2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · War Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · WYO
modelWYO aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playWYO scoreBOIS score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:41 · Gavin Beerup pass intercepted Evan Tyler return for no gain to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 7:38: Jonah Dalmas 34 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +3.8 pts (now 73%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:12: Levi Williams pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 29 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST down — WYO win probability +4.7 pts (now 31%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:19: John Hoyland 36 yd FG GOOD — WYO win probability +5.5 pts (now 37%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:57: Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 5:22: BOISE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (JL Skinner) to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST down — BOIS win probability +4.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WYO made the numbers' call on 9 of 14BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
- Q1 11:03WYO 4th & 11 at BOIS 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snapGo for it29.7%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call29.7%66% to makePunt29.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:41WYO 4th & 1 at BOIS 34, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.6%71% to convertField goal30.8%−0.847% to makePunt30.6%−1.0average punt
- Q2 14:48WYO 4th & 11 at BOIS 31, down 4Close callPunted · 32.1% before the snapGo for it31.7%−0.426% to convertField goal32.1%54% to makePuntTheir call31.5%−0.6average punt
- Q2 12:20BOIS 4th & 1 at BOIS 29, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 66.3% before the snapGo for it67.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.9%−1.2average punt
- Q2 11:30WYO 4th & 8 at WYO 33, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it32.2%−0.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.0%average punt
- Q2 7:38BOIS 4th & 10 at WYO 17, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.9% before the snapGo for it65.9%−0.827% to convertField goalTheir call66.6%80% to makePunt62.1%−4.5average punt
- Q2 7:38WYO 4th & 7 at WYO 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snapGo for it27.7%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%average punt
- Q2 5:37BOIS 4th & 7 at WYO 17, up 7Close callWent for it · 72.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call71.3%−0.235% to convertField goal71.5%80% to makePunt67.0%−4.5average punt
- Q2 4:12WYO 4th & 19 at WYO 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snapGo for it25.5%−2.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.2%average punt
- Q2 2:42BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snapGo for it72.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.6%average punt
- Q2 0:59WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 21, down 7Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snapGo for it27.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 15:00WYO 4th & 4 at WYO 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.8% before the snapGo for it28.3%−1.048% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.3%average punt
- Q3 12:59BOIS 4th & 9 at WYO 42, up 7Close callPunted · 73.1% before the snapGo for it73.2%32% to convertField goal72.3%−0.930% to makePuntTheir call73.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:41WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 3, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snapGo for it23.9%−3.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.3%average punt
- Q3 6:19WYO 4th & 4 at BOIS 19, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snapGo for it30.7%47% to convertField goalTheir call30.3%−0.577% to makePunt19.6%−11.1average punt
- Q4 15:00WYO 4th & 14 at WYO 20, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snapGo for it14.7%−1.817% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.5%average punt
- Q4 14:51BOIS 4th & 6 at WYO 41, up 11Close callPunted · 82.5% before the snapGo for it82.9%40% to convertField goal81.7%−1.232% to makePuntTheir call82.1%−0.7average punt
- Q4 12:47WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 25, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snapGo for it14.8%−0.540% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.2%average punt
- Q4 11:15BOIS 4th & 4 at WYO 49, up 11Close callPunted · 86.4% before the snapGo for it86.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.2%−0.6average punt
- Q4 4:30WYO 4th & 14 at BOIS 19, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.2%17% to convertField goalTheir call9.1%−0.177% to makePunt7.3%−1.9average punt
- Q4 0:50BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 38, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snapGo for it94.2%−0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.3%average punt
- Q4 0:41WYO 4th & 17 at WYO 13, down 8Close callWent for it · 6.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.4%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:41BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call68.9%97% to makeGo for two68.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:57BOIS Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.0%97% to makeGo for two81.9%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBOISDrive 1INT4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
WYODrive 2FG6 plays · 9 yds · 2:3827% → 29%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
27.3%
Levi Williams pass complete to Trey Smith for 4 yds to the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3TD13 plays · 75 yds · 6:2271% → 71%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
28.6%
Khalil Shakir run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
50
+9
28.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 9 yds to the Wyom 41Similar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
28.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 10 yds to the Wyom 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+19
28.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 19 yds to the Wyom 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
28.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 4 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4PUNT15 plays · 44 yds · 4:5330% → 31%
Q1 4:41
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+12
29.8%
Levi Williams pass complete to Dontae Crow for 12 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1969% → 68%
WYODrive 6PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 11:30
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+29
31.3%
Nick Null punt for 44 yds, downed at the WYOMING 23 WYOMING Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the BoiSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7FG9 plays · 45 yds · 2:5869% → 73%
Q2 10:36
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
31.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 5 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+15
31.1%
WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Wyom 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
30.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for no gain to the Wyom 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q2 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-4
27.7%
Levi Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wyom 22 Levi Williams fumbled, recovered by Wyom Levi WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:38
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+22
26.4%
Nick Null punt blocked by Tyric LeBeauf blocked by Tyric LeBeauf Jaylen Clark return for 12 yds to the Wyom 40 BOISE ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9DOWNS4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
WYODrive 10PUNT4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
BOISDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
WYODrive 12PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:2127% → 28%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13END OF HALF6 plays · 49 yds · 0:0075% → 76%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
24.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Billy Bowens for 10 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+10
23.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 10 yds to the Wyom 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+23
23.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 23 yds to the Wyom 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
27.0%
Nick Null punt for 39 yds , Avery Williams returns for no gain to the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
24.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to George Holani for 4 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+6
24.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 6 yds to the Wyom 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
24.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to CT Thomas, broken up by Azizi HearnSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-11
24.4%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Garrett Crall for a loss of 11 yards to the WYOMING 46 BOISE ST Penalty, intentional grounding ( Yards) to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 16
OPP 49
+7
26.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 7 yds to the Wyom 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
WYODrive 17FG5 plays · 35 yds · 1:5331% → 37%
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
30.5%
Levi Williams pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 29 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:2267% → 85%
Q3 6:19
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
33.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
31.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+33
31.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 33 yds to the Wyom 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+11
29.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Tyneil Hopper for 11 yds to the Wyom 13Similar
Q3 2:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
24.1%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass incomplete to SMITH, Riley, PENALTY WYO pass interference (HEARN, Azizi) 8 yards to the WYO2, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 19PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:5017% → 15%
Q3 0:50
3RD & 7
OWN 27
-7
16.0%
Levi Williams sacked by Jackson Cravens for a loss of 7 yards to the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 11:15
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+15
12.4%
Joel Velazquez punt for 36 yds , Dontae Crow returns for 15 yds to the Wyom 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23FG17 plays · 53 yds · 5:0912% → 11%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
13.2%
Gavin Beerup pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 19 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+15
8.3%
BOISE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (JL Skinner) to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-4
11.7%
Gavin Beerup sacked by Isaiah Bagnah for a loss of 4 yards to the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 24PUNT10 plays · 18 yds · 3:3892% → 97%
Q4 0:50
4TH & 2
OWN 38
+6
3.2%
Joel Velazquez punt for 48 yds , Ayden Eberhardt returns for 6 yds to the Wyom 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:57
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-8.8
FG · Q3 6:19
John Hoyland 36 yd FG GOOD
+5.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:12
Levi Williams pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for 29 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST down
+4.7