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UNM

New Mexico 0 at Air Force 28

AF
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2020 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadUNM aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreUNM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:24 · Charles Bein punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Emmanuel Logan-Greene at the NMex 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 75Home team on offense+20.0Score differential+14.1Pregame prior+9.5Garbage-time factor+6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:07: Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK) — AF win probability +2.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:28: Brad Roberts run for 5 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK) — AF win probability +5.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 11:20: Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 37 — AF win probability +3.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 6:13: Brad Roberts run for 12 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK) — AF win probability +12.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:34: Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 31 — AF win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UNM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UNM 4th & 8 at AF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:07UNM 4th & 10 at UNM 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:13UNM 4th & 6 at UNM 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.2%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 1:24AF 4th & 4 at AF 42, up 21
    Close callPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 11 at AF 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 13:05UNM 4th & 7 at AF 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:05UNM 4th & 20 at AF 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:23UNM 4th & 15 at AF 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:00UNM 4th & 15 at AF 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−2.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:46AF 4th & 1 at UNM 4, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:14UNM 4th & 7 at AF 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:20AF 4th & 4 at AF 43, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:07AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:28AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:13AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:38AF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNMDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 46 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
68.2%
Trae Hall pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 5 yds to the NMex 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+9
68.2%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds to the NMex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.2%
Trae Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
68.2%
Trae Hall pass complete to Marcus Williams for 10 yds to the NMex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
68.2%
Trae Hall run for 5 yds to the NMex 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+15
68.2%
Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 15 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
68.2%
COLE, Bobby rush for 10 yards to the AF35 (PALM, Elisha), PENALTY NM holding 10 yards to the NM45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+5
68.2%
Trae Hall pass complete to Chad Alexander for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
50
+7
68.2%
Trae Hall pass complete to Bobby Wooden for 7 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
0
68.2%
Trae Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
68.2%
Tyson Dyer punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 5:5568% → 71%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
67.7%
Brad Roberts run for no gain to the AFA 14Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+7
67.6%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+5
67.5%
Matthew Murla run for 5 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
67.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+7
67.8%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
67.9%
Brandon Lewis run for 8 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+6
67.7%
Joshua Stoner run for 6 yds to the NMex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
67.8%
Matthew Murla run for 14 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
67.9%
Matthew Murla run for 25 yds to the NMex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
67.9%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the NMex 4Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
70.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.9%
Bobby Cole run for no gain to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
70.0%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene, broken up by Corvan TaylorSimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
70.2%
Trae Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
70.5%
Tyson Dyer punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 4:4870% → 77%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
70.1%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
70.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-5
70.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+5
69.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the AFA 37Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 1
OWN 37
-5
70.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+14
69.8%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 14 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
70.9%
Joshua Stoner run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+1
70.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+28
70.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 28 yds to the NMex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
71.1%
Jorden Gidrey run for 4 yds to the NMex 25Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+3
71.1%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the NMex 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+17
71.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 17 yds to the NMex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.8%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 5FUMBLE
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:0025% → 27%
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
74.6%
Emmanuel Logan-Greene run for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
74.2%
Bobby Cole run for 4 yds to the NMex 33Similar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
74.3%
Bobby Cole run for 3 yds to the NMex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
74.1%
Trae Hall pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
50
+4
73.5%
Trae Hall pass complete to Bobby Wooden for 4 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 14:28
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
73.4%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Bobby WoodenSimilar
Q2 14:28
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+6
73.5%
Trae Hall pass complete to Chad Alexander for 6 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
73.4%
Trae Hall pass complete to Marcus Williams for 3 yds Marcus Williams fumbled, forced by Caleb Humphrey, recovered by AFA Kalawai'a PescaiaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 5:0777% → 90%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
77.2%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+7
77.5%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
76.7%
DANIELS, Haaziq pass incomplete to LEWIS, Brandon, PENALTY AF holding off-setting, PENALTY NM pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
78.2%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
78.1%
Joshua Stoner run for 4 yds to the NMex 49Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+12
77.6%
Brad Roberts run for 12 yds to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+18
78.3%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 18 yds to the NMex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
78.3%
Matthew Murla run for 4 yds to the NMex 15Similar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
78.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the NMex 12Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+12
90.4%
Brad Roberts run for 12 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.8%
Bobby Cole run for 4 yds to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
87.3%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Andrew Erickson, broken up by Jayden GoodwinSimilar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
87.7%
Trae Hall pass complete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
87.4%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NMex 29Similar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
88.1%
Tyson Dyer punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 3:1091% → 93%
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.1%
Brad Roberts run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
91.2%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
91.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
91.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
91.4%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
91.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 1:24
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
93.2%
Charles Bein punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Emmanuel Logan-Greene at the NMex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 1:189% → 10%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
91.5%
Daevon Vigilant run for 6 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+12
91.4%
Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 12 yds to the NMex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.0%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+12
91.4%
Trae Hall pass complete to Anselem Umeh for 12 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
90.9%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Anselem UmehSimilar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
90.9%
Trae Hall run for 12 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
89.9%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
90.4%
Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 11 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
90.1%
George Steinkamp 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Michael PurcellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.2%
Joshua Stoner run for 8 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-10
93.4%
DANIELS, Haaziq pass complete to LEWIS, Brandon for 59 yards to the NM8 (BOLDEN, Nico), PENALTY AF holding (FERGUSON, Parke) 10 yards to the AF23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
93.2%
Jorden Gidrey run for 1 yd to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
93.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Kyle Patterson, broken up by Jake SaltonstallSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
92.6%
Charles Bein punt for 52 yds, downed at the NMex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
92.8%
Trae Hall pass complete to Marcus Williams for no gain to the NMex 24Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
92.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 4 yds to the NMex 28Similar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+10
92.8%
Trae Hall pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 10 yds to the NMex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
92.4%
Trae Hall pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 9 yds to the NMex 47Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+6
91.8%
Daevon Vigilant run for 6 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
92.1%
Daevon Vigilant run for 3 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
92.1%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Andrew EricksonSimilar
Q3 13:05
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
92.3%
Trae Hall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:05
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
92.4%
Tyson Dyer punt for 40 yds, downed at the AFA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12FUMBLE
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
94.9%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q3 10:17
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+1
94.9%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 10Similar
Q3 10:17
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+6
94.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 6 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
95.0%
Matthew Murla run for 4 yds to the AFA 24 Matthew Murla fumbled, forced by Nico Bolden, recovered by NMex Joey NobleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 13MISSED FG
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:166% → 5%
Q3 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-9
94.1%
Trae Hall sacked by George Silvanic for a loss of 9 yards to the AFA 33 NEW MEXICO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 19
OPP 33
0
94.4%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Marcus Williams, broken up by Parker NorenSimilar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 19
OPP 33
-5
94.8%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 8:21
3RD & 24
OPP 38
+4
95.1%
Trae Hall pass complete to Chad Alexander for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 20
OPP 34
+51
95.3%
George Steinkamp 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
95.9%
Joshua Stoner run for 4 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
96.0%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
96.1%
Joshua Stoner run for 4 yds to the AFA 43 Joshua Stoner fumbled, forced by Nico Bolden, recovered by NMex Patrick PeekSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:255% → 3%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
95.4%
Nathaniel Jones run for 9 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+7
94.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 7 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
94.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 5 yds to the AFA 22Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+2
94.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the AFA 20Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+5
95.2%
Trae Hall run for 5 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
94.8%
Nathaniel Jones run for 2 yds to the AFA 13Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-7
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NMex Nathaniel JonesSimilar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
95.4%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Emmanuel Logan-GreeneSimilar
Q3 2:23
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+37
96.9%
George Steinkamp 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
97.2%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-12
97.3%
PETERSON, Ben rush for 8 yards to the AF32, out-of-bounds (BOLDEN, Nico), PENALTY AF personal foul (KREPSZ, Kyle) 12 yards to the AF12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+7
97.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 18 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, forced by Joey Noble, recovered by NMex Jerrick Reed IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:233% → 2%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
96.9%
Bobby Cole run for 9 yds to the AFA 9Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 1
OPP 9
-10
96.9%
COLE, Bobby rush for 2 yards to the AF7 (SILVANIC, Georg), PENALTY NM holding (COOK, Austin) 10 yards to the AF19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 11
OPP 19
-4
97.0%
Trae Hall pass complete to Chad Alexander for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 23Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 15
OPP 23
0
97.3%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+40
98.1%
Andrew Shelley 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18DOWNS
15 plays · 73 yds · 1:1498% → 99%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
98.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 29 Haaziq Daniels fumbled, forced by Devin Sanders, recovered by AFA Adam JewellSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+7
98.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 7 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
98.9%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
98.9%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
98.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Patrick Peek) to the NMex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.9%
NEW MEXICO Penalty, Defensive offside (Joey Noble) to the NMex 32Similar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 5
OPP 32
+1
98.9%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the NMex 31Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+8
98.9%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the NMex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
98.9%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the NMex 20Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+7
98.9%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the NMex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
98.9%
Matthew Murla run for 2 yds to the NMex 11Similar
Q4 13:46
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+6
98.9%
Matthew Murla run for 6 yds to the NMex 5Similar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+1
98.9%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the NMex 4Similar
Q4 13:46
4TH & 1
OPP 4
0
98.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the NMex 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 19DOWNS
9 plays · 40 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
98.9%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+13
98.9%
Trae Hall pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 13 yds to the NMex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
98.8%
Trae Hall pass complete to Jordan Kress for 16 yds to the NMex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
98.7%
Trae Hall pass complete to Andrew Erickson for 11 yds to the NMex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
98.7%
HALL, Trae pass incomplete to KRESS, Jordan, PENALTY AF holding (PALM, Elisha) 10 yards to the AF46, 1ST DOWN NM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
98.7%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
98.7%
Trae Hall pass complete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+2
98.7%
Trae Hall run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 7
OPP 43
-13
98.7%
Trae Hall sacked by Brandon Gooding for a loss of 13 yards to the NMex 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
99.9%
Brad Roberts run for 44 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNMDrive 21INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Marcus WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+49
99.9%
Trae Hall pass complete to Emmanuel Logan-Greene for 49 yds to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
99.9%
Trae Hall run for 8 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 2
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Trae Hall pass incomplete to Jordan KressSimilar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 2
OPP 18
-12
99.9%
Trae Hall run for 3 yds to the AFA 15 NEW MEXICO Penalty, personal foul (Kyle Stapley) to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 14
OPP 30
-20
99.9%
Trae Hall pass intercepted Corvan Taylor return for 20 yds to the AFA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22END OF GAME
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Bo Gross run for 5 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Warren Bryan run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+13
99.9%
Micah Davis run for 13 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Bo Gross run for 3 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
99.9%
Bo Gross run for 1 yd to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Warren Bryan run for 2 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+8
99.9%
CJ McNeal run for 8 yds to the NMex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:13
Brad Roberts run for 12 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q2 14:28
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)
+5.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 11:20
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 37
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com