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 55 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +8.2 pts (now 36%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:47: DeaMonte Trayanum run for 17 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK) — ASU win probability +21.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 11:23: Christian Zendejas 41 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +14.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:52: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 26 yds for a TD ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Chase McGrath KICK) — USC win probability +19.1 pts (now 22%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:20: Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 21 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK) — USC win probability +49.5 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:11ASU 4th & 4 at USC 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.3%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    21.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:11USC 4th & 3 at USC 44, down 3
    Close callPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:49ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:30ASU 4th & 7 at USC 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%−0.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00USC 4th & 1 at ASU 46, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    74.9%−1.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    75.4%−0.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:32USC 4th & 1 at ASU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−1.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−2.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:38USC 4th & 1 at USC 35, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%−1.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:08ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 45, up 3
    Close callPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00USC 4th & 17 at USC 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−2.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:55ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:41USC 4th & 1 at ASU 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.0%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−3.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−13.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:23ASU 4th & 4 at USC 23, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.5%−0.8
    70% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−11.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:16USC 4th & 1 at USC 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.4%−3.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:16USC 4th & 1 at ASU 31, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−3.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    17.9%−5.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:34ASU 4th & 11 at ASU 42, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−1.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:28USC 4th & 3 at USC 27, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.3%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:52USC 4th & 13 at ASU 26, down 13
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−2.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:20USC 4th & 9 at ASU 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−4.7
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−8.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:55ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.9%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:30USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:39ASU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:10USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:48ASU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:47ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:52USC Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:20USC Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−7.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:4922% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
77.8%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
77.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
77.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 9 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+38
77.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 38 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
77.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 4 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
77.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Frank DarbySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+2
77.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Frank Darby for 2 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
76.9%
Christian Zendejas 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
77.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
77.0%
Kedon Slovis run for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
77.2%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
77.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 1 yd to the USC 44Similar
Q1 12:11
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+2
77.0%
Ben Griffiths punt for 38 yds , Jack Jones returns for 2 yds to the ArzSt 20 Jack Jones fumbled, recovered by USC Quincy JounttiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 19 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 10:07
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+9
76.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 9 yds to the ArzSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
76.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds Vavae Malepeai fumbled, forced by Evan Fields, recovered by ArzSt DeAndre PierceSimilar
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
76.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 6 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q1 10:07
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
76.9%
Vavae Malepeai run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
75.8%
Ricky Pearsall run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
75.8%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
76.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:49
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+8
76.2%
Michael Turk punt for 57 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 8 yds to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:2076% → 77%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
75.5%
[NHSG], Slovis, Kedon pass complete to London, Drake for 4 yards to the USC34, out-of-bounds (Pierce,Deandre), PENALTY USC pass interference (Krommenhoek, Erik) 15 yards to the USC15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 25
OWN 15
+8
75.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 17
OWN 23
0
75.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+24
75.1%
Kedon Slovis run for 24 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
76.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Markese Stepp for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 7
50
+9
76.1%
Markese Stepp run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
76.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Markese Stepp for 9 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
76.3%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
76.3%
[NHSG], Slovis, Kedon pass complete to Wolfe, Jude for 5 yards to the ASU24 (Fields,Evan), PENALTY ASU 12 men on the field 5 yards to the ASU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 5
OPP 24
+2
76.3%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
76.3%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. Brown, broken up by Jack JonesSimilar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+20
76.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 20 yds to the ArzSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
77.1%
Stephen Carr run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.1%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
76.2%
[NHSG], Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete to Darby,Frank, PENALTY USC pass interference (Steele, Chris) 15 yards to the ASU40, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
75.6%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+9
75.5%
[NHSG], Daniels,Jayden sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ASU40 (Tuipulotu, Marlon), fumble by Daniels,Jayden recovered by USC Tuipulotu, Marlon at ASU40, PENALTY USC holding (Steele, Chris) 9 yards to the USC49, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
75.2%
[NHSG], Daniels,Jayden rush for 1 yard to the USC48 (Goforth, Ralen;Tremblay, Caleb), PENALTY ASU holding (Cote,Cade) 10 yards to the ASU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 20
OWN 41
+5
75.9%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+8
75.9%
Jayden Daniels run for 8 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
75.3%
Jayden Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:30
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
76.1%
Michael Turk punt for 43 yds, downed at the USC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7DOWNS
7 plays · 51 yds · 0:3275% → 76%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
75.2%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the USC 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+14
75.0%
Stephen Carr run for 14 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+27
75.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 27 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
76.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 1 yd to the USC 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+8
76.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for 8 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
76.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
75.5%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the ArzSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:1127% → 32%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
73.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+5
74.5%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 5 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+19
74.2%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 19 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
72.9%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to LV Bunkley-SheltonSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
72.9%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 9 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+25
68.2%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 25 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:2270% → 77%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
70.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 2 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
70.0%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+26
69.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 26 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
71.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 13 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
72.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
72.1%
Stephen Carr run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
71.9%
Stephen Carr run for no gain to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+13
71.2%
Stephen Carr run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
72.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Drake London, broken up by Jermayne LoleSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+3
72.7%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+8
71.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 8 yds to the ArzSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
72.7%
Markese Stepp run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.6%
Markese Stepp run for 1 yd for a TD ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:2227% → 36%
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
73.2%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
72.0%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
63.8%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Rachaad White for 55 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
66.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 25Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
65.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler VaughnsSimilar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+10
64.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 10 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
65.4%
Ben Griffiths punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jack Jones at the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
64.8%
Johnny Wilson run for no gain to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+10
65.0%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to LV Bunkley-Shelton for 10 yds LV Bunkley-Shelton fumbled, forced by Talanoa Hufanga, recovered by USC Isaiah Pola-MaoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3269% → 68%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
68.7%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
68.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Amon-Ra St. BrownSimilar
Q2 2:16
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
68.2%
Kedon Slovis pass intercepted Merlin Robertson return for no gain to the ArzSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:0236% → 39%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
64.1%
Rachaad White run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
63.9%
Rachaad White run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+4
64.5%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
63.9%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 13 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
60.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
58.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Johnny Wilson, broken up by Isaiah Pola-MaoSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
59.4%
Jayden Daniels run for no gain to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+43
61.3%
Michael Turk punt for 43 yds, downed at the USC 12 USC Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0064% → 61%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
63.5%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 20
-7
62.9%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Michael Matus and Jermayne Lole for a loss of 7 yards to the USC 13Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 13
+7
61.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 7 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 20
0
61.1%
Ben Griffiths punt for 50 yds, downed at the ArzSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
60.0%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+3
59.7%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Ricky Pearsall for 3 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
60.4%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Johnny Wilson, broken up by Chris SteeleSimilar
Q3 12:55
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+7
61.9%
Michael Turk punt for 57 yds , Amon-Ra St. Brown returns for 7 yds to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17FUMBLE
4 plays · 31 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
60.3%
Markese Stepp run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 14Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+6
60.2%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+6
59.0%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 6 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+35
60.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 20 yds Tyler Vaughns fumbled, forced by Chase Lucas, recovered by ArzSt Tyler Johnson ARIZONA ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Merlin Robertson) to the ArzSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 3:1843% → 63%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-11
57.0%
Jayden Daniels sacked by Marlon Tuipulotu for a loss of 11 yards to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 21
OWN 28
+15
59.7%
[NHSG], Daniels,Jayden pass incomplete to Wilson,Johnny (Griffin, Olaijah), PENALTY USC pass interference (Griffin, Olaijah) 15 yards to the ASU43, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
56.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 13 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-14
56.1%
Geordon Porter run for a loss of 14 yards to the USC 42 ARIZONA ST Penalty, ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 24
OWN 42
+10
58.5%
Jayden Daniels run for 10 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+31
58.8%
Jayden Daniels run for 31 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
37.4%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 17 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19DOWNS
13 plays · 81 yds · 0:0039% → 41%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
39.1%
Markese Stepp run for 8 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+3
39.8%
Markese Stepp run for 3 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
39.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 13 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
40.5%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Tyler Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 31Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+15
39.3%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 15 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
41.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 22 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
44.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 7 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+10
44.6%
Markese Stepp run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+7
44.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 3
OPP 8
+2
44.6%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 1
OPP 6
0
42.8%
Markese Stepp run for no gain to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 1
OPP 6
-1
41.1%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 5:3767% → 87%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
33.3%
Rachaad White run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
32.7%
Rachaad White run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
31.3%
Rachaad White run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+13
30.3%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 13 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
27.6%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+1
27.7%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 1 yd to the USC 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+15
28.2%
Jayden Daniels run for 15 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
26.7%
Rachaad White run for 3 yds to the USC 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+5
26.7%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 5 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
-2
27.8%
DeaMonte Trayanum run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 23Similar
Q4 11:23
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+41
13.1%
Christian Zendejas 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21FUMBLE
16 plays · 60 yds · 0:0021% → 24%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
20.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 1 yd to the USC 18Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+4
20.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 4 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+5
19.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 5 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
21.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Stephen CarrSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
20.6%
Vavae Malepeai run for 5 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+4
20.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 4 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 1
OWN 36
+1
21.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 1 yd to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
21.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 2 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+11
22.0%
Kedon Slovis run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
50
+10
23.0%
Vavae Malepeai run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
23.8%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete, broken up by Jermayne LoleSimilar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
23.2%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
23.8%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Stephen Carr for no gain to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+4
21.9%
[NHSG], PENALTY ASU offside (Johnson,Tyler) 4 yards to the ASU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+8
23.6%
Markese Stepp run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 23 Markese Stepp fumbled, forced by Evan Fields, recovered by ArzSt Merlin RobertsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:3093% → 94%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
7.2%
Rachaad White run for 20 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
6.8%
Rachaad White run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+4
6.9%
Rachaad White run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-2
5.6%
Jayden Daniels run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
5.7%
Michael Turk punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 1:367% → 22%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Bru McCoySimilar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
6.6%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 7 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
7.1%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Tyler Vaughns, broken up by Evan FieldsSimilar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+14
6.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Tyler Vaughns for 14 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+36
7.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Amon-Ra St. Brown for 36 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
7.7%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Vavae Malepeai for 4 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-7
7.7%
Kedon Slovis sacked by Jermayne Lole for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 13
OPP 26
0
3.4%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Stephen Carr, broken up by Michael MatusSimilar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+26
22.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 26 yds for a TD ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Chase McGrath KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 1:2925% → 76%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
25.4%
Vavae Malepeai run for 20 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
30.2%
Vavae Malepeai run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
30.7%
Kedon Slovis pass incomplete to Vavae MalepeaiSimilar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
29.9%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 5 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+1
29.1%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Bru McCoy for 1 yd to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 4
OPP 16
-5
26.9%
[NHSG], PENALTY USC false start (McKenzie, Jalen) 5 yards to the ASU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+21
76.4%
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 21 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:2534% → 30%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
66.1%
Jayden Daniels pass complete to Geordon Porter for 18 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
61.0%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Geordon PorterSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
62.5%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to Geordon Porter, broken up by Chris SteeleSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
64.2%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to LV Bunkley-SheltonSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
69.6%
Jayden Daniels pass incomplete to LV Bunkley-SheltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
81.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-2
80.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:20
Kedon Slovis pass complete to Drake London for 21 yds for a TD (Parker Lewis KICK)
+49.5
TD · Q3 6:47
DeaMonte Trayanum run for 17 yds for a TD (Christian Zendejas KICK)
-21.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+20
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com