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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreILL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:41 · Adam Korsak punt for 66 yds, downed at the Illin 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 13:45: Isaiah Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +5.4 pts (now 37%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:43: Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 66 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +11.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:54: Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +18.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- FG · Q4 13:02: James McCourt 23 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +9.8 pts (now 47%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- FG · Q4 0:03: James McCourt 47 yd FG GOOD — ILL win probability +34.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 7ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 13:03RUTG 4th & 3 at ILL 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call65.7%52% to convertField goal65.6%−0.158% to makePunt65.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:22ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snapGo for it32.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.0%average punt
- Q1 8:41RUTG 4th & 3 at RUTG 30, up 7Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snapGo for it67.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 4:33RUTG 4th & 11 at ILL 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snapGo for it67.9%−0.422% to convertField goalTheir call68.3%87% to makePunt66.1%−2.2average punt
- Q2 13:03RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 29, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snapGo for it64.2%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.5%average punt
- Q2 10:46ILL 4th & 9 at RUTG 45, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.232% to convertField goal33.4%−0.925% to makePuntTheir call34.3%average punt
- Q2 9:32RUTG 4th & 12 at RUTG 24, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snapGo for it62.7%−1.422% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.2%average punt
- Q2 8:21ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 34, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snapGo for it33.8%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.4%average punt
- Q2 4:19RUTG 4th & 4 at ILL 8, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 66.7% before the snapGo for it66.5%42% to convertField goalTheir call66.1%−0.490% to makePunt60.8%−5.7average punt
- Q2 3:12ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 33, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snapGo for it29.1%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.7%average punt
- Q3 8:59ILL 4th & 6 at RUTG 6, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snapGo for it30.1%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call30.4%91% to makePunt20.8%−9.6average punt
- Q4 14:53ILL 4th & 1 at RUTG 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call35.4%70% to convertField goal29.4%−6.028% to makePunt30.8%−4.6average punt
- Q4 13:02ILL 4th & 5 at RUTG 5, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snapGo for it33.7%−0.333% to convertField goalTheir call34.0%92% to makePunt21.5%−12.5average punt
- Q4 10:19RUTG 4th & 11 at RUTG 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.1% before the snapGo for it53.3%−5.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call58.4%average punt
- Q4 7:20ILL 4th & 2 at RUTG 36, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 6.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 49.2% before the snapGo for it49.7%57% to convertField goalTheir call43.0%−6.842% to makePunt41.4%−8.4average punt
- Q4 3:07ILL 4th & 5 at RUTG 28, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snapGo for it46.5%41% to convertField goalTheir call46.1%−0.460% to makePunt26.4%−20.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:03RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.2%97% to makeGo for two66.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:45ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.7%97% to makeGo for two34.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:43RUTG Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.8%97% to makeGo for two81.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 4:54ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.7%97% to makeGo for two31.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4267% → 67%
ILLDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 2:2833% → 32%
RUTGDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3668% → 68%
ILLDrive 4FUMBLE3 plays · 17 yds · 0:4132% → 32%
Q1 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+15
68.2%
RUTGERS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Julius Turner) to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
68.2%
Isaiah Williams run for 7 yds to the Illin 29 Isaiah Williams fumbled, forced by Mike Tverdov, recovered by Rutgr Max MeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5FG6 plays · 18 yds · 2:5769% → 70%
Q1 6:50
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+26
69.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 26 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
69.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 7Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
69.6%
Noah Vedral sacked by Jake Hansen for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD16 plays · 87 yds · 5:3731% → 37%
Q1 3:18
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+15
70.2%
RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (CJ Onyechi) to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
69.9%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Donny Navarro for 15 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:44
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+5
69.0%
RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Michael Dwumfour) to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+22
69.3%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Daniel Barker for 22 yds to the Rutgr 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:3266% → 64%
Q2 13:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
64.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 33 yds, fair catch by James Frenchie Jr. at the Illin 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:1435% → 35%
RUTGDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:5965% → 64%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
65.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 11 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Roderick Perry II) to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
65.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for no gain to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q2 9:32
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
63.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro at the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0235% → 34%
Q2 8:21
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
65.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11FG9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5166% → 72%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
66.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 6 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q2 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+23
66.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 23 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+29
68.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 29 yds to the Illin 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5831% → 30%
Q2 3:12
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+59
70.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 59 yds , Avery Young returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13END OF HALF13 plays · 64 yds · 2:4871% → 73%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
72.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 6 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for no gain to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q2 0:51
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+10
71.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
50
+6
74.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 6 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
74.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 8 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+7
73.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Christian Dremel for 7 yds to the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14FG14 plays · 69 yds · 5:5330% → 36%
Q3 9:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
68.7%
Williams, Isaiah pass complete to Navarro, Donny for 1 yard to the RUTGERS0, PENALTY ILLINOIS ineligible downfield on pass (Green, Kendrick) 5 yards to the RUTGERS6, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15TD6 plays · 80 yds · 0:5767% → 80%
Q3 7:43
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+66
79.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 66 yds for a TD (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:3621% → 41%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
77.9%
Epstein, Mike rush for 8 yards to the RUTGERS37, PENALTY ILLINOIS holding (Lowe, Vederian) 10 yards to the ILLINOIS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
76.6%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Casey Washington for 20 yds to the Rutgr 3 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Defensive Offside (Michael Dwumfour) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.3%
Williams, Isaiah pass incomplete to Imatorbhebhe, Josh, PENALTY RUTGERS pass interference (Young, Avery) 1 yards to the RUTGERS1, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ILLINOIS.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17INT7 plays · 32 yds · 1:5267% → 69%
ILLDrive 18FG12 plays · 57 yds · 4:2134% → 47%
Q3 0:02
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+6
63.0%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 6 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 2:4160% → 56%
Q4 12:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
59.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Matt Alaimo for 6 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-3
61.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Paul Woods for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
55.9%
Adam Korsak punt for 36 yds, fair catch by James Frenchie Jr. at the Illin 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20MISSED FG7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2846% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21INT3 plays · 7 yds · 0:4262% → 63%
ILLDrive 22MISSED FG8 plays · 46 yds · 2:3847% → 52%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23INT5 plays · 35 yds · 1:4557% → 63%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-26
63.0%
Noah Vedral pass intercepted Nate Hobbs return for 26 yds to the Illin 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24FG8 plays · 25 yds · 1:0957% → 96%
Q4 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+16
43.8%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Casey Washington for 16 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
40.7%
Isaiah Williams run for no gain to the Rutgr 37 Isaiah Williams fumbled, recovered by Illin Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:07
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+16
43.5%
Isaiah Williams pass complete to Casey Washington for 16 yds to the Rutgr 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25Uncategorized2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
13.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 10 yds to the Rutgr 28 lat. to Isaih Pacheco for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:03
James McCourt 47 yd FG GOOD
-34.3
TD · Q3 4:54
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
-18
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-13