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IU

Indiana 24 at Michigan State 0

MSU
2020 · Week 11 · Nov 14, 2020 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:27 · Charles Campbell 41 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 86Home team on offense−29.2Pregame prior−11.5Score differential−11.5Garbage-time factor−4.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:11: Stevie Scott III 8 Yd Run (Charles Campbell Kick) — IU win probability +3.4 pts (now 71%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:14: Ty Fryfogle 16 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick) — IU win probability +4.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 9:22: Charles Campbell 21 Yd Field Goal — IU win probability +3.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:27: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 4 yds to the Ind 25 — IU win probability +2.5 pts (now 82%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:40: Stevie Scott III run for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down — IU win probability +3.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 9:17MSU 4th & 5 at IU 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    34.9%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:33IU 4th & 1 at IU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−1.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:22IU 4th & 3 at MSU 3, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%−1.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    68.5%−7.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:36MSU 4th & 17 at IU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:25MSU 4th & 3 at IU 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−1.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:27IU 4th & 6 at MSU 23, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−2.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:46MSU 4th & 6 at MSU 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:33IU 4th & 5 at IU 41, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:07MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 7, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:25IU 4th & 2 at MSU 5, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    93.9%−2.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:49MSU 4th & 1 at IU 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:15MSU 4th & 2 at IU 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    3.7%−0.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:53IU 4th & 3 at MSU 41, up 24
    Close callPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:41IU 4th & 1 at MSU 1, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:34MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 12, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:18IU 4th & 2 at MSU 15, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:11IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:14IU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:56IU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1INT
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:3871% → 70%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
28.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 8 yds to the Ind 33Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
28.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 6 yds to the Ind 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
29.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
50
+3
29.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to David Ellis for 3 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
29.4%
Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 7
OPP 47
-15
29.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Shakur Brown return for 15 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:5130% → 32%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
30.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
30.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+14
30.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 14 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
30.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the Ind 42Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
31.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 4 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q1 9:52
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-3
31.5%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 41 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by MchSt Rocky LombardiSimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
31.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:4469% → 67%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-3
31.4%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (Mackenzie Nworah) to the Ind 2Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 13
OWN 2
0
31.4%
Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the Ind 2Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 13
OWN 2
+1
31.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the Ind 3Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+24
32.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 24 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
32.2%
Sampson James run for 2 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+7
32.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 7 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 1
OWN 36
0
32.3%
Sampson James run for no gain to the Ind 36Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
33.2%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
33.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Tiawan Mullen return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:0868% → 71%
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
50
+18
32.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 18 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
32.2%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 18
OPP 40
+15
33.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 15 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 3:32
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+12
32.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Javon Swinton for 12 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
32.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
32.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to David Ellis for 5 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+8
28.8%
Stevie Scott III 8 Yd Run (Charles Campbell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2630% → 30%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
29.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 7
OWN 17
-1
29.6%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 16 Anthony Williams Jr. fumbled, forced by Thomas Allen, recovered by Ind James Head Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:0972% → 76%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
28.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty Fryfogle, broken up by Dominique LongSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
24.4%
Ty Fryfogle 16 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0225% → 25%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
25.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
25.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jordon Simmons, broken up by Reese TaylorSimilar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 7
OWN 14
-8
24.9%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Jerome Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 6Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 15
OWN 6
0
24.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 45 yds, downed at the Ind 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9INT
7 plays · 36 yds · 3:0076% → 78%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
24.1%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+10
24.0%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 10 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
23.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 9 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 1
OPP 29
-15
23.3%
Penix Jr., Michael pass complete to Hendershot, Peyton for 19 yards to the MICHIGANST10, PENALTY INDIANA personal foul 15 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+27
23.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 27 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
23.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-15
22.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Shakur Brown return for 15 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-2
23.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Tiawan Mullen return for 2 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:1178% → 81%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
22.2%
Sampson James run for 1 yd to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
22.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+19
22.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 19 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
22.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
22.0%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Fryfogle, Ty, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference (Fryfogle, Ty) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+15
22.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 15 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 10:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
21.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 9:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
18.9%
Charles Campbell 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:2921% → 21%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+38
21.0%
Payton Thorne run for 38 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
22.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jahz Watts, broken up by Alfred BryantSimilar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
22.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-2
21.4%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 42Similar
Q2 7:54
4TH & 12
OPP 42
-5
21.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Davion Williams) to the Ind 47Similar
Q2 7:36
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
21.0%
Bryce Baringer punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 2:3182% → 84%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
18.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 4 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+7
17.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 7 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
17.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 4 yds to the Ind 36Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-1
17.0%
Sampson James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 35Similar
Q2 4:56
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+65
15.8%
Ty Fryfogle 65 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:1614% → 14%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
14.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 9 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
15.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed, broken up by Devon MatthewsSimilar
Q2 4:20
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+7
14.6%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the Ind 48 Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by Reese Taylor, recovered by MchSt Jalen Nailor for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
14.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+4
14.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 4 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q2 2:32
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
14.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-6
14.1%
Payton Thorne sacked by Jerome Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 30 yds · 1:4986% → 90%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
13.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 49Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+13
10.3%
Stevie Scott III run for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
9.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 11 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
9.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 4 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
8.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
8.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+41
10.1%
Charles Campbell 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
10.7%
Connor Heyward run for 8 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 3:0711% → 8%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.4%
Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.0%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
11.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
11.3%
Heyward, Connor rush for 8 yards to the MICHIGANST44, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Duplain, J.D.) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 20
OWN 26
-1
10.6%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 12:33
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+15
8.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 15 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
8.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
8.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 56 yds, downed at the Ind 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 4:0593% → 95%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+8
7.0%
Sampson James run for 8 yds to the Ind 12Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 2
OWN 12
+9
6.8%
Sampson James run for 9 yds to the Ind 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
6.5%
Sampson James run for 1 yd to the Ind 22Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+1
6.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 1 yd to the Ind 23Similar
Q3 9:29
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+13
5.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 13 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
4.9%
Sampson James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 34Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 12
OWN 34
0
4.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Stevie Scott IIISimilar
Q3 8:12
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+7
4.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 7 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
4.6%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 42 yds, downed at the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 1:185% → 5%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
5.4%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
5.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-13
5.1%
Payton Thorne sacked by Micah McFadden for a loss of 13 yards to the MchSt 7Similar
Q3 6:07
4TH & 20
OWN 7
0
4.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 21 yds, downed at the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:3797% → 97%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
3.4%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Marshall, Miles, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Henderson, Xavier) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
3.4%
Sampson James run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
3.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+6
2.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 6 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 2
OPP 5
0
2.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to A.J. BarnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:004% → 4%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+17
4.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 17 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+21
4.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 21 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
4.5%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:32
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+6
4.5%
Elijah Collins run for 6 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+3
4.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
4.5%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the Ind 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
4.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Adam BerghorstSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
4.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 9 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 1
OPP 37
-1
4.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 38Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 2
OPP 38
0
4.1%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the Ind 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 3:1198% → 98%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
1.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
1.8%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+9
1.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 9 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
1.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
1.6%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 5 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
1.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q4 12:53
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+36
1.7%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 41 yds for a touchback INDIANA Penalty, Illegal Touching (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 1:153% → 2%
Q4 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
2.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 27 yds to the Ind 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
2.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (AJ Arcuri) to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 15
OWN 47
0
2.6%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 15
OWN 47
-53
2.4%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Reese Taylor return for 53 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4299% → 99%
Q4 11:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
1.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
1.0%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 3Similar
Q4 10:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.0%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
1.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Matt BjorsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:002% → 1%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+14
1.9%
Connor Heyward run for 14 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
1.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed, broken up by Bryant FitzgeraldSimilar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
1.9%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 8:19
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-6
1.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Micah McFadden for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+18
1.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds , Reese Taylor returns for 18 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26Uncategorized
10 plays · 35 yds · 6:3599% → 100%
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
0.8%
Stevie Scott III run for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
0.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+5
0.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+4
0.5%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.5%
Stevie Scott III run for no gain to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+2
0.5%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 8
OPP 21
+6
0.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+3
0.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
0.3%
Sampson James run for 2 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 10
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:14
Ty Fryfogle 16 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Charles Campbell Kick)
-4
TD · Q1 2:11
Stevie Scott III 8 Yd Run (Charles Campbell Kick)
-3.4
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:40
Stevie Scott III run for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST down
-3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com