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FRES

Fresno State 39 at New Mexico 49

UNM
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · University Stadium (NM)
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Win probability · UNM
modelUNM aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUNM scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:28 · Carson King punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Emmanuel Logan-Greene at the NMex 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Pregame prior−28.9Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:23: Bobby Cole run for 4 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK) — UNM win probability +10.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:53: Jake Haener run for 3 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) — FRES win probability +7.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:49: Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Conner Kinslow for 49 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK) — UNM win probability +17.7 pts (now 38%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 10:20: Nathaniel Jones run for 10 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK) — UNM win probability +26.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:26: Bobby Cole run for 35 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK) — UNM win probability +25.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:28FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:27FRES 4th & 5 at UNM 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:21UNM 4th & 3 at UNM 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:23FRES 4th & 20 at FRES 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−2.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:38UNM 4th & 12 at UNM 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:52FRES 4th & 1 at UNM 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.4%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:42FRES 4th & 22 at FRES 41, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−5.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:28FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:34UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:54UNM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:47FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:23UNM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:53FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:49UNM Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:20UNM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:26UNM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:33UNM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 1:08FRES Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
18.2%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
18.2%
Nathaniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
18.2%
Isaiah Chavez sacked by Kwami Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the NMex 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
18.2%
Tyson Dyer punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NMex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:4681% → 81%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
19.0%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the NMex 42Similar
Q1 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
19.0%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+32
19.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 32 yds to the NMex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
18.9%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
18.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
19.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 10 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:5419% → 23%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
19.2%
Isaiah Chavez sacked by Justin Houston for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 24Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+27
19.2%
Emmanuel Logan-Greene run for 27 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
19.4%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Bobby Wooden for 15 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
19.5%
Isaiah Chavez run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
19.5%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+4
19.4%
Isaiah Chavez run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
19.5%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 2 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+17
19.5%
Isaiah Chavez run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.4%
Isaiah Chavez run for 3 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
22.3%
Jake Haener sacked by Kameron Miller for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 20
OWN 21
-3
22.5%
Jake Haener sacked by Ben Gansallo for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 23
OWN 18
+17
22.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 17 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
22.8%
Carson King punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Emmanuel Logan-Greene at the NMex 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
23.8%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 3 yds to the NMex 19Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-7
23.7%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 6 yds to the NMex 25 NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (-13 Yards) to the NMex 12Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+13
23.3%
Isaiah Chavez run for 13 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.8%
Tyson Dyer punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:0677% → 80%
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
23.5%
Jevon Bigelow run for 5 yds to the NMex 45Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+8
23.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 8 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
23.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 10 yds to the NMex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
23.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 6 yds to the NMex 21Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
23.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 5 yds to the NMex 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
20.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 16 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK) NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0022% → 30%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
21.7%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the NMex 27Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
21.8%
Bobby Cole run for 1 yd to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
21.3%
Isaiah Chavez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+15
21.1%
DYER, Tyson punt 44 yards to the FS28, fair catch by POPE, Zane, PENALTY FS roughing the kicker (BROWN, Jordan) 15 yards to the NM43, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
22.4%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 10 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+44
22.9%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Marcus Williams for 44 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.4%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8FG
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:2272% → 74%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+51
27.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Mac Dalena for 51 yds to the NMex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
25.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Mac Dalena for 5 yds to the NMex 13Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 5
OPP 13
0
25.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly, broken up by Patrick PeekSimilar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
26.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+30
26.4%
Asa Fuller 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
27.7%
Isaiah Chavez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
27.6%
Bobby Cole run for 4 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+3
27.7%
Isaiah Chavez run for 3 yds to the NMex 41Similar
Q2 10:21
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
27.4%
Tyson Dyer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Zane Pope at the FrsSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
1 play · 84 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
22.2%
Jordan Mims run for 84 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:2021% → 32%
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
21.3%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the NMex 31Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
21.2%
Bobby Cole run for 1 yd to the NMex 32Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+54
20.9%
Isaiah Chavez run for 54 yds to the FrsSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
23.2%
Chad Alexander run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+4
23.2%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Marcus Williams for 4 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q2 8:43
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+3
22.4%
Isaiah Chavez run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
32.4%
Bobby Cole run for 4 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 5 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
27.5%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside (Ray Leutele) to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
27.6%
Jake Haener sacked by Ben Gansallo for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+14
28.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 14 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
26.5%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 11
OWN 46
-9
27.0%
Jake Haener sacked by Joey Noble for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 20
OWN 37
0
28.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Mac Dalena, broken up by Donte MartinSimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 20
OWN 37
0
29.2%
Carson King punt for 37 yds, downed at the NMex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:0531% → 30%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
30.6%
Isaiah Chavez run for 2 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+7
30.6%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Marcus Williams for 7 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+3
31.2%
Isaiah Chavez run for 3 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-12
31.3%
Isaiah Chavez sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 12 yards to the NMex 26 NEW MEXICO Penalty, intentional grounding (Isaiah Chavez) to the NMex 26Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 22
OWN 26
+4
29.9%
Isaiah Chavez run for 4 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+6
29.7%
Bobby Cole run for 6 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+9
29.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 49 yds , Zane Pope returns for 9 yds to the FrsSt 45 FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
28.4%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
18 plays · 70 yds · 7:5972% → 82%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
28.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jevon BigelowSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-1
28.9%
Jevon Bigelow run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+13
29.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
27.2%
Jevon Bigelow run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
27.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
27.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 5 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+3
28.4%
Jevon Bigelow run for 3 yds to the NMex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
26.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jevon Bigelow for 9 yds to the NMex 37Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+6
26.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 6 yds Jalen Cropper fumbled, forced by Devin Sanders, recovered by FrsSt Jalen Cropper for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-13
26.1%
Jake Haener sacked by Joey Noble for a loss of 13 yards to the NMex 44Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 23
OPP 44
+14
27.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 14 yds to the NMex 30Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+5
27.2%
Jake Haener run for 5 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+12
28.7%
HAENER, Jake pass incomplete to KELLY, Josh, PENALTY NM roughing passer (SHOOK, Brandon) 12 yards to the NM13, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
25.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 11 yds to the NMex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
25.9%
Jake Haener sacked by Patrick Peek and Tavian Combs for a loss of 3 yards to the NMex 5Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
25.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMex 3Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
18.0%
Jake Haener run for 3 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 16TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:5819% → 38%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
19.4%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for no gain to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
19.3%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 6 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+9
19.0%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
20.4%
Isaiah Chavez run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (Isaiah Johnson) to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
38.1%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Conner Kinslow for 49 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0069% → 66%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+24
31.1%
Jevon Bigelow run for 9 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Joey Noble) to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-12
28.5%
Jake Haener sacked by Jake Saltonstall for a loss of 12 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 22
OWN 41
0
30.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 22
OWN 41
0
31.7%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 22
OWN 41
0
33.6%
Carson King punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Emmanuel Logan-Greene at the NMex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 18TD
16 plays · 85 yds · 7:3334% → 70%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
34.3%
Nathaniel Jones run for 1 yd to the NMex 16Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+7
34.2%
Bobby Cole run for 7 yds to the NMex 23Similar
Q3 2:53
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+9
33.7%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
35.2%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 35Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+3
35.4%
Nathaniel Jones run for 3 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-10
37.9%
CHAVEZ, Isaiah rush for loss of 2 yards to the NM36 (BAILEY, Levelle), PENALTY NM holding (COOK, Austin) 10 yards to the NM28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 28
0
33.7%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
39.4%
Isaiah Chavez pass incomplete to Andrew EricksonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+4
37.4%
Bobby Cole run for 4 yds to the NMex 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+7
38.7%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 7 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
41.0%
Isaiah Chavez pass incomplete to Bobby WoodenSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+2
40.7%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+9
39.8%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
43.3%
JARVIS, Kyle pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Mar., PENALTY FS pass interference (GAGNON, Kenny) 15 yards to the FS19, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
43.3%
Emmanuel Logan-Greene run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+10
69.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 10 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · -10 yds · 0:0039% → 36%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
60.8%
Jevon Bigelow run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
57.4%
Jevon Bigelow run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
59.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Mac Dalena, broken up by Jerrick Reed IISimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-19
60.3%
Jake Haener sacked by Kameron Miller for a loss of 19 yards to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 29
OWN 15
-5
63.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (Jake Haener) to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 34
OWN 10
0
63.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q4 10:10
4TH & 34
OWN 10
+9
64.5%
Carson King punt for 34 yds , Emmanuel Logan-Greene returns for 9 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 20TD
1 play · 35 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
89.9%
Bobby Cole run for 35 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21INT
7 plays · 43 yds · 0:0011% → 15%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 7 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+24
87.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 24 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
86.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Mac Dalena for 8 yds to the NMex 36Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
85.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+4
86.3%
Jevon Bigelow run for 4 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-33
85.3%
Jake Haener pass intercepted Patrick Peek return for 18 yds to the NMex 14 NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Donovan Murphree) to the NMex 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 22TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 2:4592% → 99%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+27
91.8%
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 27 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
92.5%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+2
92.4%
Bobby Cole run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q4 5:18
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+30
92.2%
Bobby Cole run for 30 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.6%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 1:182% → 8%
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
98.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+13
98.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 13 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+16
98.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 16 yds to the NMex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
98.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Zane Pope for 7 yds to the NMex 38Similar
Q4 2:26
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+14
97.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 14 yds to the NMex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
97.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
92.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Mac Dalena for 24 yds for a TD (Jake Haener pass to Zane Pope for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0895% → 96%
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
95.4%
Bryson Carroll run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+6
96.2%
Bryson Carroll run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+5
96.3%
Bryson Carroll run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
96.4%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:20
Nathaniel Jones run for 10 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)
+26.4
TD · Q4 7:26
Bobby Cole run for 35 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)
+25.4
TD · Q3 4:49
Isaiah Chavez pass complete to Conner Kinslow for 49 yds for a TD (Donovan Murphree KICK)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com