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PSU

Penn State 23 at Rutgers 7

RUTG
2020 · Week 14 · Dec 5, 2020 · SHI Stadium
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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:53 · Johnny Langan run for no gain to the Rutgr 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 24Home team on offense+0.4Pregame prior−30.0Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:21: Devyn Ford run for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 11:38: Jordan Stout 47 yd FG GOOD — PSU win probability +3.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:56: Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 3 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +8.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:48: Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo Melton — RUTG win probability +4.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:58: Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 4 — PSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 11PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:34PSU 4th & 1 at RUTG 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27PSU 4th & 13 at RUTG 31, tied
    Close callWent for it · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.5%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    75.5%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:53RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.5%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:25RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:37PSU 4th & 4 at RUTG 12, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.9%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    72.9%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:56RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.7%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:20RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:46RUTG 4th & 23 at PSU 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:17PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:31RUTG 4th & 5 at PSU 48, down 17
    Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:38PSU 4th & 11 at RUTG 29, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:22RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 46, down 20
    Close callPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:56RUTG 4th & 3 at PSU 3, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    8.9%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−7.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:48PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 34, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:37RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 43, down 13
    Close callPunted · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:54PSU 4th & 3 at RUTG 35, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    89.6%−2.0
    45% to make
    Punt
    88.5%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:12RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 36, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:27PSU 4th & 6 at RUTG 9, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    87.2%−5.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:07RUTG 4th & 6 at PSU 25, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    4.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−2.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:52PSU 4th & 19 at PSU 24, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 3:32PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:21PSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:56RUTG Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1DOWNS
17 plays · 66 yds · 6:2883% → 80%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
17.0%
Devyn Ford run for 8 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 14:32
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+5
17.1%
Devyn Ford run for 5 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
17.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 4 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
17.6%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+9
17.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 9 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
17.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 7 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+7
17.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
50
+1
18.1%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+10
18.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 10 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
18.5%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+4
18.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 4 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+1
19.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
19.4%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
19.3%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 13
OPP 31
0
19.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
19.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+7
20.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 7 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:2520% → 22%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
20.3%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
20.4%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+12
20.2%
Noah Vedral run for 12 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
20.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-2
20.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+10
21.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 10 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
21.7%
Johnny Langan run for no gain to the Rutgr 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 2:1079% → 81%
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
20.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+6
21.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+7
21.3%
Will Levis run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
21.4%
Will Levis run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+29
18.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 29 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:4320% → 20%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
20.1%
Noah Vedral run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+3
20.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 3 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-7
20.0%
Noah Vedral sacked by Daequan Hardy for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q1 1:25
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
19.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:3480% → 80%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
20.1%
Will Levis run for 14 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
20.0%
Will Levis run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+13
20.4%
Will Levis run for 13 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
19.6%
Devyn Ford run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:32
1ST & 10
50
+16
19.5%
Sean Clifford run for 16 yds to the Rutgr 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
19.4%
Devyn Ford run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+10
19.5%
Devyn Ford run for 10 yds to the Rutgr 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
19.6%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+1
19.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
20.1%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+30
20.1%
Jake Pinegar 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:1519% → 19%
Q2 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
19.4%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 9 yds to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q2 10:58
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
19.9%
Johnny Langan run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
19.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
20.0%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Matt AlaimoSimilar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+6
19.6%
Noah Vedral run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 45Similar
Q2 9:56
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
19.3%
Johnny Langan pass incomplete to Matt AlaimoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:2081% → 88%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
19.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+21
19.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 21 yds to the Rutgr 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
19.0%
Will Levis run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
18.8%
Will Levis run for no gain to the Rutgr 18Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+13
18.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Isaac Lutz for 13 yds to the Rutgr 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
17.8%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 7Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
11.6%
Devyn Ford run for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3514% → 14%
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
14.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
14.2%
Noah Vedral run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
14.2%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
14.1%
Adam Korsak punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
11.8%
Devyn Ford run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 36 Devyn Ford fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Avery YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:0916% → 14%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
15.6%
Johnny Langan run for no gain to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-10
15.5%
RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 20
OPP 46
-8
14.5%
Bo Melton run for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 28
OWN 46
+5
14.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 5 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 2:46
4TH & 23
OPP 49
0
13.9%
Adam Korsak punt for 37 yds, downed at the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1788% → 89%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
11.6%
Will Levis run for 4 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q2 1:59
2ND & 6
OWN 16
-4
10.8%
Will Levis sacked by Elorm Lumor for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 12Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+6
10.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Isaac Lutz for 6 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+4
10.9%
Jordan Stout punt for 39 yds , Avery Young returns for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3314% → 14%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
14.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 5 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
14.1%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
13.9%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+2
13.5%
Adam Korsak punt for 35 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 2 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
11.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:1513% → 13%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
12.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 10 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
12.6%
Noah Vedral run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 39 Noah Vedral fumbled, recovered by PnSt Jesse LuketaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15FG
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:4289% → 93%
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
10.8%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+9
10.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 9 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
10.7%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 11
OPP 29
-6
10.6%
Sean Clifford sacked by Naijee Jones and Michael Dwumfour for a loss of 6 yards to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+6
10.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 11:38
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+47
6.9%
Jordan Stout 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:118% → 9%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.4%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
8.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 15 yds to the Rutgr 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
8.8%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
9.2%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
9.3%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
8.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 1:1693% → 94%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
6.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 15Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+6
6.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 8
OWN 21
0
6.5%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Christian Izien return for no gain to the PnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18TD
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:449% → 16%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
8.9%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
9.1%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+8
8.6%
Noah Vedral run for 8 yds to the PnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
8.9%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 6 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+11
8.8%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 11 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
8.1%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
8.0%
Johnny Langan run for 2 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
8.1%
Noah Vedral run for 3 yds to the PnSt 3Similar
Q3 4:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 3 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5688% → 89%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.8%
Will Levis run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
11.6%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
11.2%
Will Levis run for 4 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
11.4%
Jordan Stout punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5615% → 14%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
15.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-1
14.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+7
13.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 7 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
14.2%
Adam Korsak punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:3390% → 91%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
10.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 20 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
9.5%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+14
9.3%
Devyn Ford run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
9.5%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 9
OPP 41
0
9.3%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+6
9.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
9.1%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the Rutgr 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3614% → 13%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
13.8%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
13.6%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
13.0%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:12
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
12.7%
Adam Korsak punt for 62 yds, downed at the PnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23FG
11 plays · 89 yds · 4:3191% → 95%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
8.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+46
8.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 31 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
50
+6
6.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+3
6.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+2
6.7%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
6.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 14 yds to the Rutgr 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
6.0%
Will Levis run for 12 yds to the Rutgr 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
5.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q4 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
5.7%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 9Similar
Q4 7:32
3RD & 6
OPP 9
0
5.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+27
4.9%
Jake Pinegar 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:066% → 4%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
5.6%
Noah Vedral run for 15 yds to the Rutgr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
5.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 15 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
5.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+19
6.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 19 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
6.8%
Kay'Ron Adams run for no gain to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
6.5%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 5:32
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+2
5.6%
Noah Vedral run for 2 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 5:07
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+3
4.2%
Noah Vedral run for 3 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
13 plays · 2 yds · 3:0896% → 99%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
3.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
3.5%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+1
3.5%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+5
3.2%
RUTGERS Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-12
3.1%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the PnSt 36 PENN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 22
OWN 21
0
2.8%
Caziah Holmes run for no gain to the PnSt 21Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 22
OWN 21
+1
2.5%
Will Levis run for 1 yd to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 21
OWN 22
+2
2.5%
Caziah Holmes run for 2 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 1:52
4TH & 19
OWN 24
0
1.4%
Jordan Stout punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26Uncategorized
10 plays · 27 yds · 1:451% → 1%
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
1.0%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
1.0%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Isaiah WashingtonSimilar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+10
1.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 10 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
1.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 1 yd to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+13
1.0%
Noah Vedral run for 13 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
1.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+5
1.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Kay'Ron Adams for 5 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q4 0:19
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
1.2%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Isaiah WashingtonSimilar
Q4 0:08
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+5
1.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
1.2%
Noah Vedral sacked by Dvon Ellies for a loss of 10 yards to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:56
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 3 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 6:21
Devyn Ford run for 7 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-6.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:48
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo Melton
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com