Try the model
MSU

Michigan State 7 at Iowa 49

IOWA
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Kinnick Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · IOWA
modelIOWA aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIOWA scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:33 · Tory Taylor punt for 44 yds, downed at the MchSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 37Home team on offense+5.4Score differential+2.7Pregame prior+14.7Blowout margin−0.2Garbage-time factor+2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 11:07: Tyler Goodson 3 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick) — IOWA win probability +1.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 4:31: Brandon Smith 14 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Keith Duncan Kick) — IOWA win probability +3.6 pts (now 75%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:16: Tyler Goodson 9 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick) — IOWA win probability +7.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: IOWA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:57: Charlie Jones 54 Yd Punt Return (Keith Duncan Kick) — IOWA win probability +6.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 1:30: Riley Moss 54 Yd Interception Return (Keith Duncan Kick) — IOWA win probability +0.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IOWA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9MSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 3:00MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 32, down 14
    Close callPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:33IOWA 4th & 8 at IOWA 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:16MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:45IOWA 4th & 5 at MSU 19, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:47MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:57IOWA 4th & 7 at IOWA 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:52MSU 4th & 5 at IOWA 31, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.6%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:55IOWA 4th & 12 at IOWA 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:57MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 8, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−1.5
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:02MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 23, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:50MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 21, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:18IOWA 4th & 3 at IOWA 48, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:22MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 8, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:02IOWA 4th & 7 at MSU 40, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:34MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 34, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:44IOWA 4th & 6 at MSU 42, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:27MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 12, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:29MSU 4th & 5 at IOWA 43, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:00IOWA 4th & 4 at IOWA 16, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:11MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 44, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:17IOWA 4th & 4 at MSU 28, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IOWA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:07IOWA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:31IOWA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:16IOWA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:57IOWA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:30IOWA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:06MSU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:47IOWA Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:57IOWA Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IOWADrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4669% → 70%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 6 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
68.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 13 yds to the Iowa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
68.9%
Tyler Goodson run for 5 yds to the Iowa 49Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+18
68.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 18 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+27
68.9%
Charlie Jones run for 27 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
68.9%
IOWA Penalty, False Start (Mark Kallenberger) to the MchSt 11Similar
Q1 12:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
68.9%
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
69.0%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 5 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
69.9%
Tyler Goodson 3 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2INT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:3130% → 30%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
69.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 10:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
69.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
69.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 7 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
69.6%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
69.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 8:51
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-5
69.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (AJ Arcuri) to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
69.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Jack Koerner return for no gain to the Iowa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 3TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:5270% → 75%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
70.3%
Tyler Goodson run for 4 yds to the Iowa 30Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+7
70.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 7 yds to the Iowa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
70.6%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the Iowa 40Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
70.9%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Shaun BeyerSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+28
70.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 28 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
71.3%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+17
71.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Ivory Kelly-Martin for 17 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
71.6%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 12
OPP 14
0
71.7%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Tyler GoodsonSimilar
Q1 4:31
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+14
75.4%
Brandon Smith 14 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Keith Duncan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1826% → 25%
Q1 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
74.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
74.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+3
74.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 3 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
74.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Iowa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2176% → 76%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
75.6%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 33Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+3
75.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 3 yds to the Iowa 36Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
75.8%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete, broken up by Jacub PanasiukSimilar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
75.6%
Tory Taylor punt for 44 yds, downed at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0825% → 24%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
75.0%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for no gain to the MchSt 20Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
75.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Anthony Williams Jr. for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
75.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 6 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
75.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+2
75.2%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
75.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 14:16
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+31
75.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 42 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 31 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 7TD
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:5378% → 87%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
78.1%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 12 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
78.3%
Mekhi Sargent run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+9
78.6%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Brandon Smith for 9 yds Brandon Smith fumbled, forced by Tre Person, recovered by IowaSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
78.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+11
79.0%
Mekhi Sargent run for 11 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
79.3%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
86.9%
Tyler Goodson 9 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8INT
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:3414% → 14%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
86.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 9 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 1
OWN 35
-12
85.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Barrington Wade return for 12 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4387% → 90%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
87.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 8
OPP 22
-3
88.9%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+6
89.1%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 6 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 8:45
4TH & 5
OPP 19
+37
89.7%
Keith Duncan 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:5112% → 11%
Q2 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
88.1%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 8:01
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
88.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 4 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-5
88.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
88.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 6:47
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+13
88.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 51 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 13 yds to the Iowa 44 IOWA Penalty, Illegal Block (Tyler Goodson) to the Iowa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4391% → 91%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
90.8%
Mekhi Sargent run for 3 yds to the Iowa 37Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
91.0%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Shaun BeyerSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
91.0%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
90.5%
Tory Taylor punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12MISSED FG
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:5511% → 10%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+56
89.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 56 yds to the Iowa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
88.4%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the Iowa 31Similar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+4
88.0%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the Iowa 27Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 1
OPP 27
-4
88.8%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Iowa 31Similar
Q2 3:52
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+48
90.0%
Matt Coghlin 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5192% → 92%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
92.4%
Tyler Goodson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Iowa 29Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
92.6%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Shaun BeyerSimilar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
92.5%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
92.1%
Tory Taylor punt for 61 yds, downed at the MchSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT TD
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:529% → 2%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
91.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 15
OWN 5
+3
91.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
91.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Trenton GillisonSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 12
OWN 8
+54
98.1%
Charlie Jones 54 Yd Punt Return (Keith Duncan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15INT TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:212% → 2%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 11 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-54
98.2%
Riley Moss 54 Yd Interception Return (Keith Duncan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:212% → 2%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-7
98.2%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Zach VanValkenburg for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 17
OWN 23
0
98.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 17
OWN 23
0
98.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by Matt HankinsSimilar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 17
OWN 23
0
98.3%
Bryce Baringer punt for 44 yds, downed at the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1998% → 98%
Q2 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
97.8%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Nico Ragaini for 1 yd to the Iowa 34Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-1
97.9%
Spencer Petras sacked by Michael Fletcher for a loss of 1 yard to the Iowa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:472% → 2%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.3%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
98.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
98.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-12
98.6%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Chauncey Golston for a loss of 12 yards to the MchSt 26 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Rocky Lombardi) to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 22
OWN 26
+4
98.7%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+57
98.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 57 yds to the Iowa 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by Riley MossSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+4
98.6%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the Iowa 9Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+7
98.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 7 yds to the Iowa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
98.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (AJ Arcuri) to the Iowa 7Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
98.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the Iowa 1Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.4%
IOWA Penalty, Delay of Game (Daviyon Nixon) to the Iowa 1Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the Iowa 1 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jordon SimmonsSimilar
Q3 10:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.4%
Tyler Hunt 1 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 19TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:0799% → 99%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+71
99.1%
Tyler Goodson run for 71 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.2%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Sam LaPortaSimilar
Q3 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.2%
Tyler Goodson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.3%
Mekhi Sargent 2 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:451% → 1%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.2%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
99.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-5
99.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Carrick) to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 12
OWN 21
0
99.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 12
OWN 21
+1
99.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 39 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 1 yd to the Iowa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2599% → 99%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.4%
Tyler Goodson run for 1 yd to the Iowa 42Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+6
99.4%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Sam LaPorta for 6 yds to the Iowa 48Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
99.5%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Tyler GoodsonSimilar
Q3 6:18
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
99.4%
Tory Taylor punt for 46 yds, downed at the MchSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:481% → 0%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
99.5%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & 8
OWN 8
0
99.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyler HuntSimilar
Q3 5:35
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
99.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tyler Hunt, broken up by Dane BeltonSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 8
OWN 8
+6
99.6%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 47 yds , Charlie Jones returns for 6 yds to the Iowa 14 IOWA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Julius Brents) to the Iowa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
99.5%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Shaun Beyer for 16 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.6%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Spencer Petras pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:10
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Nico RagainiSimilar
Q3 4:02
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Tory Taylor punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:180% → 0%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
99.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Elijah Collins for 6 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+15
99.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 15 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.7%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-2
99.7%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
99.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 1:34
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 36 yds, downed at the Iowa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
99.7%
Spencer Petras pass complete to Tyrone Tracy Jr. for 24 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for no gain to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+4
99.7%
Mekhi Sargent run for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Spencer Petras pass incomplete to Brandon Smith, broken up by Shakur BrownSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 6
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Tory Taylor punt for 38 yds, downed at the MchSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
99.8%
Anthony Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+4
99.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 4 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 2
OWN 12
0
99.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr.Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
99.8%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 27TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
99.8%
Petras, Spencer pass incomplete to Smith, Brandon, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Brown, Shakur) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWA.Similar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
99.8%
Tyler Goodson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+11
99.8%
Charlie Jones run for 11 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+15
99.8%
Petras, Spencer pass incomplete to Ragaini, Nico, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Person, Tre) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST6, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN IOWA.Similar
Q4 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Mekhi Sargent 6 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.9%
Wright, Brandon rush for 5 yards to the MICHIGANST30, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Arcuri, AJ) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+22
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Ricky White for 22 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Brandon Wright run for 2 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 10:38
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q4 10:31
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+13
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Brandon Wright for 13 yds to the Iowa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
99.9%
Brandon Wright run for 5 yds to the Iowa 43Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 9:36
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
99.9%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Charlie Jones at the Iowa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q4 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
99.9%
Alex Padilla run for 6 yds to the Iowa 16Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Gavin Williams run for no gain to the Iowa 16Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Alex Padilla pass incomplete to Jackson RitterSimilar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 4
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Tory Taylor punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 30DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Brandon Wright run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Brandon Wright run for 4 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+1
99.9%
Brandon Wright run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 6:11
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler HuntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IOWADrive 31Uncategorized
11 plays · 36 yds · 5:31100% → 100%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
99.9%
Gavin Williams run for 7 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Alex Padilla run for 1 yd to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
99.9%
Gavin Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-5
99.9%
Padilla, Alex pass complete to Kritta, Alec for 10 yards to the MICHIGANST23, PENALTY IOWA ineligible downfield on pass (Britt, Justin) 5 yards to the MICHIGANST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Gavin Williams run for 4 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 3:01
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+6
100.0%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 4
OPP 28
+12
100.0%
Alex Padilla pass complete to Alec Kritta for 12 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
100.0%
Gavin Williams run for 6 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
100.0%
Ivory Kelly-Martin run for no gain to the MchSt 10Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+2
100.0%
Gavin Williams run for 2 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:16
Tyler Goodson 9 Yd Run (Keith Duncan Kick)
+7.6
TD · Q2 1:57
Charlie Jones 54 Yd Punt Return (Keith Duncan Kick)
+6.5
TD · Q1 4:31
Brandon Smith 14 Yd pass from Spencer Petras (Keith Duncan Kick)
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com