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CSU

Colorado State 17 at Fresno State 38

FRES
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2020 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadCSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreCSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:58 · Cade Fuller punt for 51 yds, downed at the ColSt 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Home team on offense+13.4Score differential+6.1Pregame prior−4.4Garbage-time factor+4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:44: Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 13 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +5.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:57: Marcus Mcelroy Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Robert Liss KICK) — CSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:32: Ronnie Rivers run for 32 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +11.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:03: Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 15 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +14.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:43: Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK) — FRES win probability +10.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 8CSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:07CSU 4th & 3 at FRES 6, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%−0.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.0%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:02FRES 4th & 7 at FRES 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:00FRES 4th & 7 at CSU 17, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−0.4
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    42.9%−4.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:55CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:10FRES 4th & 2 at CSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%−1.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:24CSU 4th & 12 at FRES 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    38.6%−1.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:57CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:55FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 26, up 14
    Close callPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:03CSU 4th & 2 at CSU 49, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%−1.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:58FRES 4th & 19 at FRES 13, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:18CSU 4th & 7 at FRES 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    20.2%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:39FRES 4th & 1 at CSU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    81.6%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:35CSU 4th & 3 at FRES 3, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.7%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:53CSU 4th & 4 at FRES 12, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:16FRES 4th & 3 at FRES 20, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:56CSU 4th & 4 at FRES 30, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:44FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:57CSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:32FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:03FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:43FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:58FRES Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:41CSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
40.7%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+11
40.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to E.J. Scott for 11 yds to the ColSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
40.7%
Todd Centeio run for 3 yds to the ColSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-3
40.7%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the ColSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
40.7%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+8
40.7%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 58 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 8 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 6:2641% → 47%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
41.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
41.2%
HAENER, Jake pass incomplete to KELLY, Josh, PENALTY CSU offside defense 5 yards to the FS19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+15
41.3%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 15 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
41.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
41.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+8
41.2%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 8 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
41.4%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+4
41.4%
Jordan Mims run for 4 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+23
41.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 23 yds to the ColSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
41.6%
Jalen Cropper run for 9 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+2
41.6%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
41.6%
Jake Haener run for 2 yds to the ColSt 13Similar
Q1 6:44
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
47.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 13 yds for a TD, (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:3254% → 55%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
46.4%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 15 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
46.1%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr. run for 3 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
45.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+12
46.2%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Marcus Mcelroy Jr. for 12 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+35
45.5%
Todd Centeio run for 35 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
45.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+2
45.0%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
45.5%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to E.J. ScottSimilar
Q1 4:07
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
45.1%
Robert Liss 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
45.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
45.5%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+1
45.1%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & 7
OWN 24
0
44.8%
Cade Fuller punt for 57 yds, downed at the ColSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 3:2454% → 59%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
46.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 18 yds to the ColSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
45.6%
A'Jon Vivens run for 7 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+3
44.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 3 yds to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
44.9%
Todd Centeio pass complete to E.J. Scott for 9 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+1
44.6%
Todd Centeio run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
44.7%
COLORADO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+6
45.2%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 42Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+11
44.7%
Todd Centeio run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
44.9%
Todd Centeio run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
44.8%
A'Jon Vivens run for no gain to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
44.9%
McELROY, M. rush for 7 yards to the FS13 (DUMAIS, Alex), PENALTY FS offside defense (PERALES, David) 5 yards to the FS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
40.7%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr. run for 15 yds for a TD, (Robert Liss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 2:5043% → 47%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
43.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 24 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
44.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+9
45.2%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 9 yds to the ColSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
45.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+15
45.8%
WOOLDRIDGE, Ben pass incomplete, PENALTY CSU personal foul 15 yards to the CSU20, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
45.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 21Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+4
45.8%
Ben Wooldridge pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 4 yds to the ColSt 17Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
45.0%
Ben Wooldridge pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
47.1%
Cesar Silva 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
44.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for 2 yds to the ColSt 28Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
44.7%
Todd Centeio run for 5 yds to the ColSt 33Similar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 3
OWN 33
0
44.5%
Marcus Jr. Mcelroy run for no gain to the ColSt 19 Marcus Mcelroy Jr. fumbled, forced by Sherwin King Jr., recovered by ColSt Todd CenteioSimilar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
46.6%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:3847% → 60%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
47.4%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 14 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
49.2%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
48.3%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 15
OWN 41
-2
47.6%
Jordan Mims run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+15
46.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 15 yds to the ColSt 46Similar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+14
47.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 14 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
59.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 32 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
55.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 11 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
54.9%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to E.J. ScottSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
55.3%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
56.1%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to E.J. Scott, broken up by Evan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+15
57.5%
STONEHOUSE, R. punt 59 yards to the FS0, touchback, PENALTY FS roughing the kicker (BROWN, Jordan) 15 yards to the FS44, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
53.6%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
53.9%
A'Jon Vivens run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
55.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
57.3%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10TD
13 plays · 91 yds · 3:1458% → 76%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-7
57.9%
Jake Haener sacked by Brandon Hickerson-Rooks for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & 17
OWN 2
+7
57.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 7 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 9
+34
56.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 34 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
60.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-15
61.8%
HAENER, Jake pass complete to PAUWELS JR., R. for 9 yards to the CSU43 (BLACKBURN, H.), PENALTY FS pass interference (COLEMAN, Chris) 15 yards to the FS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 20
OWN 33
+1
59.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 19
OWN 34
+33
58.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Ronnie Rivers for 33 yds to the ColSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
63.0%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
62.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Erik Brooks for 8 yds to the ColSt 25Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+10
62.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 10 yds to the ColSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
75.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 15 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
70.8%
Todd Centeio run for 4 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
70.7%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
71.2%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to E.J. ScottSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+39
72.1%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FRESNOST 36 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
73.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.7%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jalen CropperSimilar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
74.7%
Jalen Cropper run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
73.9%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jamal Glaspie, broken up by Rashad AjayiSimilar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+9
72.9%
Cade Fuller punt for 42 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for 9 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
73.3%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr run for 1 yd to the ColSt 42Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+7
73.3%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr. run for 7 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q3 14:03
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
72.5%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
73.4%
Ryan Stonehouse punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0077% → 75%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
76.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the FrsSt 11Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+9
76.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 9 yds to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+2
75.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
76.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Ronnie RiversSimilar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
76.7%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Jordan Mims FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 10
OWN 22
-9
75.8%
Jake Haener sacked by Mohamed Kamara for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 19
OWN 13
0
74.7%
Cade Fuller punt for 51 yds, downed at the ColSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
76.8%
Thomas Pannunzio run for 1 yd to the ColSt 37Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+13
76.9%
Todd Centeio run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
50
+14
75.3%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr. run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-15
75.3%
CENTEIO, T. pass complete to WALKER, J. for 8 yards to the FS28 (PERRY, Deonte), PENALTY CSU personal foul (WILLIAMS, K.) 15 yards to the CSU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 25
OWN 49
+2
76.7%
Todd Centeio run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 23
OPP 49
+4
77.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 19
OPP 45
+12
77.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 12 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
76.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17TD
15 plays · 67 yds · 4:5683% → 97%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
83.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Josh Kelly for 10 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
83.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 3
50
-15
84.0%
Jake Haener sacked by Scott Patchan and Brandon Hickerson-Rooks for a loss of 15 yards to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 18
OWN 35
+17
82.1%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 17 yds to the ColSt 48Similar
Q3 7:39
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+1
82.5%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the ColSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
84.1%
Jake Haener pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+38
84.0%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 38 yds to the ColSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
84.1%
Jake Haener run for a loss of 5 yards to the ColSt 14Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
84.7%
Jake Haener run for 1 yd to the ColSt 13Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
84.1%
HAENER, Jake pass incomplete to KELLY, Josh, PENALTY CSU pass interference (STEWART, L.) 11 yards to the CSU2, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
84.9%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd to the ColSt 1Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the ColSt 1Similar
Q3 2:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.1%
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
94.8%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Trey McBride for 22 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
94.3%
McELROY, M. rush for 3 yards to the FS31 (PERRY, Deonte), PENALTY CSU holding (JOHNSON, E.) 10 yards to the FS44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 20
OPP 44
0
94.8%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:35
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+9
94.8%
A'Jon Vivens run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 11
OPP 35
+27
94.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 27 yds to the FrsSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
94.1%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr. run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q3 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
94.6%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr.run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
95.0%
Marcus Mcelroy Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q3 2:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.0%
Todd Centeio pass incomplete to Trey McBrideSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0899% → 98%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
98.8%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Keric WheatfallSimilar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+5
98.8%
Ronnie Rivers run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+8
98.7%
Jake Haener pass complete to Keric Wheatfall for 8 yds to the FrsSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
98.6%
Ronnie Rivers run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Jake Haener pass incomplete to Raymond Pauwels Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
98.5%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 8 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+5
98.6%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jamal Glaspie for 5 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.7%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+2
98.6%
Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 47
-6
98.6%
Jake Haener sacked by Scott Patchan for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 41
0
98.4%
Cade Fuller punt for 31 yds, downed at the ColSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-9
98.2%
CENTEIO, T. pass incomplete, PENALTY CSU intentional grounding (CENTEIO, T.) 9 yards to the CSU19, NO PLAY (JOHNSON, D.).Similar
Q4 10:54
2ND & 19
OWN 19
-2
98.4%
Todd Centeio sacked by David Perales for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 17 Todd Centeio fumbled, recovered by FrsSt David Perales , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21TD
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:4199% → 100%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
99.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 9 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 1
OPP 8
-1
99.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 9Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+3
99.3%
Ronnie Rivers run for 3 yds to the ColSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.2%
Ronnie Rivers run for no gain to the ColSt 6Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Jake Haener pass complete to Jalen Cropper for 6 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 7 yds to the ColSt 37Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Marcus Jr. Mcelroy run for 4 yds to the ColSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien run for 4 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+27
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 27 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
99.8%
Christian Hunter run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to E.J. Scott, broken up by Bralyn LuxSimilar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+4
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Nate Craig-Myers for 4 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
99.8%
Patrick O'Brien run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+1
99.8%
Patrick O'Brien run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 12Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass incomplete to Trey McBride, broken up by Deven JarvisSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 4
OPP 12
-1
99.8%
Patrick O'Brien run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
99.9%
Jevon Bigelow run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+1
99.9%
Jevon Bigelow run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 1
OWN 22
-2
99.9%
Jevon Bigelow run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 20Similar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 3
OWN 20
+23
99.9%
Cade Fuller punt for 39 yds , Thomas Pannunzio returns for 23 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:150% → 1%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien sacked by Alex Dumais for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 44 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 18
OPP 44
+1
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to A'Jon Vivens for 1 yd to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 17
OPP 43
+13
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 13 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+10
99.9%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to E.J. Scott for 10 yds to the FrsSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.3%
Patrick O'Brien pass complete to Trey McBride for 20 yds for a TD (Robert Liss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:03
Jake Haener pass complete to Jordan Mims for 15 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
+14
TD · Q2 6:32
Ronnie Rivers run for 32 yds for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
+11.9
TD · Q3 2:43
Ronnie Rivers run for 1 yd for a TD (Cesar Silva KICK)
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com