Try the model
WIS

Wisconsin 7 at Northwestern 17

NU
2020 · Week 12 · Nov 21, 2020 · Ryan Field
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:10 · Derek Adams punt for 43 yds, downed at the Wisc 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior−9.6Home team on offense+6.8Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score differential+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 5:05: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Cam Porter for 10 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST down — NU win probability +6.1 pts (now 44%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 2:08: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Drake Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 26 — NU win probability +6.1 pts (now 46%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:56: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 25 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +13.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:04: Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 3 yds to the Nwest 23 — NU win probability +5.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 13:24: Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete — NU win probability +7.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13WIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:31WIS 4th & 16 at WIS 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:53WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:45NU 4th & 6 at NU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:12NU 4th & 5 at WIS 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.6%
    62% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:16WIS 4th & 3 at NU 36, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−1.0
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:17NU 4th & 6 at NU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:38NU 4th & 8 at NU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.8%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:10NU 4th & 8 at NU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:08WIS 4th & 3 at WIS 36, down 7
    Close callPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:22NU 4th & 9 at NU 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%−3.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:45WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:45NU 4th & 4 at NU 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:52WIS 4th & 10 at WIS 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−2.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:53NU 4th & 8 at NU 4, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%−3.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:10WIS 4th & 20 at NU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−4.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:25NU 4th & 8 at NU 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.3%−2.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:29WIS 4th & 1 at NU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−5.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    16.3%−16.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:28WIS 4th & 6 at NU 23, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−12.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:35NU 4th & 10 at WIS 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−1.9
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    69.3%−11.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:48NU 4th & 7 at WIS 25, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    89.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    84.6%−4.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:04WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:58NU 4th & 1 at NU 42, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−1.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:15WIS 4th & 6 at NU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%−0.6
    42% to make
    Punt
    6.2%−0.6
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:33NU 4th & 15 at NU 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.8%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WIS made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:50NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:14WIS Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:56NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:1569% → 68%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
31.3%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the Wisc 21Similar
Q1 14:18
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
31.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Adam KrumholzSimilar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-6
31.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for a loss of 6 yards to the Wisc 15Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 16
OWN 15
+17
31.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 48 yds , Riley Lees returns for 17 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:4132% → 35%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
32.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (Sam Gerak) to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+12
31.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 12 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+8
32.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 8 yds to the Wisc 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
32.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 15 yds to the Wisc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
32.9%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Raine, John, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Nelson, Scott) 14 yards to the WISCONSIN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q1 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
33.0%
Isaiah Bowser run for 1 yd to the Wisc 1Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
33.3%
Peyton Ramsey run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wisc 5Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
33.4%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Raine, John, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Wildgoose, Rachad) 3 yards to the WISCONSIN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:4666% → 65%
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
34.4%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+10
34.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 10 yds to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
35.4%
Graham Mertz run for 7 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q1 8:53
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
35.4%
Garrett Groshek run for a loss of 5 yards to the Wisc 37 Garrett Groshek fumbled, forced by Paddy Fisher, recovered by Nwest Blake GallagherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 36 yds · 0:2037% → 37%
Q1 8:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+36
36.7%
Riley Lees pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 36 yds to the Wisc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
37.2%
Isaiah Bowser run for no gain Isaiah Bowser fumbled, forced by Keeanu Benton, recovered by Wisc Spencer LytleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 3:0364% → 66%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
36.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 17 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
36.7%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the Wisc 37Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
37.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 2 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+7
37.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+5
38.0%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
34.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 49 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:2335% → 36%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
35.4%
Kyric McGowan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 24Similar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
35.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 9 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 4:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
35.8%
Drake Anderson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
36.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
37.1%
Drake Anderson run for no gain to the Nwest 41Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
36.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
Q1 2:45
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
36.1%
Derek Adams punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0664% → 64%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
36.2%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Kayden Lyles) to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 2:37
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+4
36.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 4 yds to the Wisc 16Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
36.3%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the Wisc 16Similar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+24
37.0%
Graham Mertz run for 24 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-8
36.1%
Graham Mertz sacked by Blake Gallagher for a loss of 8 yards to the Wisc 32 Graham Mertz fumbled, forced by Blake Gallagher, recovered by Nwest Trevor Kent , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1940% → 40%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
40.4%
Cam Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 33Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 11
OPP 33
0
40.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+6
39.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for 6 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+45
39.7%
Charlie Kuhbander 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 3:4962% → 62%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
37.6%
Jalen Berger run for 11 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
37.1%
Jalen Berger run for 8 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+11
36.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 11 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
36.7%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+7
36.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 7 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-2
37.1%
Graham Mertz sacked by Eku Leota for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
38.5%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 24 yds, downed at the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:4841% → 41%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
41.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 4 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+15
41.3%
Ramsey, Peyton pass pass intercepted by Williams, Caesar at the NORTHWSTRN42, Williams, Caesar return 0 yards to the NORTHWSTRN42, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Williams, Caesar) 15 yards to the NORTHWSTRN31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
41.9%
Drake Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 30Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 11
OWN 30
0
41.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+5
40.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Evan Hull for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
41.4%
Derek Adams punt for 43 yds, downed at the Wisc 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11INT
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:0061% → 63%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
39.2%
Jalen Berger run for 17 yds to the Wisc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
37.8%
Mason Stokke run for no gain to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
38.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Garrett GroshekSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+13
39.2%
Garrett Groshek run for 13 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
37.2%
Jalen Berger run for 9 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+3
37.3%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
37.5%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Brandon Joseph return for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:2744% → 43%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Cam Porter for 10 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
44.1%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
44.7%
Kyric McGowan run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
44.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, broken up by Rachad WildgooseSimilar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
43.0%
Derek Adams punt for 26 yds, downed at the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:1860% → 60%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
39.8%
Jalen Berger run for 10 yds to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
38.3%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
38.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-1
39.8%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Brandon Joseph return for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 1:1246% → 61%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
45.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Drake Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+12
44.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 12 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
46.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Drake Anderson for 6 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+14
47.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 14 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
48.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 1 yd to the Wisc 41Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+16
48.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 16 yds to the Wisc 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
61.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 25 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15END OF HALF
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:4642% → 45%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
57.7%
Garrett Groshek run for 4 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+9
56.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 9 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
56.0%
Graham Mertz pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
57.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 10 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
54.7%
Mertz, Graham rush for 13 yards to the NORTHWSTRN29, PENALTY WISCONSIN holding (Lyles, Kayden) 10 yards to the WISCONSIN48, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3958% → 56%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
58.4%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
59.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q3 14:20
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
57.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
56.2%
Derek Adams punt for 43 yds, downed at the Wisc 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:5743% → 41%
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
56.9%
Jalen Berger run for 11 yds to the Wisc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
57.1%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+3
56.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 3 yds to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
57.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Mason Stokke, broken up by Chris BerginSimilar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
59.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3960% → 58%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
60.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
59.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 1 yd to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
59.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
58.2%
Derek Adams punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3142% → 39%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
57.7%
Jalen Berger run for 5 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 10:37
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
56.9%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 9:53
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
58.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Garrett GroshekSimilar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
61.1%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5264% → 62%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
63.9%
Peyton Ramsey run for 5 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
64.4%
Peyton Ramsey run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q3 8:52
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
63.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Riley Lees, broken up by Faion HicksSimilar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
62.2%
Derek Adams punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5040% → 36%
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
59.6%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jake FergusonSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
60.2%
Jack Dunn run for no gain to the Wisc 42Similar
Q3 7:59
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
61.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Nakia Watson, broken up by Greg Newsome IISimilar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
63.6%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 56 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5366% → 65%
Q3 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
66.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+2
66.3%
Cam Porter run for 2 yds to the Nwest 4Similar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
65.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 8
OWN 4
0
64.8%
Derek Adams punt for 48 yds , Dean Engram returns for no gain to the Wisc 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 2:3540% → 33%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
59.7%
Nakia Watson run for 13 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-8
59.5%
Adam Krumholz run for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 47 Adam Krumholz fumbled, recovered by Wisc Jake FergusonSimilar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 18
OPP 47
+3
62.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 3 yds to the Nwest 44Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 15
OPP 44
-5
64.9%
Garrett Groshek run for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & 20
OPP 49
0
67.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4069% → 67%
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
69.4%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
69.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
Q3 3:32
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
68.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Kyric McGowanSimilar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 8
OWN 15
0
67.3%
Derek Adams punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dean Engram at the Wisc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 20 yds · 4:5037% → 27%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
62.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 15 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
62.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Tyler Beach) to the Nwest 43Similar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+1
64.6%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 14
OPP 42
+11
65.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Stephan Bracey for 11 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
65.1%
Mason Stokke run for 2 yds to the Nwest 29Similar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+2
67.4%
Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
63.7%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Nwest 26Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
64.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere Dike, broken up by Greg Newsome IISimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+3
70.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 6
OPP 23
-10
72.9%
Graham Mertz sacked by Cameron Ruiz for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 26FG
10 plays · 53 yds · 1:4980% → 82%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
80.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+1
79.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 1 yd to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 9
OWN 34
+12
79.7%
Ramsey, Peyton pass incomplete to Raine, John, PENALTY WISCONSIN pass interference (Burrell, Eric) 12 yards to the NORTHWSTRN46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NORTHWSTRN.Similar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
82.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 21 yds to the Wisc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
83.5%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Malik Washington for 6 yds to the Wisc 27Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+13
83.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 13 yds to the Wisc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
84.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
84.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
82.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Riley Lees, broken up by Scott NelsonSimilar
Q4 11:35
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+32
82.2%
Charlie Kuhbander 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 27INT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3018% → 12%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
82.5%
Jalen Berger run for 7 yds to the Wisc 22Similar
Q4 10:41
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+2
81.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Mason Stokke for 2 yds to the Wisc 24Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 1
OWN 24
+4
85.2%
Nakia Watson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
85.6%
Nakia Watson run for 2 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
85.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 8:49
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
87.7%
Graham Mertz pass intercepted Greg Newsome II return for no gain to the Wisc 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:5788% → 89%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
87.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
87.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+18
87.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 18 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-BowmanSimilar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
89.2%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Cam Porter for 2 yds to the Wisc 26Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+1
89.1%
Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the Wisc 25Similar
Q4 6:48
4TH & 7
OPP 25
0
88.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Riley LeesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3910% → 9%
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Stephan BraceySimilar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
89.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 6 yds to the Wisc 31Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
89.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
90.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 30FUMBLE
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5890% → 92%
Q4 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
90.3%
Drake Anderson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 5:14
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
90.5%
Drake Anderson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
92.1%
Peyton Ramsey run for 4 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
92.3%
Derek Adams punt for 39 yds , Dean Engram returns for 2 yds to the Wisc 21 Dean Engram fumbled, recovered by Wisc Alexander SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 31DOWNS
9 plays · 43 yds · 2:436% → 4%
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
94.1%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Jon Dietzen) to the Wisc 16Similar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+9
94.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 9 yds to the Wisc 25Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+23
94.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Adam Krumholz for 23 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
93.6%
Graham Mertz run for no gain to the Wisc 48Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
94.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 12 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Chimere DikeSimilar
Q4 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
95.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Adam Krumholz for 7 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-3
95.2%
Garrett Groshek run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 6
OPP 36
0
95.9%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jack EschenbachSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 32PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:3995% → 97%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
95.3%
Drake Anderson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+4
96.0%
Peyton Ramsey run for 4 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-10
96.6%
Peyton Ramsey sacked by Jack Sanborn for a loss of 10 yards to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 15
OWN 31
+5
96.9%
Derek Adams punt for 37 yds , Dean Engram returns for 5 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 33END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:193% → 4%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
96.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Stephan BraceySimilar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+17
96.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Adam Krumholz for 17 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
96.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Eschenbach for 5 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:56
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 25 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+13.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:24
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete
+7.1
KEY PLAY · Q2 5:05
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Cam Porter for 10 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST down
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com