Try the model
NU

Northwestern 20 at Michigan State 29

MSU
2020 · Week 13 · Nov 28, 2020 · Spartan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 14:10 · Bryce Baringer punt for 37 yds, downed at the Nwest 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior−34.9Home team on offense+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:55: Jayden Reed 15 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick) — MSU win probability +9.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:39: Peyton Ramsey 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +13.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:54: Cam Porter 3 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick) — NU win probability +20.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:11: Matt Coghlin 44 Yd Field Goal — MSU win probability +11.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 3:35: Matt Coghlin 48 Yd Field Goal — MSU win probability +18.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 9NU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 14:10MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15NU 4th & 1 at MSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.1%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    77.7%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:24NU 4th & 4 at MSU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    74.8%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    74.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:06MSU 4th & 4 at NU 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.6%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    25.4%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:39NU 4th & 2 at NU 36, down 10
    Close callPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:32NU 4th & 2 at MSU 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    51.2%−3.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    50.5%−3.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:02NU 4th & 3 at MSU 24, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 51.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%−1.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−11.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:20MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:35NU 4th & 7 at MSU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:59MSU 4th & 10 at NU 32, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    54.5%−2.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:39NU 4th & 1 at MSU 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−3.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−12.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:59MSU 4th & 6 at NU 39, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−1.7
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:04NU 4th & 5 at NU 48, down 4
    Close callPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:28MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 14, up 4
    Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:11MSU 4th & 11 at NU 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−4.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−13.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:22NU 4th & 4 at NU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.9
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:54MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:35MSU 4th & 3 at NU 31, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.3%−4.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−11.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:57NU 4th & 10 at NU 22, down 3
    Close callPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:34MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:55MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:39NU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:54NU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:4115% → 15%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
14.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
15.0%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
15.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 14:10
4TH & 8
OWN 23
0
15.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 37 yds, downed at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:4885% → 84%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
15.3%
Drake Anderson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+5
15.4%
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
15.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 20 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
15.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 9 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 1
OPP 18
-1
15.9%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 11:56
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
16.1%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd to the MchSt 18Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-1
16.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
2 plays · 81 yds · 0:3517% → 18%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
16.7%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+75
18.0%
Jalen Nailor 75 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4INT
7 plays · 23 yds · 1:5782% → 81%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
17.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 5 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+12
18.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 12 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
18.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for 6 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 4
OPP 42
0
18.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 4
OPP 42
0
18.8%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 8:24
4TH & 4
OPP 42
-54
19.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass intercepted Shakur Brown return for 54 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1320% → 21%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
20.3%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
20.7%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
21.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
20.9%
Matt Coghlin 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1679% → 78%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
20.8%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
20.9%
Drake Anderson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
21.2%
Drake Anderson run for no gain to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
22.0%
Derek Adams punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 5:4023% → 37%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
22.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
22.6%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 4:54
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+9
23.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 9 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
24.0%
Heyward, Connor rush for 3 yards to the MICHIGANST33, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 10 yards to the MICHIGANST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+8
24.1%
Connor Heyward run for 8 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+10
24.6%
Connor Heyward run for 10 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 2:49
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+4
25.4%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
26.1%
Elijah Collins run for 13 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
26.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
26.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+15
26.2%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Foster, Montorie, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN pass interference 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
27.0%
Rocky Lombardi run for 10 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
27.6%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+1
28.3%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the Nwest 15Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+15
37.4%
Jayden Reed 15 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8FG
16 plays · 51 yds · 3:4864% → 64%
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
36.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
36.9%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
38.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for no gain to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
39.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+24
39.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 24 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
38.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Isaiah BowserSimilar
Q2 13:04
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
38.7%
Riley Lees run for 3 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 12:38
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
39.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+5
40.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+5
39.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 5 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
39.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+4
39.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 3
OPP 24
0
41.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:02
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+42
36.3%
Charlie Kuhbander 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:3840% → 45%
Q2 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.6%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 10:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
40.4%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
40.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 15 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.8%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
43.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
44.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
45.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 11 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 42 yds · 1:4057% → 58%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
43.2%
Drake Anderson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
42.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+19
43.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 19 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
42.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
42.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q2 7:20
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+15
44.4%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Lees, Riley, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference 15 yards to the MICHIGANST17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
42.5%
Drake Anderson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
43.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q2 6:38
3RD & 7
OPP 14
0
44.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q2 6:35
4TH & 7
OPP 14
+32
42.1%
Charlie Kuhbander 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11MISSED FG
17 plays · 55 yds · 5:2544% → 54%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
43.9%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+12
44.8%
Connor Heyward run for 12 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
45.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 7 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+6
46.9%
Connor Heyward run for 6 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
48.2%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 14
OWN 37
-1
49.1%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+21
50.2%
Rocky Lombardi run for 21 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
53.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
53.7%
Connor Heyward run for 9 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
54.3%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-3
56.1%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 13
OPP 35
0
55.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 13
OPP 35
+3
54.7%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
54.0%
Matt Coghlin 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:4045% → 45%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
54.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+9
55.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 9 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
54.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 9 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+3
51.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 3 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
52.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
53.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-8
54.7%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Drew Beesley for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1448% → 59%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
52.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 16 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+27
51.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 27 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-4
49.1%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Antjuan Simmons for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 14
OPP 36
+7
52.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for 7 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 13:16
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+12
52.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 12 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
50.6%
Riley Lees pass complete to Andrew Marty for 12 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
51.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q3 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
51.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
41.1%
Peyton Ramsey 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:3646% → 50%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.5%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
46.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
46.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 4 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+21
48.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 21 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
51.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 7:49
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+5
51.7%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
52.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
50.3%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5052% → 51%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
47.7%
Drake Anderson run for 8 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
46.5%
Drake Anderson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
47.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
48.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+7
45.9%
Drake Anderson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
46.5%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Dashaun Mallory for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+8
49.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 8 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
46.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Berkeley HolmanSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
49.5%
Derek Adams punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3253% → 52%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
52.7%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 9
+5
53.1%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 2
OWN 14
0
52.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the MchSt 14Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 2
OWN 14
+23
52.0%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 38 yds, downed at the MICHIGANST 48 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 37 yds · 3:2953% → 73%
Q3 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
46.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for 4 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-1
45.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+11
48.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 11 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
46.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for no gain to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-2
47.2%
Peyton Ramsey run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 12
OPP 25
+20
51.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 20 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
47.6%
Peyton Ramsey run for 2 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 13:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.3%
Cam Porter 3 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:3035% → 37%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
38.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 13:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
36.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Paddy Fisher return for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19FUMBLE
1 play · -7 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-7
29.0%
Kyric McGowan run for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 47 Kyric McGowan fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jack CamperSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:5940% → 48%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
39.9%
Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+1
39.6%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+20
39.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 20 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
43.0%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 9
OPP 24
-2
42.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 11
OPP 26
0
37.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q4 10:11
4TH & 11
OPP 26
+44
48.4%
Matt Coghlin 44 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3856% → 52%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
43.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Drake Anderson for 3 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
43.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+3
45.8%
Peyton Ramsey run for 3 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+4
47.7%
Derek Adams punt for 49 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 4 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2450% → 48%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
50.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+4
50.4%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 7:06
3RD & 4
OWN 27
0
49.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 6:54
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
47.5%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 44 yds, downed at the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2855% → 54%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
44.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
43.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q4 6:22
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
46.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass intercepted Shakur Brown return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4357% → 77%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
50
0
57.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
50
0
56.7%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:33
3RD & 10
50
+12
53.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 12 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
59.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
58.9%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 4
OPP 32
+1
59.2%
Rocky Lombardi run for 1 yd to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 3:35
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+48
77.2%
Matt Coghlin 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2834% → 27%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
66.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
67.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
69.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
72.7%
Derek Adams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:3783% → 90%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
82.8%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
86.0%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+10
85.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for 10 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
88.1%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 8
50
-1
89.3%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+1
90.1%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27Uncategorized
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0511% → 10%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-10
89.2%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by TEAM for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 9 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Peyton Ramsey) to the Nwest 9Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 20
OWN 9
0
89.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:54
Cam Porter 3 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
-20.3
FG · Q4 3:35
Matt Coghlin 48 Yd Field Goal
+18
TD · Q3 10:39
Peyton Ramsey 1 Yd Run (Charlie Kuhbander Kick)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com