Try the model
MINN

Minnesota 41 at Illinois 14

ILL
2020 · Week 10 · Nov 7, 2020 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:01 · Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−18.6Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:29: Treyson Potts 9 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick) — MINN win probability +3.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:23: Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +5.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:09: Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +7.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:32: Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +6.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:24: Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK) — MINN win probability +7.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:37MINN 4th & 5 at ILL 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:01ILL 4th & 13 at ILL 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:53ILL 4th & 12 at MINN 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    35.0%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:21ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:17ILL 4th & 15 at ILL 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:42ILL 4th & 1 at MINN 12, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    12.2%−1.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:49MINN 4th & 17 at ILL 41, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−0.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    95.4%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:14ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 7:23ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 10, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 3:29MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:23MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:09MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:32ILL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:24MINN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:21MINN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:30ILL Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:27MINN Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MINNDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1470% → 69%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
30.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 15 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
30.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 41Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+14
30.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 14 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
30.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q1 13:18
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
30.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:12
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+5
31.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 5 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
31.3%
Tanner Morgan punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3331% → 32%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
31.4%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Illin 21Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
31.6%
Coran Taylor run for 2 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 6
OWN 23
-7
31.9%
Coran Taylor sacked by Esezi Otomewo for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 16Similar
Q1 11:01
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
31.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:5568% → 68%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
31.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
50
+12
31.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 12 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
32.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 43 Mohamed Ibrahim fumbled, recovered by Illin Isaiah GaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:0133% → 33%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
33.0%
Chase Brown run for 16 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
33.3%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
33.7%
Coran Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-10
33.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Minn 49Similar
Q1 8:30
3RD & 18
OPP 49
+6
33.2%
Coran Taylor pass complete to Brian Hightower for 6 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 7:53
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
33.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 36 yds, downed at the Minn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 5TD
11 plays · 93 yds · 4:1867% → 70%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
33.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 11Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 6
OWN 11
0
33.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+32
34.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 32 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
33.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
33.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+22
34.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 22 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
33.3%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
33.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+19
33.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 19 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
33.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
30.1%
Treyson Potts 9 Yd Run (Michael Lantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
12 plays · 17 yds · 2:5231% → 31%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
31.4%
Coran Taylor run for 8 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+4
32.0%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
31.4%
Mike Epstein run for no gain to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-5
31.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+12
31.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
31.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+5
31.3%
Coran Taylor run for 5 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+8
31.3%
Coran Taylor pass complete to Casey Washington for 8 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 0:28
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
31.5%
Coran Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 7
OWN 41
-5
31.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the Illin 36Similar
Q1 0:21
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
30.7%
Blake Hayes punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:3770% → 75%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
30.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Witham for 7 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+9
30.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 9 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+36
29.8%
Treyson Potts run for 36 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
29.6%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
29.6%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
24.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0126% → 26%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
26.2%
Chase Brown run for 12 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
26.5%
Coran Taylor pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
26.3%
Coran Taylor pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 10
OWN 37
-5
25.7%
Coran Taylor sacked by Boye Mafe for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
25.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Phillip Howard at the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 3:4676% → 85%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
24.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 13 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
23.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+11
23.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 11 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
23.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 15 yds to the ILLINOIS 36 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
23.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 14 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
22.4%
Seth Green run for 4 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
22.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds to the Illin 1Similar
Q2 8:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:1517% → 25%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+63
16.6%
Mike Epstein run for 63 yds to the Minn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
18.4%
Coran Taylor run for 3 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+8
18.1%
Coran Taylor pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 8 yds to the Minn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
17.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Minn 14Similar
Q2 6:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+12
17.5%
Coran Taylor run for 12 yds to the Minn 2Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
18.1%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Minn 1Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
24.9%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4178% → 90%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
22.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd to the Minn 26Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
22.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 10 yds to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
23.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
22.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 5 yds to the Minn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
23.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 5 yds to the Illin 48Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+17
22.4%
Cam Wiley run for 17 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
20.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Clay Geary for 18 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
18.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Illin 8Similar
Q2 1:11
1ST & 5
OPP 8
0
18.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-FordSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+6
18.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 6 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
10.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
14.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
14 plays · 27 yds · 4:5113% → 11%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
13.0%
Coran Taylor run for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
12.9%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 13:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+19
13.2%
Mike Epstein run for 19 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
14.1%
Coran Taylor run for 16 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
14.4%
Coran Taylor pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 11 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
13.9%
Coran Taylor run for 7 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+2
13.8%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q3 12:02
3RD & 1
OPP 12
0
13.5%
Coran Taylor pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 11:42
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
13.4%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Minn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
13.5%
Coran Taylor run for no gain to the Minn 10Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
13.4%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Minn 25Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 25
-23
12.9%
Coran Taylor run for a loss of 23 yards to the Minn 48 Coran Taylor fumbled, recovered by Illin Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 48
0
11.1%
Coran Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 48
0
10.8%
Blake Hayes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Phillip Howard at the Minn 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 48 yds · 3:2793% → 96%
Q3 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
7.1%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+18
6.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 18 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
6.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+15
6.5%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
50
+16
6.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 16 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
5.5%
Cam Wiley run for 3 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-10
5.2%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Jer'Zhan Newton for a loss of 10 yards to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 17
OPP 41
0
3.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 17
OPP 41
0
4.2%
Mark Crawford punt for 30 yds, downed at the Illin 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:186% → 5%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
5.9%
Coran Taylor run for 4 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+2
5.6%
Kyron Cumby run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
5.4%
Coran Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
5.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 54 yds, downed at the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 16TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 3:4296% → 99%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
3.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 30Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+11
3.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 11 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
3.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 4 yards to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 14
OWN 37
+9
2.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 9 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+15
2.7%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete, PENALTY ILLINOIS roughing passer 15 yards to the ILLINOIS39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
2.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
2.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 27 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
11 plays · 2 yds · 2:432% → 1%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.5%
Coran Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
1.4%
Coran Taylor run for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+9
1.5%
Mike Epstein run for 9 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
1.5%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+9
1.4%
Coran Taylor run for 9 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
1.1%
Coran Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
1.1%
Coran Taylor pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-15
1.1%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Clipping (-15 Yards) to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 25
OWN 39
-12
0.6%
Coran Taylor sacked by Boye Mafe for a loss of 12 yards to the Illin 27 Coran Taylor fumbled, recovered by IllinSimilar
Q4 12:33
4TH & 37
OWN 27
0
0.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.6%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted Devon Witherspoon return for no gain to the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:421% → 3%
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
0.5%
Coran Taylor run for 6 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+21
0.5%
Coran Taylor pass complete to Daniel Barker for 21 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
2.9%
Coran Taylor pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 52 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 2:4498% → 100%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
1.8%
Cam Wiley run for 4 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+53
1.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 53 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
1.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 9:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
1.4%
Seth Green run for 2 yds to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:450% → 0%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
0.3%
Coran Taylor sacked by DeAngelo Carter for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 15Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 13
OWN 15
0
0.3%
Coran Taylor pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 13
OWN 10
-5
0.3%
Coran Taylor run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 10 ILLINOIS Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass ( Yards) to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 18
OWN 10
+8
0.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 53 yds , Ko Kieft returns for 8 yds to the Minn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
11 plays · 40 yds · 7:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
0.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+11
0.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
0.2%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 20
50
+4
0.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+8
0.2%
Cam Wiley run for 8 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 3:30
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+10
0.2%
Cam Wiley run for 10 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
0.2%
Cam Wiley run for 3 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+6
0.1%
Cam Wiley run for 6 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+10
0.1%
Cam Wiley run for 10 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
0.1%
Cam Wiley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 13Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:24
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 2 yds for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-7.8
TD · Q2 8:09
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd for a TD (Michael Lantz KICK)
-7
TD · Q2 5:32
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
+6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com