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SDSU

San Diego State 38 at Utah State 7

USU
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadSDSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreSDSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:44 · Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 38 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 7 yds to the SDSt 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense−1.6Pregame prior−24.4Score differential−0.6Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 8:32: Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 13 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST down — SDSU win probability +3.4 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 37 yds for a TD (Nels Haltom KICK) — USU win probability +9.8 pts (now 32%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:56: Greg Bell run for 6 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:33: Chance Bell run for 27 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:11: Carson Baker pass complete to Greg Bell for 29 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK) — SDSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SDSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7SDSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00USU 4th & 11 at USU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27SDSU 4th & 8 at USU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:27USU 4th & 5 at USU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:44USU 4th & 3 at USU 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:48SDSU 4th & 9 at USU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:34SDSU 4th & 4 at USU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−1.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:29USU 4th & 3 at USU 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:10SDSU 4th & 8 at USU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:50USU 4th & 5 at USU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:33SDSU 4th & 1 at USU 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    75.1%−2.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−8.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:33USU 4th & 9 at USU 26, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00SDSU 4th & 1 at USU 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−2.0
    54% to make
    Punt
    89.4%−3.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:11USU 4th & 19 at SDSU 36, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    2.6%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:15SDSU 4th & 12 at SDSU 42, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1SDSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 3:44SDSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:00USU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:56SDSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:33SDSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:11SDSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 5:14SDSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.7%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
21.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Broc Lane for 4 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
21.7%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 1 yd to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
21.7%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
21.7%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for no gain to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
21.7%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Broc LaneSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
21.7%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:1277% → 75%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
23.1%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 16 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
23.1%
Carson Baker pass complete to BJ Busbee for 9 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+3
23.0%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 3 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
23.0%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the UthSt 20Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+2
23.0%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 2 yds to the UthSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
23.0%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the UthSt 16Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
23.0%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
23.1%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Jesse MatthewsSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+33
24.7%
Matt Araiza 33 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Hale Motu'apuaka N/A return for no gain to the UthSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
24.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Broc Lane for 5 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
25.0%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-4
24.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to John Gentry for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 25Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 5
OWN 25
+27
24.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 42 yds, downed at the UTAHST 33 UTAH ST Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the SDSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:3475% → 77%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
25.3%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
25.2%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+12
25.3%
BAKER, Carson pass incomplete to DEDEAUX, Ethan (BOND, Shaq), PENALTY USU pass interference (BOND, Shaq) 12 yards to the USU36, 1ST DOWN SDSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
25.2%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 11 yds to the UthSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
25.0%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jordan Byrd for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 27Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+12
25.1%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 12 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
23.2%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 15 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
24.4%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Derek Wright for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
24.9%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 4 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
24.7%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
24.9%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 5 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
25.0%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Devonta'e Henry-ColeSimilar
Q1 3:44
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+7
24.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 38 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for 7 yds to the SDSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 6MISSED FG
14 plays · 48 yds · 4:5776% → 76%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
24.4%
Greg Bell run for 4 yds to the SDSt 28Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+9
24.1%
Carson Baker pass complete to TJ Sullivan for 9 yds to the SDSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
24.0%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
24.1%
Kaegun Williams run for 11 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
23.6%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+9
23.8%
Carson Baker pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 9 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
23.7%
Kaegun Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+10
23.7%
Carson Baker pass complete to Jesse Matthews for 10 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
23.4%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
23.2%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Shaq BondSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
23.4%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the UthSt 28Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
23.6%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Zahodri JacksonSimilar
Q2 11:48
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
24.5%
Matt Araiza 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7INT
11 plays · 27 yds · 1:4325% → 27%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
25.0%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 8 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+1
25.9%
Elelyon Noa run for 1 yd to the UthSt 37Similar
Q2 11:48
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
25.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
25.8%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Deven ThompkinsSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
25.7%
Jason Shelley run for 4 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
25.8%
SHELLEY, Jason pass incomplete to SCARVER, Savon (HALL, Darren), PENALTY SDSU offside 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 1
50
+2
26.7%
Jason Shelley run for 2 yds to the SDSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
26.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Savon Scarver for 3 yds to the SDSt 45Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
26.9%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q2 10:05
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-8
26.7%
Jason Shelley pass intercepted Seyddrick Lakalaka return for 8 yds to the SDSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 8DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5877% → 77%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
23.3%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 13 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
23.0%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
22.7%
Carson Baker pass complete to Greg Bell for no gain to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+3
23.2%
Carson Baker run for 3 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
23.2%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
24.9%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 3 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 6:29
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+4
24.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Savon Scarver for 4 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q2 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
25.4%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Deven Thompkins, broken up by Tayler HawkinsSimilar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
24.6%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 49 yds , Jordan Byrd returns for no gain to the SDSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 10FG
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:1776% → 79%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
24.4%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the SDSt 14Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+17
24.6%
Greg Bell run for 17 yds to the SDSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
23.5%
Greg Bell run for 9 yds to the SDSt 40Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+6
22.7%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds to the SDSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+30
22.6%
Chance Bell run for 30 yds to the UthSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
21.9%
Carson Baker run for 5 yds to the UthSt 19Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
21.9%
Carson Baker pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+6
22.2%
Chance Bell run for 6 yds to the UthSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
21.9%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 14Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
22.1%
Carson Baker pass incomplete to Jesse Matthews, broken up by Zahodri JacksonSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+3
22.4%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q2 1:10
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
20.7%
Matt Araiza 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 1:0121% → 32%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
20.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 3 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+8
20.9%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 8 yds to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
21.6%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 7 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 3
OWN 45
0
21.9%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete, broken up by Cameron ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+14
21.3%
Jason Shelley run for 14 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
22.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
22.5%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Devonta'e Henry-Cole for 4 yds to the SDSt 37Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+37
32.3%
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 37 yds for a TD (Nels Haltom KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:0469% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
31.0%
Greg Bell run for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 22 SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SDSt 12Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 23
OWN 12
-3
31.2%
Carson Baker sacked by Cash Gilliam and Justus Te'i for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSt 9Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 26
OWN 9
+16
31.8%
Greg Bell run for 16 yds to the SDSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+16
32.2%
Carson Baker pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 16 yds to the SDSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+30
29.3%
Greg Bell run for 30 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
27.9%
Chance Bell run for 10 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
27.9%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+5
27.9%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+4
28.8%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.9%
Greg Bell run for 6 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
20.7%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 3 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-3
20.9%
Jason Shelley sacked by Cameron Thomas and Kahi Neves for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+5
19.6%
Jason Shelley run for 5 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 9:50
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
19.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SDSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:5479% → 90%
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
21.1%
Carson Baker run for 17 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
20.3%
Greg Bell run for 15 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
20.2%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q3 8:27
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+6
19.9%
Carson Baker pass complete to Kobe Smith for 6 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q3 8:27
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+1
20.6%
Carson Baker run for 1 yd to the UthSt 27Similar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+27
10.2%
Chance Bell run for 27 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.5%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for no gain to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.3%
Devonta'e Henry-Cole run for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
11.3%
Jason Shelley pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q3 5:33
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
11.3%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 56 yds, downed at the SDSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 16TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 5:5591% → 98%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
9.4%
Greg Bell run for 3 yds to the SDSt 21Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+1
9.4%
Carson Baker pass complete to Isaiah Richardson for 1 yd to the SDSt 22Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+27
9.7%
Greg Bell run for 27 yds to the SDSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
8.7%
Carson Baker run for 3 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
8.6%
Chance Bell run for 5 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
8.6%
Chance Bell run for 3 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
8.6%
Chance Bell run for 4 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
6.2%
Greg Bell run for 1 yd to the UthSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+4
6.4%
Carson Baker pass complete to Daniel Bellinger for 4 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
7.0%
Greg Bell run for 2 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
1.8%
Carson Baker pass complete to Greg Bell for 29 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
14 plays · 39 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
2.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 20Similar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+16
2.3%
Elelyon Noa run for 16 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
2.3%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Justin McGriff for 4 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
2.4%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 5 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
2.5%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+5
2.5%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
50
+4
2.5%
Elelyon Noa run for 4 yds to the SDSt 46Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
2.6%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Deven Thompkins, broken up by Seyddrick LakalakaSimilar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+19
2.5%
Andrew Peasley run for 19 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
2.9%
Elelyon Noa run for no gain to the SDSt 27Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-7
2.7%
Elelyon Noa run for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSt 36 Elelyon Noa fumbled, forced by Keshawn Banks, recovered by UthSt Elelyon NoaSimilar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 19
OPP 36
0
2.5%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Justin McGriffSimilar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 19
OPP 36
0
2.4%
Stephen Kotsanlee punt for 35 yds, downed at the SDSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 99 yds · 3:1899% → 100%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
1.3%
Chase Jasmin run for no gain to the SDSt 1Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+8
1.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 8 yds to the SDSt 9Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+8
1.4%
Chase Jasmin run for 8 yds to the SDSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
1.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 2 yds to the SDSt 19Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+8
1.3%
Chase Jasmin run for 8 yds to the SDSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
0.2%
Jordan Byrd run for 73 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19INT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
0.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 8 yds to the UthSt 30 for a 1ST down SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, personal foul (Segun Olubi) to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
0.2%
Andrew Peasley pass incomplete to Broc LaneSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
0.2%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Jordan Nathan for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 5
50
-17
0.2%
Andrew Peasley pass intercepted Cedarious Barfield return for 17 yds to the SDSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
0.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 4 yds to the SDSt 48Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 48
-10
0.2%
WILLIAMS, K. rush for 3 yards to the USU49 (MOTU'APUAKA, H.), PENALTY SDSU holding (CAPRA, Jacob) 10 yards to the SDSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+3
0.2%
Kaegun Williams run for 3 yds to the SDSt 41Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+6
0.2%
Leka Lotulelei run for 6 yds to the SDSt 47Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 7
OWN 47
-5
0.2%
SAN DIEGO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SDSt 42Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 12
OWN 42
0
0.2%
Tanner Kuljian punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
0.1%
Andrew Peasley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 2 yds to the UthSt 22Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+19
0.1%
John Gentry run for 19 yds to the UthSt 41 John Gentry fumbled, forced by Michael Shawcroft, recovered by SDSt Michael ShawcroftSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SDSUDrive 22END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 42Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 11
OPP 42
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:33
Chance Bell run for 27 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q2 0:00
Jason Shelley pass complete to Deven Thompkins for 37 yds for a TD (Nels Haltom KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q3 9:56
Greg Bell run for 6 yds for a TD (Matt Araiza KICK)
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com