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CSU

Colorado State 21 at Boise State 52

BOIS
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2020 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:24 · Jonah Dalmas punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense+36.2Pregame prior+3.4Score differential+28.1Garbage-time factor+12.9Blowout margin+11.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+12.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:14: Robert Liss 28 yd FG RETURNED , Kekaula Kaniho return for 91 yds for a TD — BOIS win probability +4.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:40: P. O'Brien run for 1 yd for a TD, (R. Liss KICK) — CSU win probability +5.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:12: A. Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +6.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:48: Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:44: A'Jon Vivens run for 17 yds for a TD, (Robert Liss KICK) — CSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 5%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 14:08CSU 4th & 13 at CSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:17CSU 4th & 5 at CSU 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:00CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:37CSU 4th & 8 at CSU 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:33BOIS 4th & 19 at BOIS 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−1.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:14CSU 4th & 9 at BOIS 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:20CSU 4th & 4 at BOIS 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    9.6%−0.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    10.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:48BOIS 4th & 1 at CSU 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:23CSU 4th & 9 at CSU 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:04BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 28, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:52BOIS 4th & 5 at CSU 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    95.0%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:06CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 24, down 24
    Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:26CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 19, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:27BOIS 4th & 6 at BOIS 46, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:48CSU 4th & 1 at CSU 21, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:12BOIS 4th & 19 at CSU 43, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:29CSU 4th & 16 at CSU 14, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:24BOIS 4th & 7 at CSU 41, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:29CSU 4th & 11 at CSU 24, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:50BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 31, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    100.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:05CSU 4th & 6 at BOIS 36, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:06BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:14BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:40CSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:12BOIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:48BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:01CSU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:44CSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:21BOIS Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT TD
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4017% → 17%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
83.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q1 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-3
83.5%
Dante Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 13
OWN 15
0
83.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
83.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Avery Williams blocked by Avery Williams for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4317% → 17%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
83.5%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 11Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+1
83.5%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 1 yd to the ColSt 12Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+1
83.5%
Patrick O'Brien run for 1 yd to the ColSt 13Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 5
OWN 13
+44
83.5%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 46 yds , Kekaula Kaniho returns for 44 yds to the ColSt 15 Kekaula Kaniho fumbled, recovered by ColStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1417% → 17%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
83.4%
A'Jon Vivens run for no gain to the ColSt 15Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
83.3%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
83.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:00
4TH & 6
OWN 19
+10
83.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 39 yds , Avery Williams returns for 10 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
12 plays · 48 yds · 4:4984% → 86%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
83.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+6
83.6%
CT Thomas run for 6 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+5
83.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for 5 yds to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
83.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 12 yds to the ColSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
83.5%
Bachmeier, Hank pass complete to Shakir, Khalil for 4 yards to the COLOST18, PENALTY BOISEST holding (Osuji, Uzoma) 10 yards to the COLOST32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 20
OPP 32
0
83.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q1 8:12
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+14
83.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 14 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+7
83.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Maclaine Griffin for 7 yds to the ColSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
83.5%
Khalil Shakir run for 2 yds to the ColSt 9Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-1
83.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 10Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+5
83.3%
COLORADO ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Devin Phillips) to the ColSt 5Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+5
85.6%
H. Bachmeier pass,to R. Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (J. Dalmas KICK), (J. Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2215% → 15%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.8%
Dante Wright run for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
84.7%
Marcus McElroy Jr. run for 2 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
84.8%
Patrick O'Brien run for no gain to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
84.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
85.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 36 yds, downed at the BoiSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:5786% → 85%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
85.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q1 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
85.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 27
-9
85.4%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Scott Patchan for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 19
OWN 18
0
85.2%
Jonah Dalmas punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:5215% → 11%
Q1 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
84.9%
Dante Wright run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+34
84.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 34 yds to the BoiSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
84.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-2
84.2%
Dante Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 10Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
84.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+91
89.3%
Robert Liss 28 yd FG RETURNED , Kekaula Kaniho return for 91 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:0010% → 16%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
89.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to E.J. Scott for 4 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+21
89.7%
Christian Hunter run for 21 yds to the ColSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
89.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+2
89.6%
Christian Hunter run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 49Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+4
89.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 4 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q2 14:20
4TH & 4
OPP 45
+6
89.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+38
89.5%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 38 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.7%
P. O'Brien run for 1 yd for a TD, (R. Liss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 4:1986% → 94%
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-6
85.6%
Hank Bachmeier run for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q2 13:01
2ND & 16
OWN 9
0
85.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 16
OWN 9
+19
85.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 19 yds to the BoiSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
85.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Stefan Cobbs for 9 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+28
86.2%
Khalil Shakir run for 28 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
86.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 1 yd to the ColSt 34Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-4
86.8%
Hank Bachmeier run for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 38Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+33
86.4%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 33 yds to the ColSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
86.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.6%
A. Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 10INT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:108% → 8%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+30
92.0%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 30 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
91.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q2 8:23
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
91.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Dante Wright for 1 yd to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-21
91.6%
Patrick O'Brien pass intercepted JL Skinner return for 21 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11TD
11 plays · 36 yds · 3:5894% → 98%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
93.8%
Tyler Crowe run for 1 yd to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
94.0%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Riley SmithSimilar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-5
93.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Khalil Shakir) to the ColSt 40Similar
Q2 7:14
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+19
93.7%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 19 yds to the ColSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
94.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 7 yds to the ColSt 14Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 3
OPP 14
-2
94.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 16Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+11
94.1%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 11 yds to the ColSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
94.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the ColSt 2Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
94.4%
Riley Smith run for 1 yd to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 4:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
94.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q2 3:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 12PUNT TD
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:121% → 1%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
98.8%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 20Similar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+8
97.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 8 yds to the ColSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
98.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for 5 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 1:39
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-4
98.0%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Shane Irwin for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 29 Patrick O'Brien fumbled, recovered by ColStSimilar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+20
98.8%
Ryan Stonehouse punt blocked by Avery Williams blocked by Avery Williams DJ Schramm return for 20 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13END OF HALF
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:591% → 1%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
98.7%
Christian Hunter run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
98.7%
Patrick O'Brien run for 8 yds to the ColSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+15
98.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
50
0
98.7%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
50
-6
98.7%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Shane Irwin for a loss of 6 yards to the ColSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:4499% → 99%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
98.8%
Andrew Van Buren run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 38Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 3
OWN 38
-5
98.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Crabtree) to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Billy BowensSimilar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-5
99.1%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Dequan Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+6
99.1%
Jonah Dalmas punt for 42 yds , Dante Wright returns for 6 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:561% → 1%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 12:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
99.2%
A'Jon Vivens run for 21 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
99.1%
A'Jon Vivens run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
99.1%
Todd Centeio run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
99.1%
Christian Hunter run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
99.2%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Dante WrightSimilar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+21
99.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 21 yds for a TD, (Robert Liss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
95.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for 17 yds for a TD, (Robert Liss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 1:4797% → 97%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+39
96.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 39 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
96.8%
Khalil Shakir run for 5 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
97.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Andrew Van BurenSimilar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 21
0
97.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for no gain to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 8:52
4TH & 5
OPP 21
+38
97.0%
Jonah Dalmas 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:343% → 3%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
96.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 4 yds to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+3
97.0%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 22Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+2
97.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 24Similar
Q3 7:06
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+33
97.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 42 yds , Avery Williams returns for 33 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:4098% → 100%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
97.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Maclaine Griffin for 5 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-4
97.9%
Hank Bachmeier sacked by Devin Phillips for a loss of 4 yards to the ColSt 32Similar
Q3 5:31
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+15
97.8%
Bachmeier, Hank pass incomplete to Shakir, Khalil, PENALTY COLOST pass interference (Ajayi, Rashad) 15 yards to the COLOST17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.7%
Khalil Shakir rush for 16 yards to the ColSt 1, fumbled, recovered by Nick Crabtree in the endzone for a TOUCHDOWN (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -6 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.6%
COLORADO ST Penalty, False Start (Trey McBride) to the ColSt 20Similar
Q3 5:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-1
99.6%
Todd Centeio sacked by Sam Whitney for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-1
99.7%
Christian Hunter run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 18Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+1
99.8%
Christian Hunter run for 1 yd to the ColSt 19Similar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+7
99.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 46 yds , Avery Williams returns for 7 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.8%
Danny Smith run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-5
99.8%
BOISE ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+12
99.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 12 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 1:33
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-5
99.8%
Smith, Danny rush for 3 yards to the COLOST46, PENALTY BOISEST illegal formation 5 yards to the BOISEST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:27
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Jonah Dalmas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Dante Wright at the ColSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
99.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 6 yds to the ColSt 18Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+3
99.9%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 21Similar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the ColSt 21Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 34 yds, downed at the BoiSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 12 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.8%
Danny Smith run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q4 13:59
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+9
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 9 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Danny Smith run for 5 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Danny Smith run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the ColSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the ColSt 34Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-15
99.9%
BOISE ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the ColSt 49Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 25
OPP 49
+6
99.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 6 yds to the ColSt 43Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 19
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Hank Bachmeier pass incomplete to Andrew Van BurenSimilar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 19
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Jonah Dalmas punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:290% → 0%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
100.0%
Centeio, Todd pass complete to McBride, Trey for 40 yards to the BOISEST40, PENALTY COLOST ineligible downfield on pass (McBride, Trey) 5 yards to the COLOST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
100.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for no gain to the ColSt 15Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-1
100.0%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 14Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
100.0%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Brian PolendeySimilar
Q4 8:29
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+47
100.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 47 yds , Avery Williams returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
99.9%
Danny Smith run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+13
99.9%
Danny Smith run for 13 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Danny Smith run for 2 yds to the ColSt 42Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Danny Smith run for 1 yd to the ColSt 41Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to Maclaine GriffinSimilar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Jonah Dalmas punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:490% → 0%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 24Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Nate Craig-MyersSimilar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+12
100.0%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 56 yds , Avery Williams returns for 12 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:33100% → 100%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
100.0%
Danny Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 3:43
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Danny Smith run for no gain to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to Maclaine GriffinSimilar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 11
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Keola Downing punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ColSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:410% → 0%
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
100.0%
Todd Centeio run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+15
100.0%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 15 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
100.0%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to E.J. ScottSimilar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
100.0%
Christian Hunter run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
100.0%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to E.J. ScottSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:33100% → 100%
Q4 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:12
A. Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD, (J. Dalmas KICK)
+6.7
TD · Q2 13:40
P. O'Brien run for 1 yd for a TD, (R. Liss KICK)
-5.8
TD · Q1 1:14
Robert Liss 28 yd FG RETURNED , Kekaula Kaniho return for 91 yds for a TD
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com