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IOWA

Iowa 35 at Illinois 21

ILL
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:44 · Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Caleb Griffin at the Iowa 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Pregame prior−28.8Home team on offense+1.7Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:30: Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 12 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +7.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:18: Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 22 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +10.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:14: Keith Duncan 27 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +5.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 8:24: Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Petras pass to Tyler Goodson for Two-Point Conversion) — IOWA win probability +17.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:40: Spencer Petras pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 16 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +10.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:42IOWA 4th & 5 at IOWA 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:44IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:49ILL 4th & 7 at IOWA 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:54IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:51IOWA 4th & 13 at IOWA 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:53ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 17, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:10IOWA 4th & 3 at ILL 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−1.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    48.9%−2.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:10ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%−2.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:54IOWA 4th & 3 at ILL 22, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%−0.6
    72% to make
    Punt
    49.1%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:29ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:14IOWA 4th & 9 at ILL 9, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    55.8%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:59ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:48ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:05IOWA 4th & 9 at ILL 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    77.9%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:32ILL 4th & 20 at ILL 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−5.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:31ILL 4th & 6 at IOWA 12, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−4.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:34ILL 4th & 10 at IOWA 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 8:10ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:30ILL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:18IOWA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:24IOWA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    73.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:40IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:56IOWA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:24ILL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:0682% → 80%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
18.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-7
18.7%
Spencer Petras sacked by Khalan Tolson for a loss of 7 yards to the Iowa 11Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 14
OWN 11
+9
19.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 9 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+4
19.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 54 yds , Caleb Griffin returns for 4 yds to the Illin 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:2420% → 24%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
19.7%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+4
20.0%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+18
20.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for 18 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
20.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 3 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
21.1%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+13
21.5%
Brandon Peters run for 13 yds to the Iowa 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
22.0%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the Iowa 24Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
22.4%
Brandon Peters run for no gain to the Iowa 24Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+24
24.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 24 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1476% → 74%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
24.2%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 5Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 13
OWN 5
0
24.5%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 13
OWN 5
+1
25.2%
Spencer Petras run for 1 yd to the Iowa 6Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 12
OWN 6
0
25.6%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Caleb Griffin at the Iowa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4926% → 27%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
26.0%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Iowa 47Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
26.7%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-3
26.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 45Similar
Q1 4:49
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
27.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:4273% → 70%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
27.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for 7 yds to the Iowa 18Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+1
27.3%
Spencer Petras run for 1 yd to the Iowa 19Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+10
28.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 10 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
28.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Iowa 34Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+2
28.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
29.2%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:54
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
29.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Caleb Griffin at the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:1530% → 42%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
30.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 12 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
31.0%
Reggie Love III run for 7 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+8
32.0%
Reggie Love III run for 8 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
32.9%
Reggie Love III run for 7 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
33.1%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Iowa 41Similar
Q2 14:32
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+4
33.1%
Chase Brown run for 4 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+25
34.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 25 yds to the Iowa 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
42.4%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 12 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:2660% → 58%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
39.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Monte Pottebaum for 20 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
39.7%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 45Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
40.3%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Shaun BeyerSimilar
Q2 12:34
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-3
40.8%
Spencer Petras sacked by Isaiah Gay and Owen Carney Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 42Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
42.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Caleb Griffin at the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5044% → 46%
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
44.0%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 6Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 17
OWN 6
+1
44.9%
Brandon Peters run for 1 yd to the Illin 7Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 16
OWN 7
+10
45.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 10 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
45.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 35 yds , Nico Ragaini returns for no gain to the Iowa 48 Nico Ragaini fumbled, recovered by Iowa Nico RagainiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:1755% → 62%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
44.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 8
50
+6
45.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 6 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 8:38
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+4
45.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
46.3%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-2
47.1%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+9
48.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 9 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q2 7:10
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+11
48.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 11 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
37.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 22 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:5843% → 42%
Q2 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
42.7%
Brown, Chase rush for 1 yard to the ILLINOIS26, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding 10 yards to the ILLINOIS15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+2
43.0%
Brandon Peters run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
43.1%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
42.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
41.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0159% → 62%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
41.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 13 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
40.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 12 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
40.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 4
OPP 23
0
40.6%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+1
42.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
38.4%
Keith Duncan 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1440% → 40%
Q2 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.0%
Chase Brown run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
41.4%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
40.3%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
39.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 37 yds , Charlie Jones returns for no gain to the Iowa 31 ILLINOIS Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Iowa 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13FG
13 plays · 44 yds · 1:0461% → 63%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
38.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 7 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+24
38.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 24 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
36.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 4
OPP 16
-9
39.2%
IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-9 Yards) to the Illin 25Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+21
40.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 21 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.0%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Ihmir Smith-MarsetteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
39.0%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
40.4%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
42.7%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 0:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
37.5%
Keith Duncan 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5640% → 40%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
39.8%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+10
40.6%
Chase Brown run for 10 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
41.2%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
42.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q3 13:09
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
41.0%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 7
OWN 36
+2
39.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 36 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 2 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:2160% → 80%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
40.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 8 yds to the Iowa 38Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+7
38.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 7 yds to the Iowa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
38.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+8
37.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 8 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
38.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+19
39.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 19 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
37.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 8 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+8
38.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 8 yds to the Illin 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
20.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Petras pass to Tyler Goodson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 23 yds · 3:1624% → 24%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
24.4%
Brandon Peters run for 5 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+4
25.1%
Brandon Peters run for 4 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
25.3%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
25.3%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
25.0%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q3 6:08
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+11
23.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 11 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
27.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 4 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-3
28.2%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
24.9%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+9
23.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 9 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:3977% → 79%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
22.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the Iowa 20Similar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+7
22.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 7 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
21.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 20 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
20.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:32
2ND & 7
50
+13
19.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 13 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
19.7%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
19.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 9
OPP 36
0
20.1%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q3 1:05
4TH & 9
OPP 36
0
21.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:2325% → 21%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+16
24.8%
Chase Brown run for 16 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
23.4%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
23.9%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
-8
21.8%
Brandon Peters sacked by Daviyon Nixon and Chauncey Golston for a loss of 8 yards to the Illin 17Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 15
OWN 17
-5
21.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 12Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 20
OWN 12
+18
21.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 38 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 18 yds to the Illin 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:3883% → 93%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
16.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 16 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
6.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 16 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21DOWNS
17 plays · 63 yds · 5:0311% → 8%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
10.5%
Isaiah Williams run for 8 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
11.1%
Isaiah Williams run for 9 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
11.8%
Chase Brown run for no gain to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
11.5%
Isaiah Williams run for 2 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+10
9.3%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Donny Navarro for 10 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
9.9%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
9.8%
Isaiah Williams run for 4 yds to the Iowa 42Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+7
9.0%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 7 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
9.4%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Donny NavarroSimilar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
8.2%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Daniel Barker for 2 yds to the Iowa 33Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+17
7.7%
Chase Brown run for 17 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
8.4%
Isaiah Williams run for 4 yds to the Iowa 12Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
8.4%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
8.0%
Isaiah Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 6
OPP 12
0
7.5%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Chase BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22TD
10 plays · 88 yds · 5:2796% → 100%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
4.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+2
4.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 19Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+3
3.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 3 yds to the Iowa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
3.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the Iowa 22Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+31
3.2%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 31 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
2.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 7 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+21
2.2%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 21 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
2.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
1.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
0.3%
Ihmir Smith-Marsette run for 13 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:281% → 3%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.9%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q4 1:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.8%
Isaiah Williams run for 11 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.8%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 6 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+11
0.9%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Luke Ford for 11 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
0.9%
Isaiah Williams pass incomplete to Luke FordSimilar
Q4 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
0.9%
Isaiah Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
0.9%
Isaiah Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 10
OPP 47
+18
0.8%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 18 yds to the Iowa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
1.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
3.4%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Carlos Sandy for 29 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
1.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:24
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Petras pass to Tyler Goodson for Two-Point Conversion)
-17.8
TD · Q2 6:18
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 22 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q4 12:40
Spencer Petras pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 16 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
-10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com