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MSU

Michigan State 24 at Penn State 39

PSU
2020 · Week 15 · Dec 12, 2020 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:57 · Mitchell Crawford punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Pregame prior+6.3Home team on offense+23.4Score differential+8.4Garbage-time factor+5.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:26: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +12.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:07: Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds for a TD (Sean Clifford pass to Jahan Dotson for Two-Point Conversion) — PSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. FG · Q3 1:59: Matt Coghlin 23 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +15.2 pts (now 55%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:02: Will Levis run for 1 yd for a TD MICHIGAN ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +18.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:18: Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 49 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +16.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:37MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:06PSU 4th & 6 at MSU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:06MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 18.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−1.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:37PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:37PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 41, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:07MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−2.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:37PSU 4th & 11 at PSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−3.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 1:59MSU 4th & 6 at PSU 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−14.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 15, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−7.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:24MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:17MSU 4th & 25 at MSU 9, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:22PSU 4th & 8 at MSU 46, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:57MSU 4th & 23 at MSU 14, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:58PSU 4th & 1 at MSU 24, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    95.5%−2.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:36MSU 4th & 10 at PSU 10, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.5
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−1.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 13:50MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:00PSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:24MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:26MSU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:07PSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    58.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:02PSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:18PSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.5%
Jayden Reed run for 7 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
88.5%
PENN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shaka Toney) to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-6
88.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Antonio Shelton for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 41
+5
88.5%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-17
88.5%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Jaquan Brisker return for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 Jaquan Brisker fumbled, forced by Jalen Nailor, recovered by MchSt Matt CarrickSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
88.1%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
88.1%
Jayden Reed run for no gain to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 13
OWN 36
-1
88.1%
Payton Thorne sacked by Shane Simmons for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 13:37
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
88.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:1888% → 86%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
87.5%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+27
87.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 27 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
87.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 12 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
87.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 7 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+2
87.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
87.7%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+6
87.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 4
OPP 15
+6
87.7%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-10
87.7%
Lee, Keyvone rush for 9 yards to the MSU0, clock 11:24, PENALTY PSU holding (Fries, Will) 10 yards to the MSU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
0
87.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington, broken up by Noah HarveySimilar
Q1 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+12
87.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 12 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
87.7%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 6Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
86.4%
Jake Pinegar 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
86.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
86.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 12 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
86.2%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+7
86.3%
Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+2
86.0%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
86.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 3:5586% → 84%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
85.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
85.6%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+2
85.4%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
85.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
85.6%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-10
85.4%
Clifford, Sean rush for 4 yards to the PSU37 (Simmons, A.), PENALTY PSU holding (Miranda, Mike) 10 yards to the PSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 23
0
83.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
83.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 60 yds · 0:5916% → 20%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
83.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 9 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
83.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
80.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 45 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:4482% → 84%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
81.6%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+10
81.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
50
+5
82.2%
Caziah Holmes run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
82.4%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
82.2%
Will Levis run for 5 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
82.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan Dotson, broken up by Kalon GervinSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
82.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+31
83.5%
Sean Clifford run for 31 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:3617% → 27%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
82.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
82.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 7 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
81.9%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+8
82.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Matt Dotson for 8 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+21
81.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Matt Dotson for 21 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
81.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 9 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
-5
80.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (Matt Carrick) to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+26
73.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre'Von Morgan for 26 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:4576% → 76%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
75.5%
Will Levis run for no gain to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+12
75.4%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Washington, P., PENALTY MSU pass interference (Grose, Angelo) 12 yards to the PSU27, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
76.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+12
76.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 12 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
77.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
77.5%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
76.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
75.7%
Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 1:5726% → 41%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
74.2%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+8
74.2%
Jordon Simmons run for 8 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
73.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+11
73.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 11 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+37
73.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 37 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+19
71.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Matt Dotson for 19 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
59.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4462% → 59%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
61.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 2 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
61.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 4 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
61.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
58.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
57.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:4658% → 72%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
57.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 11 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
58.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+16
58.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 16 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
60.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+11
60.4%
Will Levis pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 11 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
61.6%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+12
61.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 12 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
61.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 9 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+2
61.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
61.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
72.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds for a TD (Sean Clifford pass to Jahan Dotson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
66.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 16 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
64.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 10 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
64.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete, broken up by Jesse LuketaSimilar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-3
64.1%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 13
OWN 48
0
66.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
68.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
65.7%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 14Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
65.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo Johnson, broken up by Naquan JonesSimilar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 11
OWN 14
0
64.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete, broken up by Drew BeesleySimilar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 11
OWN 14
+10
63.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 53 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 10 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:4439% → 55%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
60.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+13
60.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 13 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
60.2%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the PnSt 41Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+4
60.2%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+5
60.7%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Nailor, Jalen, PENALTY PSU offside defense (Toney, Shaka) 5 yards to the PSU32, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
59.0%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+5
58.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
58.6%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+17
58.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 17 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
58.6%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 5Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
58.6%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 6Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
60.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by Shane SimmonsSimilar
Q3 1:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
45.0%
Matt Coghlin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 1:4952% → 77%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
52.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+36
51.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 36 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+26
58.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 26 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
58.5%
Will Levis run for 6 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.9%
Will Levis run for 1 yd for a TD MICHIGAN ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0229% → 26%
Q3 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
71.2%
Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
72.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Jonathan Sutherland and Adisa Isaac for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
74.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 47 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for no gain to the PnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:1473% → 91%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
73.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+9
74.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 9 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
90.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 49 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5413% → 5%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
87.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler HuntSimilar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
87.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+81
94.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 52 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 81 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
94.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
94.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Shane Simmons and Antonio Shelton for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 15
OWN 19
0
94.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 15
OWN 19
-10
95.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Matt Carrick) to the MchSt 9Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 25
OWN 9
0
95.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the MchSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
96.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+3
96.5%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-2
96.4%
Will Levis run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 8
OPP 46
+35
96.2%
Jordan Stout punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 11 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
95.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 8 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+8
95.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 8 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed, broken up by Lamont WadeSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
95.9%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
95.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre'Von MorganSimilar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 8
OWN 29
-15
96.0%
Thorne, Payton rush for 10 yards to the MSU39 (Wilson, Marquis), PENALTY MSU face mask (Jarvis, Kevin) 15 yards to the MSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 23
OWN 14
0
96.1%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 34 yds · 2:1697% → 98%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
97.1%
Will Levis run for no gain to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+7
97.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 7 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+2
97.7%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+5
97.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, offside defense (Naquan Jones) to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
97.9%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+9
98.0%
Will Levis run for 9 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
98.1%
Will Levis run for 5 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
98.5%
Will Levis run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
98.4%
Will Levis run for 3 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
98.3%
Will Levis run for no gain to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25DOWNS
11 plays · 66 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
99.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 9 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+21
99.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 21 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+16
99.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 16 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Matt DotsonSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
98.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 5 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+20
98.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kalon Gervin for 20 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
98.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 10Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Kalon GervinSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 2:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
98.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal participation (5 Yards) to the PnSt 15Similar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 5
OWN 15
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 13
-2
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:02
Will Levis run for 1 yd for a TD MICHIGAN ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+18.5
TD · Q4 12:18
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 49 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
+16.3
FG · Q3 1:59
Matt Coghlin 23 yd FG GOOD
-15.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com