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BYU

BYU 51 at Boise State 17

BOIS
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2020 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:00 · Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 22 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 85Home team on offense−17.9Score differential−6.9Garbage-time factor−3.2Pregame prior−5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 3:27: Jonah Dalmas 39 yd FG GOOD — BOIS win probability +2.5 pts (now 40%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 14:54: Jake Oldroyd 47 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +2.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:00: Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd PAT BLOCKED) — BYU win probability +6.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:48: Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +9.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:57: Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 20 yds for a TD, (Zach Wilson pass to Neil Pau'u for Two-Point Conversion) — BYU win probability +4.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 10BYU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:07BOIS 4th & 7 at BYU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    40.7%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:00BOIS 4th & 3 at BYU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−0.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:27BOIS 4th & 8 at BYU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    36.7%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54BYU 4th & 8 at BOIS 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    57.6%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:16BOIS 4th & 8 at BOIS 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.0%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:21BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:30BYU 4th & 4 at BOIS 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.6%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:26BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00BYU 4th & 5 at BOIS 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    74.4%−1.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:18BOIS 4th & 11 at BOIS 40, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:35BYU 4th & 2 at BOIS 25, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    91.9%−1.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−7.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:02BOIS 4th & 9 at BOIS 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:28BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 37, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:15BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 28, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:56BYU 4th & 3 at BYU 35, up 34
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:56BOIS 4th & 7 at BOIS 31, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BYU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 11:24BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:00BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:48BYU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:57BYU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:26BYU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:27BYU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:17BOIS Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:07BOIS Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:59BYU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:4839% → 40%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
38.6%
Jack Sears pass complete to John Bates for 28 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
38.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 5 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+2
39.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 13:00
3RD & 3
OPP 40
-9
39.5%
Jack Sears sacked by Gabe Summers for a loss of 9 yards to the BYU 49Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 12
OPP 49
+5
39.4%
BYU Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the BYU 44Similar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
39.6%
Gavin Wale punt for 39 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for no gain to the BYU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 95 yds · 0:3660% → 62%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+9
39.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 9 yds to the BYU 14Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 1
OWN 14
+86
38.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 86 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3FG
19 plays · 53 yds · 7:5339% → 40%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
38.5%
Jack Sears pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 4 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
38.5%
Jack Sears pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 4 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
38.7%
Jack Sears pass complete to John Bates for 5 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
38.8%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
38.8%
Jack Sears run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
38.8%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
38.6%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 3 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+4
38.5%
Cade Fennegan run for 4 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q1 6:00
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+4
38.3%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 4 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
39.0%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+15
38.9%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Riley Smith for 15 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
39.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
39.5%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
38.9%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q1 3:27
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
40.3%
Jonah Dalmas 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 3:2660% → 64%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
39.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
40.0%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the BYU 20Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 8
OWN 20
+14
40.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 14 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
39.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 11 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
39.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
38.6%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
38.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 12 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
38.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+2
38.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
38.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Masen WakeSimilar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
35.9%
Jake Oldroyd 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2437% → 36%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
36.9%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 8 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 2
OWN 31
-6
37.7%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Khalil Shakir for a loss of 6 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
36.2%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+8
36.0%
Gavin Wale punt for 40 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 8 yds to the BYU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4965% → 65%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
35.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 42Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+2
35.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+4
35.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
35.5%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 45 yds, downed at the BoiSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7INT
9 plays · 25 yds · 4:5636% → 34%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
36.1%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 11Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+2
36.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+14
35.6%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 14 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
36.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+10
36.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
36.5%
Cade Fennegan run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q2 7:16
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-15
36.4%
Fennegan, Cade pass complete to Shakir, Khalil for 13 yards to the BYU45, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Griffin, Maclaine) 15 yards to the BOISEST27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 23
OWN 27
+5
34.5%
Cade Fennegan run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 18
OWN 32
-6
33.9%
Cade Fennegan pass intercepted Caleb Christensen return for 6 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:3069% → 67%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
31.5%
Zach Wilson sacked by Sam Whitney for a loss of 3 yards to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+3
31.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+6
31.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 4
OPP 33
-8
32.6%
Zach Wilson sacked by Scott Matlock for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4936% → 35%
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
36.3%
Khalil Shakir run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-5
36.6%
Fennegan, Cade pass complete to Bates, John for 5 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY BOISEST illegal shift (Bates, John) 5 yards to the BOISEST40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+8
35.1%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Riley Smith for 8 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
36.1%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:26
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
34.9%
Gavin Wale punt for 48 yds, downed at the BYU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 96 yds · 1:2068% → 79%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+18
32.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 18 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
31.9%
Zach Wilson run for 12 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
30.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 4 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
28.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 10 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
28.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+15
28.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 15 yds to the BoiSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+13
28.0%
Wilson, Zach pass incomplete to Milne, Dax, PENALTY BOISEST pass interference (Reed, Markel) 13 yards to the BOISEST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
27.8%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
21.0%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
28.0%
Cade Fennegan run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 35 Cade Fennegan fumbled, forced by Khyiris Tonga, recovered by BYU Keenan PiliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:3879% → 78%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-11
20.9%
Zach Wilson sacked by Scott Matlock and Scale Igiehon for a loss of 11 yards to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 21
OPP 46
0
22.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Gunner RomneySimilar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 21
OPP 46
+16
22.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 16 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+22
22.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 22 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:0775% → 88%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
25.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 13Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 11
OWN 13
+6
24.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 6 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+38
24.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 38 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+38
21.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 38 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
12.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:2215% → 11%
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.7%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 2 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
14.4%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Riley Smith for 3 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
13.1%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 11 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
14.0%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 42Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-2
14.3%
Cade Fennegan sacked by Uriah Leiataua for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
11.4%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to Stefan CobbsSimilar
Q3 9:18
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
11.3%
Gavin Wale punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:1391% → 97%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+39
8.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 39 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Masen WakeSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
7.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+3
6.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+5
7.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 5 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
2.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 20 yds for a TD, (Zach Wilson pass to Neil Pau'u for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 2:483% → 2%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
2.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
2.2%
Andy Peters pass complete to CT Thomas for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
2.1%
Andy Peters pass complete to CT Thomas for 14 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
2.1%
Andy Peters pass incomplete to Khalil Shakir BOISE ST Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
1.9%
Andy Peters run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
1.8%
Andy Peters pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
1.8%
Gavin Wale punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 2:2998% → 99%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
2.1%
Zach Wilson run for 5 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+7
2.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
2.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 28 yds to the BOISEST 32 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Markel Reed) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
2.1%
Zach Wilson run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+9
2.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
1.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
0.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 20 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 1:521% → 0%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.5%
Andy Peters pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 1 yd to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
0.4%
Andy Peters pass complete to Riley Smith for 8 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
0.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
0.4%
Andrew Van Buren run for no gain to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 14:36
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
0.4%
Andy Peters pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q4 14:33
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
0.4%
Andy Peters pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q4 14:28
4TH & 10
OWN 37
+7
0.4%
TEAM punt blocked by Khyiris Tonga blocked by Khyiris Tonga Khyiris Tonga return for 7 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:5399% → 100%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
0.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q4 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+6
0.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
0.5%
Chris Jackson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 16Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+15
0.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 15 yds to the BoiSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
0.4%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.3%
Neil Pau'u run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:050% → 0%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.2%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to Riley SmithSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
0.2%
Fennegan, Cade pass incomplete, PENALTY BYU pass interference (Mandell, D'Angelo) 8 yards to the BOISEST28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BOISEST.Similar
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
0.2%
Cade Fennegan run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
0.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+14
0.2%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to CT Thomas for 14 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.2%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to CT ThomasSimilar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+52
0.2%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 52 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21TD
3 plays · 51 yds · 0:100% → 0%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
0.2%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (Khyiris Tonga) to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 5
OPP 46
+46
0.3%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 46 yds for a TD, (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:01100% → 100%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
0.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+42
0.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 42 yds to the BoiSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.2%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Riley Smith for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
0.1%
Cade Fennegan sacked by Khyiris Tonga and Bracken El-Bakri for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+43
0.1%
Gavin Wale punt for 43 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
0.2%
Sione Finau run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+6
0.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 4:40
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+3
0.2%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BoiSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
0.1%
Cade Fennegan pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 3 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Cade Fennegan pass incomplete to Khalil ShakirSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Cade Fennegan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:56
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+16
0.1%
Gavin Wale punt for 45 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 16 yds to the BYU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · 16 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q4 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
0.1%
Sione Finau run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 36Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+14
0.1%
Chris Jackson run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
50
+4
0.1%
Kavika Fonua run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+2
0.1%
Kavika Fonua run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:48
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
-9.5
TD · Q2 1:00
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Jake Oldroyd PAT BLOCKED)
-6.9
TD · Q3 6:57
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 20 yds for a TD, (Zach Wilson pass to Neil Pau'u for Two-Point Conversion)
-4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com