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PSU

Penn State 27 at Michigan 17

MICH
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:47 · Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds , Mike Sainristil returns for 2 yds to the Mich 27 Mike Sainristil fumbled, recovered by PnSt Drew Hartlaub
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Home team on offense−6.6Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1Pregame prior−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:30: Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +5.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:32: Sean Clifford run for 28 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:10: Jake Moody 40 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +5.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:12: Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +23.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  5. TD · Q4 8:12: Will Levis run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +21.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:50MICH 4th & 2 at PSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    53.1%−0.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    53.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:32PSU 4th & 6 at MICH 31, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:13MICH 4th & 3 at PSU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    55.8%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:02PSU 4th & 5 at PSU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:20MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:32MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:47PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:15PSU 4th & 5 at MICH 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.2%
    92% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−5.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.8%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:10MICH 4th & 2 at PSU 22, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%−1.0
    72% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:10PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:29MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−1.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:40PSU 4th & 3 at MICH 16, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.6%−0.7
    81% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−8.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:12MICH 4th & 1 at PSU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−3.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−4.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:50PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:30MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:32PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:12MICH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:12PSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1052% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
47.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
47.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
47.9%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
47.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 9 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
47.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
47.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 20 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
47.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+16
47.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Isaac Lutz for 16 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+9
47.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 9 yds to the Mich 6Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 1
OPP 6
+6
46.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:0047% → 48%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
47.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 8 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
47.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
47.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 5 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
47.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
47.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
50
-1
47.7%
Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 49
+8
47.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 8 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 10:50
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+1
47.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 42Similar
Q1 10:50
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
47.5%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 27 yds · 3:5055% → 55%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
45.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 7 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
45.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
45.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 4 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
45.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
45.1%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
45.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+7
45.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-5
45.6%
PENN ST Penalty, false start (Keyvone Lee) to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+49
44.6%
Jordan Stout 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 2:0245% → 52%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+59
45.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 59 yds to the PnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
47.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
47.1%
Cade McNamara run for 3 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3050% → 49%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
49.8%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
49.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the PnSt 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
50.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
50.9%
Jordan Stout punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
51.8%
Chris Evans run for 13 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
52.8%
Chris Evans run for 8 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 2
OPP 41
0
52.9%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 14:13
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-1
52.5%
Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 42Similar
Q2 14:13
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
51.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
50.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 3 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+6
50.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 6 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+3
50.2%
Will Levis run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
50.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
48.9%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 12:02
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
49.6%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:02
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+6
50.3%
Will Levis run for 6 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q2 12:02
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
50.4%
Jordan Stout punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
52.2%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 21 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
52.7%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
53.6%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
52.2%
Joe Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
51.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 76 yds · 3:2851% → 63%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
49.4%
Caziah Holmes run for 2 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
49.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+22
50.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 22 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
47.4%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+8
47.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 8 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
47.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 2 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+10
47.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 10 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
36.6%
Sean Clifford run for 28 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
40.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 6 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
41.3%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
39.8%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
39.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
37.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Isaac Lutz for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
36.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
37.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+2
38.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds , Mike Sainristil returns for 2 yds to the Mich 27 Mike Sainristil fumbled, recovered by PnSt Drew HartlaubSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 22 yds · 1:0067% → 68%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
33.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+9
34.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 9 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
33.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
33.8%
Sean Clifford run for 10 yds to the Mich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
33.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 0:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
34.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone LeeSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
32.5%
Jake Pinegar 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
15 plays · 43 yds · 5:5034% → 37%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
33.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 9 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
35.1%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
34.5%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
33.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
34.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 13 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
35.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+6
35.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 6 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+5
35.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Jayson Oweh) to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
32.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
33.7%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
33.6%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q3 10:32
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+8
32.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Chris Evans for 8 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
37.2%
Jake Moody 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for no gain to the PnSt 25Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
34.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 14 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
31.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+3
31.1%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-6
31.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Taylor Upshaw for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
34.9%
Jordan Stout punt for 33 yds , Blake Corum returns for no gain to the Mich 18 Blake Corum fumbled, recovered by Mich Blake Corum MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Roman Wilson) to the Mich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
33.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 2 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+3
33.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
32.4%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Chris Evans, broken up by Jayson OwehSimilar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
31.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 4:1971% → 77%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
29.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Isaac Lutz for 12 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
27.7%
Caziah Holmes run for 2 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+2
27.8%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+29
27.9%
Sean Clifford run for 29 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
26.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 6 yds to the Mich 17Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
26.4%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the Mich 16Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
27.1%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the Mich 16Similar
Q3 0:40
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+33
22.7%
Jake Pinegar 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2823% → 50%
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
22.7%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+28
22.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 28 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
25.7%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Hassan HaskinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
25.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 6 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+5
25.3%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Jayson Oweh) to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
26.9%
Blake Corum run for 15 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
26.9%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
50.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0061% → 88%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
38.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 12 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
35.8%
Sean Clifford run for 5 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+24
35.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 24 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
32.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+8
32.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
32.8%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the Mich 12Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
32.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker Washington, broken up by Daxton HillSimilar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+9
34.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 9 yds to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
32.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the Mich 2Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
11.6%
Will Levis run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 38 yds · 0:0014% → 16%
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
13.7%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
13.3%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Hassan HaskinsSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+5
12.8%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Shaka Toney) to the Mich 30Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
13.7%
Chris Evans run for 14 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
15.5%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Ronnie Bell, broken up by Shaka ToneySimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
15.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+10
14.3%
PENN ST Penalty, illegal batting (Shaka Toney) to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
16.9%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
16.3%
Joe Milton run for 8 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
17.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 8:12
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
15.5%
Joe Milton run for no gain to the PnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21END OF GAME
12 plays · 35 yds · 0:1190% → 91%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
9.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
9.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+3
9.2%
Will Levis run for 3 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
8.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 23 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
8.2%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
8.2%
Will Levis run for 5 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+6
8.5%
Will Levis run for 6 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
8.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 21Similar
Q4 5:26
2ND & 15
OPP 21
-5
8.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 26Similar
Q4 5:26
3RD & 20
OPP 26
-2
9.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:12
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
+23.5
TD · Q4 8:12
Will Levis run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-21.3
TD · Q2 3:32
Sean Clifford run for 28 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com