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WIS

Wisconsin 49 at Michigan 11

MICH
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadWIS aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreWIS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:04 · Andy Vujnovich punt for 34 yds, downed at the Mich 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Home team on offense−37.0Score differential−30.0Pregame prior−8.2Garbage-time factor−11.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:28: Nakia Watson 2 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +1.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 6:08: Mason Stokke 1 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +2.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 14:54: Mason Stokke 1 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +7.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 12:52: Quinn Nordin 46 Yd Field Goal — WIS win probability +3.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:00: Mike Sainristil 23 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Cade McNamara Pass to Giles Jackson for Two-Point Conversion) — MICH win probability +3.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WIS made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:08WIS 4th & 6 at MICH 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:30MICH 4th & 8 at MICH 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:07MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:34MICH 4th & 1 at WIS 1, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:57WIS 4th & 5 at WIS 39, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:52MICH 4th & 10 at WIS 28, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%
    60% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:04WIS 4th & 3 at MICH 38, up 25
    Close callPunted · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.7
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:24MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 7, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:08MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 25, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:34MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 35, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 0 of 1WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:28WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:08WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:07WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:45WIS Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:00MICH Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:36WIS Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 7:34WIS Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WISDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 18 yds · 3:4469% → 68%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
30.6%
Nakia Watson run for 9 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & 1
OWN 43
-5
30.8%
Watson, Nakia rush for no gain to the WISCONSIN43, PENALTY WISCONSIN illegal shift 5 yards to the WISCONSIN38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
30.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jalen Berger for 5 yds to the Wisc 43Similar
Q1 13:05
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+5
31.2%
Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
31.4%
Mertz, Graham rush for 2 yards to the 50 yardline, PENALTY MICHIGAN holding off-setting, PENALTY WISCONSIN Holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
31.6%
Nakia Watson run for 4 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
31.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
31.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Jalen BergerSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
32.1%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
32.3%
Joe Milton pass intercepted Scott Nelson return for no gain to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 3TD
4 plays · 33 yds · 1:2768% → 69%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
31.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+30
31.8%
Chimere Dike run for 30 yds to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
32.0%
Mason Stokke run for 1 yd to the Mich 2Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.6%
Nakia Watson 2 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4INT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3332% → 31%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
31.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 9:13
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-3
31.3%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 18
OWN 39
+2
31.2%
Joe Milton run for 2 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 16
OWN 41
-31
31.1%
Joe Milton pass intercepted Leo Chenal return for 31 yds to the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 5TD
4 plays · 14 yds · 1:3170% → 72%
Q1 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
30.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Kendric PryorSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
30.3%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+10
30.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 10 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.6%
Mason Stokke 1 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:3329% → 28%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.8%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
28.6%
A.J. Henning run for no gain to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
28.3%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+9
28.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 42 yds , Danny Davis III returns for 9 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 7TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 4:3173% → 82%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
27.1%
Danny Davis III run for 18 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Adam KrumholzSimilar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
26.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 14 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
26.4%
Jalen Berger run for 3 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+8
26.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jalen Berger for 8 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
26.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 7 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+1
25.7%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the Mich 9Similar
Q1 0:16
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+8
25.7%
Danny Davis III run for 8 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.3%
Mason Stokke 1 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3520% → 19%
Q2 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
20.2%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:37
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
20.0%
Joe Milton run for 2 yds to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+3
19.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 3 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
19.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 41 yds, downed at the Wisc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 9TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:5482% → 84%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
17.8%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Adam KrumholzSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+18
17.8%
Jalen Berger run for 18 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
17.0%
Jalen Berger run for 7 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q2 11:29
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+19
16.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Chimere Dike for 19 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
15.8%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Mich 25Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+15
15.2%
Mertz, Graham pass incomplete to Davis III, Danny, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference (Turner, DJ) 15 yards to the MICHIGAN10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WISCONSIN.Similar
Q2 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
15.9%
Nakia Watson 10 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10DOWNS
15 plays · 74 yds · 5:2815% → 9%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
15.2%
Joe Milton pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 24Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
14.6%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Nick EubanksSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+36
14.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to Giles Jackson for 36 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
16.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 4
OPP 34
-1
16.1%
Joe Milton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+13
15.2%
Joe Milton pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 13 yds to the Wisc 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
16.0%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Blake CorumSimilar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
15.5%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the Wisc 18Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+9
14.5%
Joe Milton run for 9 yds to the Wisc 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
16.5%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Wisc 8Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
15.8%
Joe Milton pass complete to Erick All for 2 yds to the Wisc 6Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
8.6%
Joe Milton run for no gain to the Wisc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 38 yds · 3:2187% → 92%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
12.6%
Graham Mertz run for 3 yds to the Wisc 4Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+6
13.1%
Mason Stokke run for 6 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+4
12.1%
Nakia Watson run for 4 yds to the Wisc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+20
11.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 20 yds to the Wisc 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
8.8%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
8.3%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 12PUNT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0992% → 92%
Q2 1:06
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
8.4%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Wisc 39Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
7.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Giles Jackson at the Mich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:414% → 3%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
3.7%
Joe Milton pass complete to Chris Evans for 11 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
3.7%
Joe Milton sacked by Leo Chenal for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 24Similar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+7
3.2%
Joe Milton run for 7 yds to the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:006% → 4%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
6.0%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 21 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
7.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 12 yds to the Wisc 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
7.8%
Zach Charbonnet run for 14 yds to the Wisc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
7.9%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
7.5%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
7.1%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+46
3.6%
Quinn Nordin 46 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:4196% → 97%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
4.3%
Nakia Watson run for 7 yds to the Wisc 32Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-1
3.9%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 31Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
3.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 6 yds to the Wisc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
3.0%
Nakia Watson run for 18 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
2.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
2.7%
Kendric Pryor run for 7 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 3
OPP 38
0
2.5%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Danny Davis IIISimilar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
2.7%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 34 yds, downed at the Mich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:332% → 2%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
2.0%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Mich 8Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-1
1.8%
Joe Milton pass complete to Erick All for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 7Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
1.7%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
1.6%
Brad Robbins punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Danny Davis III at the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:3398% → 99%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
2.1%
Graham Mertz sacked by Carlo Kemp for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 14
OPP 41
+22
1.9%
Danny Davis III run for 7 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (Brad Hawkins) to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
1.6%
Danny Davis III run for 12 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
1.0%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Mich 13Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
1.0%
Jake Ferguson 13 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:402% → 5%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
1.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 23 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
1.9%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+28
1.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 28 yds to the Wisc 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
5.2%
Mike Sainristil 23 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Cade McNamara Pass to Giles Jackson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 8:1998% → 100%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
2.3%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
2.2%
Jalen Berger run for 1 yd to the Wisc 30Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
2.1%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Nakia WatsonSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
2.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the Wisc 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
2.1%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 36Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
1.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis III for 6 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+18
1.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 18 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
1.6%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+10
1.5%
Danny Davis III run for 10 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
1.4%
Danny Davis III run for 6 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
1.3%
Jalen Berger run for 4 yds to the Mich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
1.2%
Jalen Berger run for no gain to the Mich 16Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+9
1.2%
Jalen Berger run for 9 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q4 10:19
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+3
1.0%
Mason Stokke run for 3 yds to the Mich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.3%
Danny Davis III 4 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:180% → 0%
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q4 9:08
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
0.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 47 yds , Dean Engram returns for no gain to the Wisc 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
3 plays · 72 yds · 1:26100% → 100%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+43
0.3%
John Chenal run for 43 yds to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
0.2%
John Chenal run for 6 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 7:34
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
0.2%
Jalen Berger 23 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:470% → 0%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
0.2%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Ronnie Bell for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 5:34
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds , Dean Engram returns for no gain to the Wisc 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
8 plays · 33 yds · 5:10100% → 100%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.2%
Stephan Bracey run for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
0.2%
John Chenal run for 5 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
0.2%
John Chenal run for 4 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
0.1%
Jalen Berger run for 8 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+9
0.1%
John Chenal run for 9 yds to the Wisc 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
0.1%
John Chenal run for 4 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
0.1%
Jalen Berger run for 2 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 4
OPP 45
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:54
Mason Stokke 1 Yd Run (Collin Larsh Kick)
-7.4
FG · Q3 12:52
Quinn Nordin 46 Yd Field Goal
-3.5
TD · Q3 3:00
Mike Sainristil 23 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Cade McNamara Pass to Giles Jackson for Two-Point Conversion)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com