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Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreNEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:48 · Keith Duncan 33 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 3:48: Keith Duncan 33 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +4.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:29: Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Culp KICK) — NEB win probability +13.1 pts (now 38%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:05: Rahmir Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK) — NEB win probability +15.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:47: Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +12.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
- FG · Q4 8:21: Keith Duncan 37 yd FG GOOD — IOWA win probability +8.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 3 of 8NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 12:06IOWA 4th & 10 at NEB 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.6% before the snapGo for it79.5%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call79.6%84% to makePunt79.1%−0.4average punt
- Q1 12:06NEB 4th & 22 at NEB 25, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snapGo for it20.0%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.2%average punt
- Q1 9:53IOWA 4th & 8 at NEB 37, up 3Close callPunted · 79.2% before the snapGo for it79.3%35% to convertField goal79.2%−<0.140% to makePuntTheir call79.2%−0.1average punt
- Q1 7:08NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 35, down 3Close callPunted · 21.0% before the snapGo for it21.2%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.1%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00NEB 4th & 1 at IOWA 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.2%71% to convertField goal19.4%−0.862% to makePunt17.4%−2.9average punt
- Q2 12:35NEB 4th & 5 at IOWA 13, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.9% before the snapGo for it19.6%−0.139% to convertField goalTheir call19.7%85% to makePunt16.8%−2.9average punt
- Q2 9:42NEB 4th & 11 at IOWA 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.7% before the snapGo for it19.8%−0.825% to convertField goalTheir call20.6%75% to makePunt17.0%−3.6average punt
- Q2 3:48IOWA 4th & 3 at NEB 15, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snapGo for it75.9%51% to convertField goalTheir call75.5%−0.383% to makePunt72.3%−3.6average punt
- Q3 12:05IOWA 4th & 2 at NEB 16, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call55.1%56% to convertField goal53.7%−1.481% to makePunt43.1%−12.0average punt
- Q3 5:47NEB 4th & 6 at NEB 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it33.8%−1.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.0%average punt
- Q4 14:55IOWA 4th & 5 at NEB 30, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 66.0% before the snapGo for it65.9%41% to convertField goalTheir call65.7%−0.256% to makePunt63.1%−2.7average punt
- Q4 14:55NEB 4th & 8 at IOWA 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snapGo for it29.2%−0.334% to convertField goal27.3%−2.125% to makePuntTheir call29.5%average punt
- Q4 11:45IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 19, up 3Close callPunted · 71.7% before the snapGo for it71.9%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.6%−0.2average punt
- Q4 8:21IOWA 4th & 7 at NEB 19, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.6% before the snapGo for it74.1%−1.435% to convertField goalTheir call75.5%77% to makePunt60.2%−15.3average punt
- Q4 8:21NEB 4th & 15 at NEB 28, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it14.6%−2.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.9%average punt
- Q4 2:02IOWA 4th & 2 at NEB 32, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snapGo for it93.0%57% to convertField goalTheir call91.9%−1.051% to makePunt90.8%−2.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NEB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 1:09IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.9%97% to makeGo for two80.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:29NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.7%97% to makeGo for two27.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:05NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.6%97% to makeGo for two44.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:47IOWA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call63.5%97% to makeGo for two63.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartIOWADrive 1FG8 plays · 54 yds · 2:5478% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
78.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 4 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+22
78.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 22 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+28
78.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 14 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul (14 Yards) to the Neb 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 12:06
2ND & 5
OWN 42
-7
77.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 35Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 12
OWN 35
-10
77.9%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Seth Benson for a loss of 10 yards to the Neb 25Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 22
OWN 25
+8
78.0%
William Przystup punt for 39 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 8 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 9:53
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+18
77.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 18 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+7
77.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Oliver Martin for 7 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+3
77.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 3 yds to the Neb 35Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+31
77.2%
William Przystup punt for 42 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 31 yds to the Neb 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5TD6 plays · 46 yds · 2:5377% → 80%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
77.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 13 yds to the Neb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+14
77.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 14 yds to the Neb 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+4
77.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 4 yds to the Neb 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
79.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 6 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6FG12 plays · 62 yds · 3:3421% → 23%
IOWADrive 7INT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
NEBDrive 8FG6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0224% → 26%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
76.5%
Luke McCaffrey pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 5 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9FG16 plays · 55 yds · 5:5475% → 79%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
74.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 9 yds to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 12
OPP 49
+16
75.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 16 yds Ihmir Smith-Marsette fumbled, forced by JoJo Domann, recovered by Iowa Ihmir Smith-Marsette for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-15
76.5%
Sargent,Mekhi rush R for no gain to the NEB29 (Rogers, Casey), PENALTY IOWA clipping (53) 15 yards to the NEB44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+11
75.7%
[SG], Petras,Spencer pass incomplete to LaPorta,Sam, PENALTY NEB pass interference (Williams, D.) 11 yards to the NEB22, 1ST DOWN IOWA, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:1922% → 38%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
77.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 21 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Neb Adrian MartinezSimilar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+28
79.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 28 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+22
77.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 22 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-19
75.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 19 yards to the Iowa 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Neb Adrian Martinez NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 23
OPP 39
+23
78.9%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 23 yds to the Iowa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11END OF HALF7 plays · 11 yds · 0:1971% → 72%
Q2 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
70.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 11 yds to the Iowa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
71.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 2
50
-8
71.6%
Spencer Petras sacked by Casey Rogers for a loss of 8 yards to the Iowa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12TD9 plays · 70 yds · 2:5534% → 53%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
64.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 4 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
63.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 4 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+13
63.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Levi Falck for 13 yds to the Iowa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
62.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 15 yds to the Iowa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13TD15 plays · 66 yds · 6:1853% → 70%
Q3 12:05
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+16
53.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 16 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+5
54.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 5 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
57.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 5 yds to the Neb 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
62.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 4 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-1
62.3%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Daviyon Nixon for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 24Similar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
65.2%
William Przystup punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 15FG8 plays · 30 yds · 4:0367% → 71%
Q3 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+10
68.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 10 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Levi Falck for 9 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
68.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 14 yds to the Iowa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
65.5%
[SG], Martinez, A. rush right for no gain to the IOWA47, out-of-bounds (Hankins,Matt), PENALTY NEB holding (Benhart, Bryce) 10 yards to the NEB43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 20
OWN 43
-2
69.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 41Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 22
OWN 41
+5
69.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 5 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+9
70.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Kade Warner for 9 yds to the Iowa 45Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
70.0%
William Przystup punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q4 11:45
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
71.0%
Tory Taylor punt for 46 yds , Cam Taylor-Britt returns for no gain to the Neb 38 Cam Taylor-Britt fumbled, recovered by Iowa Terry RobertsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18FG6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5478% → 86%
NEBDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 7 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q4 8:21
4TH & 15
OWN 28
0
80.4%
William Przystup punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20MISSED FG11 plays · 33 yds · 3:3588% → 94%
Q4 5:37
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+15
88.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 15 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 21FUMBLE4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0014% → 18%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
86.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 5 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
84.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Wan'Dale Robinson for 18 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
82.3%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Chauncey Golston for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 48 Adrian Martinez fumbled, recovered by Iowa Zach VanValkenburg , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22END OF GAME4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0296% → 95%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:05
Rahmir Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q2 0:29
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Connor Culp KICK)
-13.1
TD · Q3 5:47
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
+12