Try the model
WIS

Wisconsin 7 at Iowa 28

IOWA
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Kinnick Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:52 · Andy Vujnovich punt for 60 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense+0.6Pregame prior−5.8Score differential+0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:01: Keith Duncan 45 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +6.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:49: Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 19 yds for a TD (Spencer Petras pass for Two-Point Conversion) — IOWA win probability +14.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:42: Nakia Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +15.7 pts (now 39%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:42: Jack Van Dyke kickoff for 63 yds , Ihmir Smith-Marsette return for 29 yds to the Iowa 31 — IOWA win probability +5.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:23: Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 53 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +17.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10WIS made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00IOWA 4th & 1 at WIS 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    46.0%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:12IOWA 4th & 4 at WIS 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.3%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−1.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:12WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:27IOWA 4th & 10 at IOWA 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:00WIS 4th & 6 at WIS 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:11IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 19, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:52WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:58WIS 4th & 7 at IOWA 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:29IOWA 4th & 14 at IOWA 26, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−1.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 7:26WIS 4th & 18 at WIS 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:27IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
  13. Q2 4:32WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−0.9
    average punt
  14. Q2 2:42IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  15. Q2 1:28WIS 4th & 1 at IOWA 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−1.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    44.1%−3.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:41WIS 4th & 2 at IOWA 29, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%−2.0
    58% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−9.2
    average punt
  17. Q3 8:49WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 34, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q3 5:42IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−2.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  19. Q3 4:46WIS 4th & 16 at WIS 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−3.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:17WIS 4th & 4 at IOWA 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−0.7
    54% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−2.4
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:17WIS 4th & 11 at IOWA 19, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−6.6
    average punt
  22. Q4 7:44IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 21, up 14
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.9%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    95.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 7:44WIS 4th & 2 at IOWA 2, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−1.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−6.2
    average punt
  24. Q4 4:09WIS 4th & 9 at WIS 26, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 1 of 3WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 8:49IOWA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 5:42WIS Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:23IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:09IOWA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
42.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 9 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
42.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 15 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
42.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Wisc 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
-2
42.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
42.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 6 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
0
42.6%
Tory Taylor punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
43.7%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
43.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 6 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
43.6%
Garrett Groshek run for 5 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
43.6%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 32 Nakia Watson fumbled, recovered by Iowa Nick NiemannSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:0445% → 46%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
45.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 14 yds to the Wisc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
45.2%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-2
45.2%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 20Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+8
44.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 8 yds to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
46.0%
Keith Duncan 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.9%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
45.7%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
45.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack DunnSimilar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
46.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
46.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 2 yds to the Iowa 21Similar
Q1 5:27
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
46.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 7 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-9
46.1%
Spencer Petras sacked by Noah Burks for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 19 IOWA Penalty, intentional grounding (Spencer Petras) to the Iowa 19Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
45.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
46.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 4 yds to the Wisc 48Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
0
46.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake Ferguson, broken up by Jack CampbellSimilar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
46.2%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
47.2%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
47.0%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 14Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
47.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 5 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
46.5%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
46.2%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
46.8%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 40Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
47.0%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack DunnSimilar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
47.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike, broken up by Riley MossSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
48.2%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 60 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:5848% → 47%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
47.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
47.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 10 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
48.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 7 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-6
49.2%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+2
47.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 2 yds to the Iowa 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
47.1%
Tory Taylor punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
49.1%
Chimere Dike run for 18 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
48.7%
Graham Mertz run for no gain to the Wisc 34 Graham Mertz fumbled, recovered by Wisc Graham MertzSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+4
48.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 4 yds to the Wisc 38Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+10
48.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 10 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
47.4%
Jack Dunn run for 3 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
47.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Nakia WatsonSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
47.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack DunnSimilar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
49.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
50.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
50.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-7
49.6%
Spencer Petras sacked by Isaiahh Loudermilk for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 26Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
48.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q2 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
51.0%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 29Similar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-10
51.4%
Graham Mertz sacked by Seth Benson for a loss of 10 yards to the Wisc 19Similar
Q2 7:26
3RD & 21
OWN 19
+3
52.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 3 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 18
OWN 22
+62
53.2%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 47 yds , Charlie Jones returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 21 IOWA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Iowa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
52.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 16Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
52.2%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
51.1%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
50.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
49.8%
Brady Schipper run for 3 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
49.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack Dunn, broken up by Jack CampbellSimilar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+4
50.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 4 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
50.8%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 51 yds, downed at the Iowa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1252% → 53%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
51.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 4Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
52.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Iowa 6Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
53.6%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 6
OWN 6
+34
52.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 39 yds IOWA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Iowa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0148% → 45%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
52.5%
Garrett Groshek run for 3 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
52.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 4 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q2 2:29
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+2
52.5%
Garrett Groshek run for 2 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 1
OPP 31
-6
55.1%
Garrett Groshek run for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 1:2157% → 64%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
57.3%
[SG], PENALTY WIS pass interference (Williams, C.) 15 yards to the WIS48, 1ST DOWN IOWA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
59.2%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
58.9%
Spencer Petras run for 5 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+11
58.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 11 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
60.2%
[SG], Petras,Spencer pass incomplete to Tracy,Tyrone, PENALTY IOWA pass interference (Tracy,Tyrone) 15 yards to the WIS47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 25
OPP 47
0
57.9%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 25
OPP 47
+20
57.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 20 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+45
64.4%
Keith Duncan 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.2%
Mason Stokke run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19MISSED FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:1941% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
58.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
57.6%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
57.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 13 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
55.9%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+11
55.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Mason Stokke for 11 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
55.6%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+3
54.0%
Mason Stokke run for 3 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
55.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+47
59.4%
Collin Larsh 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:5264% → 83%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
64.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 14 yds to the Iowa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
66.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 38 yds to the Wisc 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
67.2%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Wisc 19Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
67.2%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
81.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 19 yds for a TD (Spencer Petras pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q3 8:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 3 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q3 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
79.6%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wisc 23Similar
Q3 8:49
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+10
79.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 10 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 8:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
78.6%
Mason Stokke run for 1 yd to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
79.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 41 yds , Charlie Jones returns for no gain to the Iowa 25 Charlie Jones fumbled, recovered by Wisc Adam BaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 22TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:5523% → 39%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
77.2%
Chimere Dike run for 3 yds to the Iowa 22Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+21
77.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 21 yds to the Iowa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.4%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0073% → 70%
Q3 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
72.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Iowa 32Similar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
72.3%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
71.3%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q3 5:42
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
70.1%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0032% → 29%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
68.5%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
68.9%
Nakia Watson run for 3 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-9
69.6%
Graham Mertz sacked by Chauncey Golston for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 4:46
4TH & 16
OWN 20
+1
71.3%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 22 , Charlie Jones returns for 1 yd to the Iowa 21 IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Iowa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:4774% → 91%
Q3 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
73.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+4
73.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+16
73.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 16 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
91.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 53 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 26DOWNS
21 plays · 56 yds · 4:0614% → 9%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
86.2%
Mertz, Graham rush left for no gain to the WIS25 (VanValkenburg,Z;Niemann,Nick), PENALTY WIS illegal formation 5 yards to the WIS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
86.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 14 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
84.9%
WISCONSIN Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
85.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 5 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
87.2%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
87.4%
Jack Dunn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
87.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Mason StokkeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+16
88.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Devin Chandler for 16 yds to the Iowa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
86.7%
Chimere Dike run for no gain to the Iowa 49Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
91.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Devin Chandler for 12 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
91.0%
Garrett Groshek run for 1 yd to the Iowa 36Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+5
91.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 5 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 4
OPP 31
0
90.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Garrett GroshekSimilar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 4
OPP 31
+13
91.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 13 yds to the Iowa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
89.8%
Nakia Watson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 4
OPP 12
-10
89.8%
Watson, Nakia rush left for no gain to the IOWA12 (Benson,Seth), PENALTY WIS holding (Van Lanen, Cole) 10 yards to the IOWA22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 14
OPP 22
+3
90.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to A.J. Abbott for 3 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q4 12:17
3RD & 11
OPP 19
0
91.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q4 12:17
4TH & 11
OPP 19
0
91.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · -14 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
95.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 6 yds to the Iowa 25Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-4
95.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 21Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
95.4%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Tyler GoodsonSimilar
Q4 7:44
4TH & 8
OWN 21
-16
95.1%
Team run for a loss of 11 yards to the Iowa 5 Team fumbled, recovered by Iowa Tory Taylor IOWA Penalty, illegal kicking (Tory Taylor) to the Iowa 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 28INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 7:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.4%
Graham Mertz run for no gain to the Iowa 5Similar
Q4 7:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
93.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 3 yds to the Iowa 2Similar
Q4 7:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.9%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted, touchback. Jack Campbell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 29TD
1 play · 80 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
99.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 80 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Devin Chandler, broken up by Matt HankinsSimilar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Brady Schipper for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
99.3%
[SG], PENALTY WIS false start (Beach, Tyler) 5 yards to the WIS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.4%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake Ferguson, broken up by Joe EvansSimilar
Q4 4:09
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.4%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds, downed at the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
99.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 6 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
99.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 44Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 12
OWN 44
-2
99.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 14
OWN 42
-2
99.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:23
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 53 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
+17.5
TD · Q3 5:42
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q3 8:49
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 19 yds for a TD (Spencer Petras pass for Two-Point Conversion)
+14.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com