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FRES

Fresno State 35 at Utah State 16

USU
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Cade Fuller punt for 46 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 5 yds to the UthSt 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+50.5+25.30−25.3−50.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 41Pregame prior−24.9Home team on offense+1.8Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:27: Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 59 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +4.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:41: Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 71 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined — FRES win probability +7.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:59: Connor Coles 38 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +4.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:34: Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +7.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:21: Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 44 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +5.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:56FRES 4th & 4 at USU 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−<0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    72.0%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:27FRES 4th & 22 at FRES 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:56USU 4th & 7 at FRES 39, up 6
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 10, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:17USU 4th & 6 at USU 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:44FRES 4th & 8 at FRES 17, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:15USU 4th & 4 at USU 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:59USU 4th & 21 at FRES 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.6%
    74% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−4.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00USU 4th & 10 at USU 34, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:29FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 46, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:08USU 4th & 10 at USU 16, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:12FRES 4th & 20 at FRES 31, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−4.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:11USU 4th & 23 at USU 14, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−3.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:59USU 4th & 5 at USU 30, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 4 at USU 49, up 12
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:06USU 4th & 15 at USU 5, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−2.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:46FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 36, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:11USU 4th & 1 at FRES 41, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.6
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−1.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:21USU 4th & 7 at FRES 7, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:02USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:46FRES Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:27FRES Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:41FRES Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:34FRES Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:21FRES Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1INT
12 plays · 63 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
19.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+2
19.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+36
19.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 36 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
19.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+4
19.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 4 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+3
19.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
19.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UthSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 23
0
19.5%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+6
19.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the UthSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
19.5%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UthSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 12
-11
19.5%
Jake Haener pass intercepted Shaq Bond return for 11 yds to the UthSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2TD
1 play · 86 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+86
22.4%
Jaylen Warren run for 86 yds for a TD (Connor Coles PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:1078% → 77%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
22.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
22.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 12 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
22.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
22.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+4
22.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 4 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
21.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Rory Hanson for 15 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
21.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 2 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+10
21.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 10 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
21.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
21.8%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+3
21.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Rory Hanson for 3 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 4
OPP 16
+7
22.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Rory Hanson for 7 yds to the UthSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
23.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 9 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
27.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 6 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-8
26.8%
Jake Haener sacked by Cam Lampkin for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q1 4:27
3RD & 12
OWN 25
-10
27.6%
Jake Haener sacked by Elijah Shelton for a loss of 10 yards to the FrsSt 15Similar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 22
OWN 15
0
27.9%
Cade Fuller punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
30.0%
Jason Shelley run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
30.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Bryce Mortenson for 1 yd to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 2:56
3RD & 6
OPP 38
-1
29.7%
Pailate Makakona run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q1 2:56
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
29.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 38 yds, downed at the FrsSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5270% → 69%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
30.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 4Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+5
30.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 5 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+1
31.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 1 yd to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+5
31.5%
Cade Fuller punt for 46 yds , Jordan Nathan returns for 5 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+36
33.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 36 yds to the FrsSt 4 Jaylen Warren fumbled, forced by Evan Williams, recovered by FrsSt Bralyn LuxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9TD
4 plays · 96 yds · 1:2768% → 74%
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
31.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+28
31.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 28 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
30.7%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+59
26.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 59 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+24
27.9%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 24 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
29.2%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 4 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
29.4%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Carson Terrell, broken up by Arron MosbySimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 6
OWN 45
0
28.8%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
27.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 52 yds, downed at the FrsSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
28.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+8
28.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
28.1%
Jake Haener run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 8
OWN 17
0
28.1%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 8
OWN 17
0
28.8%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 8
OWN 17
0
29.3%
Cade Fuller punt for 48 yds, downed at the UthSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
30.5%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
30.4%
Jason Shelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+7
29.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 7 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
30.1%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13TD
4 plays · 85 yds · 1:2071% → 79%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
28.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
28.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh Kelly, broken up by Dominic TatumSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+8
29.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
21.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 71 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 14FG
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:3522% → 28%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
22.0%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 6 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
23.3%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 3 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+10
23.0%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+44
23.8%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 44 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
24.6%
Jason Shelley run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-16
24.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 16 yards to the FrsSt 17 UTAH ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
-4
22.5%
Jason Shelley sacked by Kurtis Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+38
28.0%
Connor Coles 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 1:2073% → 84%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
26.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 14 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
25.3%
Jake Haener run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+16
24.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 16 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
23.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 14 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
23.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 11 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
23.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 11 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
15.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
18.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
18.5%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+18
18.4%
Jason Shelley run for 18 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
18.9%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
18.8%
Jaylen Warren run for 6 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-6
19.0%
Jason Shelley sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
18.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 37 yds, downed at the FrsSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
17.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 13 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
16.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 9 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
16.2%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 1
OPP 49
-5
16.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Quireo Woodley) to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
16.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Erik Brooks, broken up by Shaq BondSimilar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
17.5%
Cade Fuller punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
18.2%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for no gain to the UthSt 16Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
18.0%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Carson TerrellSimilar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
17.4%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q3 10:08
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+2
17.4%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 45 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 2 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
15.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-1
15.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-9
15.6%
Jake Haener sacked by Marcus Moore for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 15
OWN 36
-5
17.2%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 20
OWN 31
0
17.6%
Cade Fuller punt for 42 yds, downed at the UthSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
18.1%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Justin McGriff, broken up by Bralyn LuxSimilar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-4
17.8%
Jaylen Warren run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 23Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 14
OWN 23
-9
17.0%
Jason Shelley run for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 14Similar
Q3 7:11
4TH & 23
OWN 14
0
17.0%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Arron Mosby at the UthSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 35 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
14.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 14 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
14.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 10 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
14.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+4
14.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 4 yds Keric Wheatfall fumbled, forced by AJ Vongphachanh, recovered by UthSt Elijah SheltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
16.4%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 1 yd to the UthSt 15Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+6
16.2%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 6 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+4
15.9%
Jason Shelley run for 4 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
16.6%
Jason Shelley sacked by Malachi Langley and Isaiah Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 22Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+8
16.3%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 8 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
16.2%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Justin McGriff, broken up by Bralyn LuxSimilar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
15.8%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4088% → 88%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
11.7%
Jake Haener run for no gain to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
11.4%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Rory HansonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+6
11.6%
Jake Haener run for 6 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
12.3%
Cade Fuller punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
14.3%
Jaylen Warren run for 3 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 13
0
14.1%
Jaylen Warren run for no gain to the UthSt 13Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 7
OWN 13
-8
13.5%
Jason Shelley sacked by Alex Dumais for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 15
OWN 5
-6
13.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 63 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 10 yds · 1:1489% → 90%
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
10.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
10.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
10.4%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+5
9.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-5
8.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Dante Adkins Jr.) to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 11
OWN 36
-10
9.4%
HAENER, Jake rush for 10 yards to the FS46, out-of-bounds (SHELTON, Elijah), PENALTY FS holding 10 yards to the FS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+10
9.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 10 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 10:46
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
9.7%
Cade Fuller punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 27FUMBLE
4 plays · 49 yds · 0:0011% → 14%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
11.3%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 10 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+38
11.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 38 yds to the UTAHST 29 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
14.6%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
14.2%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 28 Devonta'e Henry-Cole fumbled, forced by David Perales, recovered by FrsSt David PeralesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 28TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 3:1293% → 99%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
7.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-1
7.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+9
8.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 9 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
7.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 13 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
6.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
6.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+44
1.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 44 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 29DOWNS
20 plays · 65 yds · 2:502% → 2%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
2.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 11 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
2.3%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Justin McGriff, broken up by Wylan FreeSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-10
2.3%
SHELLEY, Jason rush for 8 yards to the USU44 (FREE, Wylan), PENALTY USU holding (SHAW, Karter) 10 yards to the USU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 20
OWN 26
0
2.2%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+10
2.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 10 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+14
2.2%
SHELLEY, Jason pass incomplete to THOMPKINS, D. (POPE, Zane), PENALTY FS pass interference (POPE, Zane) 14 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
50
0
2.4%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Savon ScarverSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
50
+9
2.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jaylen Warren for 9 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
2.7%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+15
2.5%
Jason Shelley run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
2.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 9 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 1
OPP 17
0
2.2%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+15
2.2%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 15 yds to the FrsSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
2.3%
SHELLEY, Jason pass incomplete to TERRELL, Carson, PENALTY USU illegal formation 5 yards to the FS7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.2%
Jason Shelley sacked by David Perales for 0 yards to the FrsSt 7Similar
Q4 2:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.2%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Carson TerrellSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
2.1%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Savon Scarver UTAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 2:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
1.9%
Jason Shelley sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
0.8%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-1
0.8%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:41
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 71 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined
-7.9
TD · Q2 0:34
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
-7.3
TD · Q4 5:21
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 44 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
-5.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com