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BOIS

Boise State 49 at Air Force 30

AF
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadBOIS aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreBOIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:31 · Joseph Carlson punt for 32 yds , Avery Williams returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior−22.3Home team on offense−3.7Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:27: Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +8.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:47: Jack Sears pass complete to Octavius Evans for 21 yds for a TD Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 00:47 (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +7.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:54: Jack Sears pass complete to CT Thomas for 26 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +11.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:24: Matthew Murla run for 7 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK) — AF win probability +10.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:13: Brice Honaker kickoff for 53 yds , Avery Williams return for 88 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK) — BOIS win probability +14.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BOIS made the numbers' call on 0 of 2
  1. Q1 9:27BOIS 4th & 3 at BOIS 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 6:53AF 4th & 10 at BOIS 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−4.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 1:31AF 4th & 3 at AF 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 4 at AF 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.3%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:58BOIS 4th & 2 at BOIS 28, up 11
    Close callPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:26AF 4th & 2 at BOIS 27, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    18.4%−1.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    13.3%−6.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:02AF 4th & 14 at BOIS 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    12.2%−4.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00AF 4th & 1 at BOIS 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−2.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:25AF 4th & 11 at AF 24, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:24AF 4th & 5 at BOIS 36, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−0.1
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:50BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:27AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:23AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:14BOIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:27BOIS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:47BOIS Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:54BOIS Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:24AF Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:24BOIS Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:04AF Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BOISDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
14.9%
Jack Sears pass complete to CT Thomas for 75 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2315% → 18%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
14.9%
Brandon Lewis run for 26 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
14.9%
Brandon Lewis run for 18 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
14.9%
Joshua Stoner run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 2
OPP 23
-5
14.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+8
14.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
14.9%
Brandon Lewis run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 15Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
16.1%
Matthew Murla run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+4
16.0%
Matthew Murla run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
16.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
18.1%
Brandon Lewis run for 7 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0082% → 83%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.6%
Jack Sears pass complete to John Bates for 5 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
17.4%
George Holani run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
17.6%
Jack Sears run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
17.4%
George Holani run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
17.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
17.3%
Jack Sears pass incomplete to John BatesSimilar
Q1 9:27
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
17.5%
Joel Velazquez punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
6 plays · 87 yds · 2:5019% → 25%
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
19.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+12
19.0%
Brandon Lewis run for 12 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+50
19.1%
Elija Robinson run for 50 yds to the BoiSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+17
19.9%
Brandon Lewis run for 17 yds to the BoiSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
19.9%
Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 1Similar
Q1 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.5%
Matthew Murla run for 1 yd for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 5:0377% → 79%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
23.5%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+8
23.6%
Jack Sears pass complete to Octavius Evans for 8 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
23.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+16
23.3%
Jack Sears pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
50
+5
22.6%
Jack Sears pass complete to Andrew Van Buren for 5 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 5
OPP 0
0
22.0%
SEARS, Jack pass incomplete to SHAKIR, Khalil, PENALTY AF pass interference off-setting, PENALTY BOISE holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+10
22.5%
Jack Sears pass complete to John Bates for 10 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
24.3%
Riley Smith run for 20 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
24.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 5 yds to the AFA 10Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+6
24.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 6 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 4 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 6:2124% → 31%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
23.8%
Warren Bryan run for 7 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
24.5%
Matthew Murla run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
24.0%
Warren Bryan run for 4 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
24.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+9
23.8%
Brandon Lewis run for 9 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+3
24.9%
Warren Bryan run for 3 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+7
24.5%
Warren Bryan run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
25.2%
Warren Bryan pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 19 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, personal foul (Avery Williams) to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
25.6%
Warren Bryan run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
25.6%
Matthew Murla run for no gain to the BoiSt 12Similar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-2
25.1%
Warren Bryan run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
31.4%
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 4:2171% → 79%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
28.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
50
+9
27.5%
Jack Sears pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 9 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+3
27.1%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
27.4%
Jack Sears pass complete to John Bates for 5 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+4
26.4%
Jack Sears pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 6:48
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+9
27.2%
Khalil Shakir run for 9 yds to the AFA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+16
26.4%
Riley Smith run for 16 yds to the AFA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
29.2%
Andrew Van Buren run for 3 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 0:5624% → 25%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
23.8%
Warren Bryan run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
24.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (Kyle Patterson) to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
23.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+8
23.5%
Elija Robinson run for 8 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
23.6%
Joshua Stoner run for 5 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q2 1:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+1
24.9%
Joseph Carlson punt for 32 yds , Avery Williams returns for 1 yd to the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 9TD
5 plays · 63 yds · 0:3576% → 86%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
24.2%
Jack Sears run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
23.3%
Jack Sears pass complete to John Bates for 16 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
21.9%
Jack Sears pass complete to John Bates for 4 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+12
21.4%
Jack Sears run for 12 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
14.3%
Jack Sears pass complete to Octavius Evans for 21 yds for a TD Timeout AIR FORCE, clock 00:47 (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10END OF HALF
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.2%
Elija Robinson run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
17.3%
Warren Bryan run for 16 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
18.1%
Warren Bryan pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 13 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.0%
Brandon Lewis run for 6 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
17.5%
Elija Robinson run for 5 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
17.5%
Warren Bryan run for no gain to the AFA 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
17.3%
Elija Robinson run for 5 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+1
17.4%
Matthew Murla run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
16.9%
Joseph Carlson punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
17.0%
Jack Sears pass incomplete to Octavius EvansSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
17.1%
Jack Sears run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
17.1%
Jack Sears pass incomplete to Khalil Shakir, broken up by Zion KellySimilar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
17.6%
Joel Velazquez punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ben Peterson at the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13MISSED FG
15 plays · 53 yds · 6:5917% → 16%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
17.2%
Warren Bryan run for 4 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
18.3%
Brandon Lewis run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 4
50
+4
18.9%
Matthew Murla run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
19.1%
Warren Bryan run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+4
19.1%
Elija Robinson run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
20.0%
Jordan Gidrey run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
20.0%
Elija Robinson run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+2
18.9%
Jordan Gidrey run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 27Similar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 2
OPP 27
+9
18.5%
Warren Bryan run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
20.9%
Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-10
20.9%
MURLA, Matthew rush for 3 yards to the BOISE15 (WHIMPEY, Riley;KAFENTZIS, R.), PENALTY AF holding (FERGUSON, Parke) 10 yards to the BOISE28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:26
2ND & 20
OPP 28
0
20.1%
Warren Bryan run for no gain to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q3 6:26
3RD & 20
OPP 28
+6
18.5%
Warren Bryan pass complete to Kyle Patterson for 6 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+39
16.2%
Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 3:0883% → 97%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
16.6%
Andrew Van Buren run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
16.4%
Jack Sears pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 11 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
15.3%
Andrew Van Buren run for 17 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
14.9%
Jack Sears pass complete to Tyler Crowe for 15 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
14.6%
Riley Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+26
3.5%
Jack Sears pass complete to CT Thomas for 26 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:307% → 18%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.9%
Elija Robinson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
7.3%
Warren Bryan run for 7 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
7.3%
Warren Bryan run for 2 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+6
6.8%
Brandon Lewis run for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
7.1%
Elija Robinson run for 3 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
7.0%
Warren Bryan run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
7.3%
Elija Robinson run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+4
7.6%
Warren Bryan run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+1
7.8%
Matthew Murla run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+7
7.8%
Jordan Gidrey run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+18
8.3%
Ben Peterson run for 18 yds to the BoiSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
18.3%
Matthew Murla run for 7 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:484% → 4%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
4.1%
Warren Bryan run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
3.8%
Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Jordan Gidrey, broken up by Riley WhimpeySimilar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
3.7%
Warren Bryan pass incomplete to Jordan GidreySimilar
Q4 10:25
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
3.7%
Joseph Carlson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Avery Williams at the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 2:3597% → 100%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
2.6%
Jack Sears pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 3 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+9
2.6%
Khalil Shakir run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
2.5%
Cade Fennegan run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+47
2.5%
Jack Sears pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 47 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
2.4%
Cade Fennegan run for 4 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Jack Sears run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:200% → 3%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
0.3%
2B rush for 2 yards to the AF27 (OBICHERE, D.;WHIMPEY, Riley), PENALTY AF illegal block 13 yards to the AF12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 23
OWN 12
+10
0.2%
BRITTAIN, Ben pass complete to SPIEWAK, Jake for no gain to the AF12 (LEBEAUF, Tyric), PENALTY BOISE holding 10 yards to the AF22, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
0.3%
CJ McNeal run for 5 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
0.3%
CJ McNeal run for 11 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
0.3%
- 2b run for 2 yds to the AFA 48Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+11
0.3%
CJ McNeal run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
0.3%
Bo Gross run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 39Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+4
0.3%
Ben Brittain run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-1
0.4%
- 2b run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+31
0.3%
Ben Brittain pass complete to Rhett Harms for 31 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
0.3%
Ben Brittain run for 8 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 2:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.5%
Bo Gross run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 20END OF GAME
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
0.7%
Tyler Crowe run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 23Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 3
OWN 23
+7
0.7%
Tyler Crowe run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:13
Brice Honaker kickoff for 53 yds , Avery Williams return for 88 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-14.3
TD · Q3 0:54
Jack Sears pass complete to CT Thomas for 26 yds for a TD (Jonah Dalmas KICK)
-11
TD · Q4 11:24
Matthew Murla run for 7 yds for a TD (Tevye Schuettpelz-Rohl KICK)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com