View as
Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:36 · Charlton Butt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dontae Crow at the Wyom 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:00: Levi Williams run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +5.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:05: Max Gilliam run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +5.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:27: Levi Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +8.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:27: Levi Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +6.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:19: Trey Smith run for 28 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK) — WYO win probability +1.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 14:02UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 36, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.7%average punt
- Q1 12:43WYO 4th & 1 at UNLV 26, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call84.0%71% to convertField goal83.9%−0.164% to makePunt83.5%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:52WYO 4th & 7 at UNLV 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.7% before the snapGo for it82.6%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call82.7%77% to makePunt81.7%−1.0average punt
- Q1 6:52UNLV 4th & 24 at UNLV 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snapGo for it16.9%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.1%average punt
- Q1 3:20WYO 4th & 5 at WYO 29, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snapGo for it81.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.9%average punt
- Q1 2:20UNLV 4th & 6 at UNLV 35, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snapGo for it17.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.3%average punt
- Q2 13:42WYO 4th & 10 at WYO 34, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snapGo for it80.6%−0.529% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.2%average punt
- Q2 13:36UNLV 4th & 3 at UNLV 37, down 10Close callPunted · 17.6% before the snapGo for it17.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 8:00UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snapGo for it13.7%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.0%average punt
- Q2 6:36WYO 4th & 6 at UNLV 41, up 17Close callPunted · 87.9% before the snapGo for it87.9%40% to convertField goal87.1%−0.832% to makePuntTheir call87.3%−0.6average punt
- Q3 15:00UNLV 4th & 3 at WYO 46, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call19.4%52% to convertField goal17.8%−1.623% to makePunt19.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 13:22UNLV 4th & 20 at WYO 49, down 31Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.210% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WYO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 14:02WYO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call84.2%97% to makeGo for two84.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:00WYO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.8%97% to makeGo for two85.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:05UNLV Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call18.5%97% to makeGo for two18.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:27WYO Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two88.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:27WYO Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:19WYO Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:37WYO Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:20UNLV Touchdown, down 32 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWYODrive 1TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5884% → 84%
UNLVDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
16.4%
Tyleek Collins run for a loss of 9 yards to the UNLV 16 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 31
0
16.4%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Tyleek Collins, broken up by Keonte GlintonSimilar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+5
16.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 5 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+4
16.4%
Charlton Butt punt for 41 yds , Dontae Crow returns for 4 yds to the Wyom 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 3FG14 plays · 54 yds · 5:5183% → 82%
Q1 12:43
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+13
16.7%
Levi Williams pass complete to Dontae Crow for 13 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-1
16.6%
Levi Williams sacked by Jacoby Windmon and Waisale Muavesi for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+4
16.7%
Levi Williams pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 4 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT10 plays · 11 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
18.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 8 yds to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
18.2%
Courtney Reese run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+1
18.3%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Courtney Reese for 1 yd to the UNLV 46Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 14
OWN 46
-2
18.2%
Max Gilliam sacked by Garrett Crall for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 44Similar
Q1 6:52
3RD & 16
OWN 44
-8
18.0%
Max Gilliam sacked by Chad Muma for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 6:52
4TH & 24
OWN 36
-2
17.8%
Charlton Butt punt for 38 yds , Dontae Crow returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Wyom 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 5PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 3:20
4TH & 5
OPP 0
0
18.4%
NULL, Nick punt 38 yards to the UNLV33, downed, PENALTY UNLV holding off-setting, PENALTY WYO kick catching interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:20
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+7
19.0%
Nick Null punt for 47 yds , Tyleek Collins returns for 7 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 7PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 2:1681% → 81%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-4
18.5%
WILLIAMS, Levi sacked for loss of 4 yards to the WYO34 (TEAM), PENALTY WYO intentional grounding (WILLIAMS, Levi) 4 yards to the WYO34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
19.3%
Levi Williams pass complete to Xazavian Valladay for no gain to the Wyom 34Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
19.5%
Nick Null punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Tyleek Collins at the UNLV 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 13:36
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
18.2%
Charlton Butt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dontae Crow at the Wyom 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 9TD9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1581% → 88%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+27
18.4%
Levi Williams pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 27 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
WYODrive 11PUNT8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
11.7%
Levi Williams pass complete to Isaiah Neyor for 15 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12TD12 plays · 98 yds · 2:5213% → 20%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
13.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for no gain to the UNLV 29Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
13.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 15 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
14.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 3 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+5
13.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Charles Williams for 5 yds to the Wyom 48Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+7
13.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 7 yds to the Wyom 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+29
13.8%
Max Gilliam run for 20 yds to the Wyom 18 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, personal foul (9 Yards) to the Wyom 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
14.4%
GILLIAM,Max pass incomplete to GRIFFIN,Zyell, PENALTY WYO pass interference (HEARN, Azizi) 7 yards to the WYO2, 1ST DOWN UNLV, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14DOWNS8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
WYODrive 15TD9 plays · 47 yds · 4:4382% → 91%
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
17.6%
Levi Williams pass complete to Trey Smith for 8 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16FUMBLE4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
WYODrive 17TD5 plays · 31 yds · 2:0491% → 97%
Q3 7:31
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+21
8.9%
Levi Williams pass complete to Colin O"Brien for 21 yds to the UNLV 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 18INT7 plays · 28 yds · 0:004% → 4%
WYODrive 19TD5 plays · 56 yds · 2:1498% → 99%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
2.2%
Levi Williams pass complete to Ayden Eberhardt for 11 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 20PUNT12 plays · 30 yds · 2:512% → 0%
Q3 1:13
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-2
1.5%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Jaylen Pate for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 17
+21
0.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 21 yds to the UNLV 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
0.7%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 23 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-10
0.8%
WILLIAMS,C. rush for no gain to the WYO39 (SUIAUNOA, Shae), PENALTY UNLV HOL (BRAYTON,Matt) 10 yards to the WYO49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 49
+14
0.8%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 14 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
Q4 13:22
3RD & 5
OPP 34
-10
0.4%
Doug Brumfield sacked by Chad Muma for a loss of 10 yards to the Wyom 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21TD9 plays · 79 yds · 3:55100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 22TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:170% → 0%
Q4 7:37
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+35
0.1%
Doug Brumfield pass complete to Kyle Williams for 35 yds to the Wyom 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23END OF GAME7 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:27
Levi Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q3 5:27
Levi Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-6
TD · Q2 8:00
Levi Williams run for 15 yds for a TD, (John Hoyland KICK)
-5.9