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IOWA

Iowa 41 at Penn State 21

PSU
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Beaver Stadium
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Win probability · PSU
modelPSU aheadIOWA aheadconfidence bandkey playPSU scoreIOWA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:45 · Jordan Stout punt for 52 yds , Charlie Jones returns for no gain to the Iowa 26 IOWA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Iowa 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 117Home team on offense−31.3Score differential−19.2Garbage-time factor−10.3Pregame prior+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:34: Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +9.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +13.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:45: Spencer Petras run for 3 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK) — IOWA win probability +15.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:01: Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 28 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar PAT BLOCKED) — PSU win probability +12.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:07: Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 68 yds for a TD (Sean Clifford pass to Keyvone Lee for Two-Point Conversion) — PSU win probability +18.2 pts (now 26%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00PSU 4th & 10 at PSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:23IOWA 4th & 9 at PSU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.3%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:35PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:14IOWA 4th & 9 at IOWA 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:34PSU 4th & 1 at IOWA 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    39.7%−2.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    39.8%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:16IOWA 4th & 23 at IOWA 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:43PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.0%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00IOWA 4th & 26 at IOWA 9, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.7%−3.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:45PSU 4th & 9 at PSU 26, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:18IOWA 4th & 7 at PSU 32, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.6%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    91.6%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:14IOWA 4th & 5 at PSU 6, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.1%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    76.1%−9.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:14PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:04IOWA 4th & 6 at IOWA 17, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:58PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 47, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3IOWA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 2:12PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:35IOWA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:34IOWA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:11IOWA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:45IOWA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:01PSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    12.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:07PSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:58IOWA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.0%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-6
59.0%
Devyn Ford run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+13
59.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Parker Washington for 13 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
59.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Devyn Ford for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
59.0%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-5
59.0%
PENN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
59.0%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Devyn FordSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+5
59.0%
Jordan Stout punt for 37 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 5 yds to the Iowa 41 IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Iowa 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 2FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 3:2241% → 42%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
59.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 5 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-3
59.0%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Iowa 24Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+16
59.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 16 yds to the Iowa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
58.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 11 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+25
58.7%
Tyler Goodson run for 25 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
58.6%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+1
58.7%
Tyrone Tracy Jr. run for 1 yd to the PnSt 23Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 9
OPP 23
0
58.8%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 9
OPP 23
+40
58.4%
Keith Duncan 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:1158% → 62%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.4%
Will Levis run for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
58.9%
Will Levis run for 3 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
58.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+2
59.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
58.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 5 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
59.1%
Will Levis run for 4 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+7
59.2%
Will Levis run for 7 yds to the Iowa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
59.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Theo Johnson for 10 yds to the Iowa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
59.5%
Will Levis pass complete to Theo Johnson for 4 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+6
59.5%
Will Levis run for 6 yds to the Iowa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
59.5%
Will Levis run for 5 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-1
59.5%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 17Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+11
59.2%
Will Levis run for 11 yds to the Iowa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
62.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3739% → 46%
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
60.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 12 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
60.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 16 yds to the PnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
59.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 6 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+8
59.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 8 yds to the PnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+28
58.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 28 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
58.6%
Petras,Spencer rush for loss of 91 yards to the IOWA4 (Mustipher, PJ), PENALTY IOWA illegal formation 5 yards to the PSU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
54.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 10 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
56.8%
Caziah Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
56.7%
Caziah Holmes run for 5 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
56.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Parker Washington PENN ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:35
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
55.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 48 yds , Charlie Jones returns for no gain to the Iowa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
56.1%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 22Similar
Q2 13:14
2ND & 11
OWN 22
0
56.2%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Shaun Beyer, broken up by Jaquan BriskerSimilar
Q2 13:14
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+2
56.9%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the Iowa 24Similar
Q2 13:14
4TH & 9
OWN 24
0
57.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 47 yds, downed at the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:0057% → 58%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
56.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 11 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
58.0%
Will Levis run for 5 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
58.3%
Will Levis run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-8
57.9%
Will Levis run for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 41 Will Levis fumbled, recovered by Iowa Zach VanValkenburgSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 8TD
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:2447% → 57%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
53.5%
Mekhi Sargent run for 5 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+3
53.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+2
53.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Monte Pottebaum for 2 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
53.0%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-10
53.0%
Petras,Spencer pass complete to Ragaini,Nico for 3 yards to the PSU28 (Wade, Lamont;Brooks, Ellis), PENALTY IOWA holding (Smith-Marsette) 10 yards to the PSU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 20
OPP 41
+26
54.2%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 26 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
52.8%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 2 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+12
52.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 12 yds to the PnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0044% → 45%
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
44.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
44.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 22 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
46.3%
Will Levis run for 4 yds to the Iowa 44Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
46.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 4 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
46.2%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the Iowa 39Similar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-1
45.0%
Will Levis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
41.7%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
42.0%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 36Similar
Q2 4:16
3RD & 14
OWN 36
-9
44.0%
Spencer Petras sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 9 yards to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 4:16
4TH & 23
OWN 27
0
44.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:5642% → 40%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
41.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 5 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+7
42.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Brenton Strange for 7 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
42.9%
Will Levis sacked by Jack Heflin for a loss of 5 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+14
38.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 1
50
-1
41.3%
Caziah Holmes run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
40.0%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 12TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 0:4263% → 78%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
37.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 8 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+18
37.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 18 yds to the PnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
37.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyler Goodson for 8 yds to the PnSt 15Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+7
37.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 7 yds to the PnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
37.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ihmir Smith-Marsette for 7 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
35.9%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
29.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
26.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
26.5%
Spencer Petras sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 10 yards to the Iowa 19 Spencer Petras fumbled, recovered by Iowa Spencer Petras , return for 0 yards IOWA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-10
27.4%
Spencer Petras sacked by Adisa Isaac for a loss of 10 yards to the Iowa 9Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 9
+15
27.8%
Tory Taylor punt for 46 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 15 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
28.3%
Will Levis sacked by Dane Belton for a loss of 6 yards to the Iowa 46 Will Levis fumbled, recovered by Iowa Zach VanValkenburg , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 16TD
14 plays · 54 yds · 6:1377% → 94%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
22.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 8 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+3
22.3%
Spencer Petras run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-4
22.7%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 14
OPP 47
+10
23.0%
Petras,Spencer pass incomplete to Goodson,Tyler, PENALTY PSU holding (Ellis, Keaton) 10 yards to the PSU37, 1ST DOWN IOWA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
22.7%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 9 yds to the PnSt 28Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 1
OPP 28
-1
22.1%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+7
22.6%
Mekhi Sargent run for 7 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
22.1%
IOWA Penalty, false start (Mark Kallenberger) to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+11
22.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 11 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+1
22.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd to the PnSt 15Similar
Q3 12:58
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+4
22.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 4 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
22.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 9 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 1
OPP 2
-1
22.1%
Mekhi Sargent run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 3Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
6.4%
Spencer Petras run for 3 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.0%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
8.1%
Caziah Holmes run for no gain to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
8.0%
Will Levis sacked by Jack Campbell for 0 yards to the PnSt 26 Will Levis fumbled, recovered by PnSt Caziah Holmes , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
7.9%
Jordan Stout punt for 52 yds , Charlie Jones returns for no gain to the Iowa 26 IOWA Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Iowa 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 18 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+15
5.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 15 yds to the Iowa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
5.3%
Spencer Petras run for no gain to the Iowa 28 Spencer Petras fumbled, recovered by PnSt Lamont Wade , return for 2 yds to the Iowa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
1 play · 28 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
17.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 28 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:4389% → 93%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
11.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 12 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
10.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 17 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
10.4%
Mekhi Sargent run for 9 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
10.1%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Tyrone Tracy Jr.Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
10.3%
Spencer Petras run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
10.3%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
10.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+2
10.5%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
7.5%
Keith Duncan 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21TD
1 play · 68 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+68
25.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 68 yds for a TD (Sean Clifford pass to Keyvone Lee for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
26.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 10 yds to the Iowa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
25.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
24.0%
Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
23.7%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
24.1%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brandon Smith, broken up by Joey Porter Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+4
25.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 4 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
26.3%
Tory Taylor punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
20.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
20.5%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+6
19.7%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the PnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
20.9%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+1
20.7%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Chauncey Golston return for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 24FG
6 plays · 17 yds · 2:2886% → 92%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
14.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 9 yds to the PnSt 14Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
14.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the PnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
14.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the PnSt 10Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+4
14.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 6Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
14.9%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
7.7%
Keith Duncan 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
10.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 7 yds to the PnSt 32Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
11.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 1 yd to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
11.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Daniel George for 4 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
11.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
12.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 2 yds to the PnSt 42Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+8
11.7%
Sean Clifford run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
50
0
12.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brandon SmithSimilar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
50
-7
12.2%
Sean Clifford sacked by Chauncey Golston for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
10.2%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone LeeSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
10.0%
Jordan Stout punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:1596% → 96%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
4.2%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 15Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+2
3.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the Iowa 17Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
4.0%
Tyler Goodson run for no gain to the Iowa 17Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 6
OWN 17
+17
3.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 43 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 17 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27INT TD
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:556% → 1%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
5.5%
Sean Clifford sacked by Daviyon Nixon for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 44Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+18
5.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 18 yds to the Iowa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
7.3%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-71
0.9%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted for a TD Daviyon Nixon return for 71 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28END OF GAME
11 plays · 47 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.7%
Clifford, Sean pass incomplete to Johnson, Theo, PENALTY IOWA offside defense (Belton,Dane) 5 yards to the PSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 5
OWN 30
-1
0.7%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
0.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 12 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
0.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 6 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
0.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 4
OWN 47
+14
0.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 14 yds to the Iowa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
0.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 8 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 2
OPP 31
0
0.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone Lee, broken up by Noah ShannonSimilar
Q4 1:58
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
0.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Caziah Holmes for 3 yds to the Iowa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:07
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 68 yds for a TD (Sean Clifford pass to Keyvone Lee for Two-Point Conversion)
+18.2
TD · Q3 6:45
Spencer Petras run for 3 yds for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q2 0:11
Mekhi Sargent run for 1 yd for a TD (Keith Duncan KICK)
-13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com