Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 40 at UNLV 27

UNLV
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:02 · Cade Fuller punt for 40 yds, downed at the UNLV 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior−19.6Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:12: Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 43 yds for a TD UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 8 (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +10.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:25: Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 33 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +13.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:34: Ronnie Rivers run for 16 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +8.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:41: Max Gilliam run for 71 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK) — UNLV win probability +19.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:55: Ronnie Rivers run for 10 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +17.7 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 7 of 8FRES made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:10UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 45, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:52UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.5%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:39UNLV 4th & 5 at FRES 11, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:25UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.7%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:06FRES 4th & 15 at FRES 41, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:14UNLV 4th & 16 at UNLV 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−1.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:35UNLV 4th & 3 at FRES 10, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.8%−0.7
    88% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−7.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:29FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:30FRES 4th & 2 at UNLV 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.3%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    57.4%−1.9
    85% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−14.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:49UNLV 4th & 16 at UNLV 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%−4.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:20FRES 4th & 11 at UNLV 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:14FRES 4th & 7 at UNLV 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−8.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:09UNLV 4th & 17 at UNLV 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:51FRES 4th & 9 at UNLV 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    89.2%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:20FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:11UNLV Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:34FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:12UNLV Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:25FRES Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:34FRES Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:41UNLV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:55FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FRESDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.6%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
27.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
27.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Chris Coleman for 4 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
27.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+5
27.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 5 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
27.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
27.6%
Cade Fuller punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UNLV 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
28.5%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 36Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
28.5%
Max Gilliam pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
28.5%
Max Gilliam pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
28.4%
Charlton Butt punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 3TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 2:1671% → 71%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
28.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 19Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+14
28.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 14 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
28.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 8 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+5
28.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
28.8%
Jake Haener run for 54 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 4:0529% → 33%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
29.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 4 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+11
29.2%
Charles Williams run for 11 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
29.4%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 45Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
29.5%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 46Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+8
29.4%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 8 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
29.6%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
29.6%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Courtney Reese for 4 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+8
29.5%
Courtney Reese run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+25
29.8%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 25 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
29.8%
Max Gilliam run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
29.8%
Max Gilliam pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
33.2%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0067% → 68%
Q1 6:02
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+28
32.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 28 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
32.4%
Jake Haener sacked by Adam Plant Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
32.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
31.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
31.5%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-2
31.6%
Jake Haener sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
32.2%
Cade Fuller punt for 40 yds, downed at the UNLV 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6FG
18 plays · 74 yds · 6:1334% → 39%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
34.1%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 16Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
34.0%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+15
33.6%
Max Gilliam run for 15 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
34.4%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 32Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+1
34.3%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 33Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+7
33.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Noah Bean for 7 yds to the UNLV 40Similar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+5
34.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Steve Jenkins for 5 yds to the UNLV 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
35.3%
Max Gilliam sacked by Kwami Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+8
35.9%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 8 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+14
36.2%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr. for 14 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
37.3%
Max Gilliam run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
37.6%
Max Gilliam pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
37.5%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+8
37.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 8 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
37.6%
Charles Williams run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 10
-1
37.6%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
37.0%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q2 11:39
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
39.1%
Daniel Gutierrez 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 7TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:5862% → 69%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
37.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
38.4%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jamal Glaspie for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q2 11:32
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+15
38.1%
WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass incomplete to KELLY, Josh, PENALTY UNLV roughing passer (WINDMON,Jacoby) 15 yards to the FS47, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+35
36.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 35 yds to the UNLV 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
35.3%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Raymond Pauwels Jr. for 12 yds to the UNLV 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
30.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:1334% → 46%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
34.1%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 35Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
35.0%
Kyle Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+1
35.1%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 40Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+4
34.4%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
35.6%
Max Gilliam run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 4
50
+2
36.1%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+5
35.7%
Charles Williams run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
46.2%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Tyleek Collins for 43 yds for a TD UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 8 (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
43.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+10
44.1%
Jalen Cropper run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
43.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
41.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-3
41.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Chris Coleman for 12 yds to the UNLV 39 FRESNO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chris Coleman) to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
41.6%
Jake Haener sacked by Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 15 yards to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 25
OWN 31
-9
44.1%
Jake Haener sacked by Adam Plant Jr. and Jacoby Windmon for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 34
OWN 22
+19
45.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 19 yds to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+13
45.1%
Cade Fuller punt for 41 yds , Tyleek Collins returns for 13 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:4047% → 47%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
46.8%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 30Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
46.3%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Charles WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:54
3RD & 11
OWN 30
-5
45.3%
Max Gilliam sacked by Kevin Atkins for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 25Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 16
OWN 25
0
46.8%
Charlton Butt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 0:4251% → 69%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
49.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 7 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+5
47.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 5 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
47.5%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Ronnie Rivers, broken up by Jacoby WindmonSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+18
48.3%
Jake Haener run for 18 yds to the UNLV 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
30.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 33 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
34.7%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Charles Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 18Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+6
34.5%
Max Gilliam run for 6 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
36.6%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
36.3%
Max Gilliam sacked by David Perales for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 25 Max Gilliam fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Kurtis Brown , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the UNLV 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:3969% → 76%
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
31.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
31.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 9 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+16
23.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 16 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 6:3324% → 30%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
23.7%
Charles Williams run for 7 yds to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 25
-1
24.2%
Charles Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 24Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+29
23.2%
Max Gilliam run for 29 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
25.9%
Courtney Reese run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+5
26.0%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+7
25.8%
Max Gilliam run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
27.1%
WILLIAMS,C. rush for 3 yards to the FS30 (HOUSTON, Justin;LANGLEY, M.), PENALTY FS substitution infraction 5 yards to the FS28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 5
OPP 28
0
27.1%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
27.1%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+10
25.8%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Kyle Williams for 10 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
27.1%
REESE,Courtney rush for 9 yards to the FS8 (LUX, Bralyn), PENALTY UNLV holding (FAUTANU,Leif) 10 yards to the FS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 20
OPP 27
+10
26.6%
Max Gilliam run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
27.1%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Charles Williams for 7 yds to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
25.9%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
30.3%
Daniel Gutierrez 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
26.3%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Erik BrooksSimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
26.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+3
26.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
25.7%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
26.5%
Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
25.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+5
27.0%
Cade Fuller punt for 43 yds , Jacob Gasser returns for 5 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 17TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:1728% → 48%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
28.4%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q3 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+71
47.6%
Max Gilliam run for 71 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 3:3556% → 81%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
44.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+5
44.4%
WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass incomplete to GLASPIE, Jamal, PENALTY UNLV offside (UASIKE,Kolo) 5 yards to the FS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+19
43.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
40.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+18
41.7%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Josh Kelly for 18 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
39.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+11
38.0%
Ronnie Rivers run for 11 yds to the UNLV 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
38.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+10
39.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jordan Mims for 10 yds to the UNLV 16Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+3
38.0%
Ben Wooldridge run for 3 yds to the UNLV 13Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 13
0
39.7%
Jordan Mims run for no gain to the UNLV 13Similar
Q3 3:30
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+3
41.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the UNLV 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
19.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 10 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
24.4%
UNLV Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+4
24.2%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the UNLV 19Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-5
24.0%
Max Gilliam sacked by Sherwin King Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
22.8%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
22.1%
Charlton Butt punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
18.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
18.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+10
18.8%
Ben Wooldridge run for 10 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
17.9%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Ronnie Rivers, broken up by Jacoby WindmonSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-1
18.0%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 43Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 11
OPP 43
0
18.6%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
20.6%
Cade Fuller punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21INT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.4%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
23.3%
Charles Williams run for no gain to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+12
21.7%
Max Gilliam run for 12 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
24.3%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Steve Jenkins, broken up by Wylan FreeSimilar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-5
23.9%
Max Gilliam sacked by Malachi Langley for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 27Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 15
OWN 27
-15
21.8%
Max Gilliam pass intercepted Chris Gaston return for 15 yds to the UNLV 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22FG
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:4386% → 88%
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
14.1%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Josh KellySimilar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+7
14.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 8:57
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+1
14.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the UNLV 13Similar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 2
OPP 13
-5
17.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Quireo Woodley) to the UNLV 18Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
12.0%
Cesar Silva 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
12.2%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
12.1%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Giovanni Fauolo Sr.Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 9
OWN 28
-8
11.2%
Max Gilliam sacked by Jacob Hollins for a loss of 8 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 17
OWN 20
0
10.7%
Charlton Butt punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:5691% → 98%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
8.8%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 8 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
8.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
50
+35
8.5%
Jake Haener run for 35 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
8.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 5:47
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+1
8.2%
Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 9
OPP 14
+5
5.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 5 yds to the UNLV 9Similar
Q4 3:02
4TH & 4
OPP 9
-5
5.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Dontae Bull) to the UNLV 14Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
1.6%
Cesar Silva 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
3.5%
Max Gilliam pass complete to Zyell Griffin for 14 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
3.7%
Max Gilliam pass incomplete to Steve JenkinsSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-3
3.7%
Max Gilliam pass intercepted Chris Gaston return for 3 yds to the UNLV 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
1.4%
Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-3
1.4%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 47 Jordan Mims fumbled, recovered by UNLV Tavis MalakiusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:41
Max Gilliam run for 71 yds for a TD (Daniel Gutierrez KICK)
+19.2
TD · Q4 14:55
Ronnie Rivers run for 10 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
-17.7
TD · Q2 1:25
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 33 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com