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OSU

Ohio State 52 at Michigan State 12

MSU
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadOSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreOSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:05 · Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 3 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Home team on offense−48.5Pregame prior−16.4Score differential−34.2Garbage-time factor−16.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:01: Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 28 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:25: Justin Fields run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:15: Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted for a TD Haskell Garrett return for no gain for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:14: Trey Sermon run for 64 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK) — OSU win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:30: Payton Thorne run for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 3%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13OSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:23MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:08MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:50OSU 4th & 16 at OSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:42MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:22MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:25MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 44, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:22OSU 4th & 16 at MSU 36, up 21
    Close callPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    93.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.8%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:29MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:31OSU 4th & 7 at OSU 22, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:45MSU 4th & 2 at OSU 39, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:59OSU 4th & 2 at OSU 33, up 28
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:20MSU 4th & 6 at OSU 42, down 28
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:08OSU 4th & 10 at MSU 10, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:05MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 39, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:58MSU 4th & 10 at OSU 15, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    83% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:31OSU 4th & 11 at OSU 24, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:22MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 3, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:10MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:42MSU 4th & 21 at MSU 45, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1OSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 8:46OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:01OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:25OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:15OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:14OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:30MSU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:16OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:21OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:326% → 6%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
5.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+8
5.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 8 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
5.9%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
6.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 52 yds, downed at the OhSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 2TD
12 plays · 83 yds · 4:3494% → 93%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+16
6.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 16 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
6.2%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
6.3%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q1 12:39
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+15
6.4%
Fields, Justin pass incomplete to Olave, Chris, PENALTY MICHIGANST roughing passer (Fletcher, Michael) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
6.3%
Justin Fields run for 4 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
6.5%
Justin Fields run for 8 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
6.6%
Master Teague III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+3
6.7%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+7
6.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 7 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
7.0%
Master Teague III run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
7.2%
Master Teague III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 2Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
6.9%
Justin Fields run for 2 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:347% → 7%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
7.1%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Hunt, Tyler, PENALTY OHIOST pass interference (Hilliard, Justin) 8 yards to the MICHIGANST33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
7.1%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
7.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
7.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
7.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 3:1093% → 92%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
7.2%
Master Teague III run for 5 yds to the OhSt 23Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 5
OWN 23
-2
7.3%
Master Teague III run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 21Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+13
7.6%
Justin Fields run for 13 yds to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
7.5%
Teague III, Master rush for 11 yards to the OHIOST45, PENALTY OHIOST holding (Ruckert, Jeremy) 10 yards to the OHIOST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 20
OWN 24
-5
7.7%
Justin Fields pass complete to Trey Sermon for a loss of 5 yards to the OhSt 19Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 25
OWN 19
+9
7.9%
Trey Sermon run for 9 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 16
OWN 28
0
8.1%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q1 4:50
4TH & 16
OWN 28
0
8.2%
Drue Chrisman punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:038% → 9%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
8.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (AJ Arcuri) to the MchSt 10Similar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+2
8.1%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 18
OWN 12
+3
8.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 3 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+14
8.3%
Elijah Collins run for 14 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
8.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 0:2492% → 93%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+44
8.5%
Justin Fields run for 44 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
8.2%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Jameson WilliamsSimilar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+28
6.9%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 28 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:288% → 8%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
7.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
7.4%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+3
7.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 3 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
7.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5093% → 96%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.3%
Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the OhSt 27Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
7.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Julian Fleming for 2 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
7.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 7 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
7.3%
Master Teague III run for 1 yd to the OhSt 37Similar
Q2 13:15
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+14
7.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 24 yds to the MICHIGANST 39 for a 1ST down OHIO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-3
7.2%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 48Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 13
OWN 48
+8
7.4%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 8 yds Chris Olave fumbled, recovered by OhStSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+17
7.3%
Justin Fields run for 7 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+25
7.2%
Trey Sermon run for 25 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
7.1%
Fields, Justin rush for loss of 3 yards to the MICHIGANST5, PENALTY MICHIGANST 12 men on the field 1 yards to the MICHIGANST1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
4.5%
Justin Fields run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:446% → 6%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
5.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 17 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
5.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
5.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+2
5.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
5.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:5395% → 95%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
4.6%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 19 yds to the OhSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
4.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 13 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
4.4%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+15
4.7%
Fields, Justin pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST roughing passer (Beesley, Drew) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OHIOST.Similar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
4.6%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
4.5%
Chris Olave run for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-9
4.7%
Justin Fields sacked by Michael Fletcher for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 36 OHIO ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Justin Fields) to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 16
OPP 36
0
4.9%
Drue Chrisman punt for 35 yds, downed at the MchSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 1:055% → 3%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
5.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd to the MchSt 2Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
5.4%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the MchSt 2Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
2.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted for a TD Haskell Garrett return for no gain for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:363% → 3%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
2.7%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-9
2.6%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Tyreke Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+8
3.0%
Elijah Collins run for 8 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q2 3:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+2
3.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 42 yds , Garrett Wilson returns for 2 yds to the OhSt 28 OHIO ST Penalty, Sideline Interference (15 Yards) to the OhSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5595% → 95%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
4.7%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Garrett Wilson, broken up by Angelo GroseSimilar
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-2
4.8%
Justin Fields pass complete to Wyatt Davis for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 17Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+5
5.1%
Justin Fields run for 5 yds to the OhSt 22Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 7
OWN 22
0
5.3%
Drue Chrisman punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14FUMBLE
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:302% → 1%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
2.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 6 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+9
1.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 9 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
2.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-7
2.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 17
OWN 46
+10
1.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 10 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+5
1.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 5 yds to the OhSt 39Similar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-8
1.3%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 47 Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by Baron Browning, recovered by OhSt Javontae Jean-BaptisteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0597% → 97%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
3.1%
OHIO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the OhSt 32Similar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
3.2%
Trey Sermon run for 4 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5697% → 98%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
3.0%
Master Teague III run for no gain to the OhSt 25Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
3.0%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 8 yds to the OhSt 33Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
2.8%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Chris OlaveSimilar
Q3 13:59
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
2.4%
Drue Chrisman punt for 54 yds, downed at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:353% → 3%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
2.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+1
2.5%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+6
2.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+19
2.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 19 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
2.6%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
2.5%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the OhSt 49Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+3
2.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the OhSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
2.7%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the OhSt 44Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+4
2.5%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 40
-2
2.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Jerron Cage and Zach Harrison for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 42Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
2.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Garrett Wilson at the OhSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 18TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 2:0198% → 99%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
1.6%
Trey Sermon run for 6 yds to the OhSt 19Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+8
1.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 8 yds to the OhSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
1.5%
Trey Sermon run for 2 yds to the OhSt 29Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+7
1.5%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 7 yds to the OhSt 36Similar
Q3 6:14
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+64
0.7%
Trey Sermon run for 64 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:301% → 3%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
0.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 55 yds to the OhSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
2.7%
Payton Thorne run for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3799% → 99%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
1.3%
Justin Fields sacked by Michael Fletcher for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 23Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+12
1.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 12 yds Chris Olave fumbled, recovered by MchStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
2.4%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Shaun Wade return for no gain to the OhSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 22FG
11 plays · 77 yds · 3:3299% → 99%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
1.3%
Trey Sermon run for 5 yds to the OhSt 18Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+16
1.2%
Trey Sermon run for 1 yd to the OhSt 19 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the OhSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
1.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
1.3%
Justin Fields pass complete to Julian Fleming for 6 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+11
1.3%
Justin Fields run for 11 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+25
1.2%
Justin Fields run for 25 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
1.2%
Trey Sermon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
1.1%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Trey SermonSimilar
Q3 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
0.7%
Justin Fields pass incomplete to Demario McCallSimilar
Q3 1:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
0.6%
Blake Haubeil 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23FG
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:021% → 0%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
1.1%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
0.5%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+7
0.5%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+3
0.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 3 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
0.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 10 yds to the OhSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
0.3%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+31
0.3%
Payton Thorne run for 31 yds to the OhSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
0.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
0.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley, broken up by Marcus HookerSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
0.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
0.4%
Matt Coghlin 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:24100% → 100%
Q4 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
0.3%
Justin Fields sacked by Michael Dowell and Jack Camper for a loss of 4 yards to the OhSt 21Similar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
0.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Naquan Jones) to the OhSt 26Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.3%
Miyan Williams run for no gain to the OhSt 26Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
0.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (Garrett Wilson) to the OhSt 21Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+3
0.2%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 24Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
0.2%
Drue Chrisman punt for 74 yds, downed at the MchSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
0.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+1
0.2%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 9
OWN 3
0
0.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 9
OWN 3
+7
0.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 45 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 7 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 26TD
1 play · 41 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
0.2%
Justin Fields pass complete to Chris Olave for 41 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
0.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+9
0.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Matt Dotson for 9 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the OhSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 28TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 2:29100% → 100%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
0.2%
Miyan Williams run for 6 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+6
0.2%
Miyan Williams run for 6 yds to the OhSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
0.2%
Miyan Williams run for 5 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+11
0.1%
Miyan Williams run for 11 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
0.1%
C.J. Stroud run for 48 yds for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 29PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
0.1%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
0.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Cade McDonaldSimilar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+7
0.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 7 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
0.1%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the OhSt 43Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
0.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler HuntSimilar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-12
0.1%
Payton Thorne sacked by Cormontae Hamilton for a loss of 12 yards to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 21
OWN 45
0
0.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the OhSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 30SF
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
0.1%
Steele Chambers run for 8 yds to the OhSt 21Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 2
OWN 21
-21
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 21 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 31Uncategorized
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:20100% → 100%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 12
OPP 39
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:15
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted for a TD Haskell Garrett return for no gain for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q2 10:25
Justin Fields run for 1 yd for a TD (Blake Haubeil KICK)
-2.6
TD · Q3 5:30
Payton Thorne run for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+1.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com