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MSU

Michigan State 27 at Michigan 24

MICH
2020 · Week 9 · Oct 31, 2020 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:29 · Brad Robbins punt for 39 yds, downed at the MchSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior+16.3Home team on offense−3.0Garbage-time factor−1.7Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q3 12:26: Matt Coghlin 27 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +6.4 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:00: Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +9.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 4:23: Matt Coghlin 51 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:11: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 13 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +28.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:37: Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK) — MICH win probability +19.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 5 of 10MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:45MICH 4th & 15 at MICH 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:11MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 88.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:55MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:40MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:58MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:49MICH 4th & 4 at MSU 5, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.6%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−6.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:11MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:47MICH 4th & 13 at MSU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−1.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:26MSU 4th & 8 at MICH 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    20.9%−8.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:23MSU 4th & 2 at MICH 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%−3.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    27.8%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:29MICH 4th & 15 at MSU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    61.1%−0.9
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:21MSU 4th & 2 at MICH 23, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 46.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.0%−2.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−16.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:21MICH 4th & 9 at MSU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:11MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 24, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:23MSU 4th & 2 at MICH 36, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%−0.7
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.4%
    42% to make
    Punt
    80.0%−6.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:57MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:01MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:40MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:00MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:11MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−1.0
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:37MICH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.7%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
92.7%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
92.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
92.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
92.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
92.4%
Joe Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 15
OWN 35
0
92.4%
Joe Milton run for no gain to the Mich 35Similar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
92.4%
Will Hart punt for 36 yds, downed at the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:148% → 9%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
92.0%
Jayden Reed run for 7 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+6
92.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 6 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
92.0%
Jordon Simmons run for 28 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
91.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Ricky White for 30 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:5691% → 91%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
91.3%
Chris Evans run for 16 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
91.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 4 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OPP 40
-2
91.4%
Hassan Haskins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+12
91.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to Giles Jackson for 12 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
91.4%
Joe Milton sacked by Dashaun Mallory for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+15
91.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to A.J. Henning for 15 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
91.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 11 yds to the MchSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.9%
Blake Corum run for 8 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.5%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
90.4%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden, PENALTY MICH pass interference (Green, Gemon) 15 yards to the MSU42, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
90.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
90.3%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-4
90.3%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
90.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
89.9%
Joe Milton pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 13 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
90.0%
Joe Milton pass complete to Giles Jackson for 10 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
90.2%
Zach Charbonnet run for 6 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
90.3%
Zach Charbonnet run for no gain to the Mich 49Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 4
OWN 49
0
90.2%
Joe Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
90.0%
Brad Robbins punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 31 yds · 2:5111% → 12%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
89.1%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to White, Ricky, PENALTY MICH holding (Gray, Vincent) 10 yards to the MSU18, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
89.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
89.1%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+5
89.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
89.0%
Connor Heyward run for no gain to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
89.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+15
89.2%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Nailor, Jalen, PENALTY MICH pass interference (Gray, Vincent) 15 yards to the MSU43, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
88.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
88.6%
Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+5
87.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (Aidan Hutchinson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
50
-12
87.2%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MICHIGAN 47 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+1
87.8%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
88.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds, downed at the Mich 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
87.7%
Joe Milton pass complete to Roman Wilson for 13 yds to the Mich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
87.8%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 6 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 27
-5
87.9%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 22Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+7
87.4%
Joe Milton run for 7 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 13:55
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
87.4%
Will Hart punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:0114% → 20%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+53
86.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 53 yds to the Mich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
85.0%
Jalen Nailor run for 8 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+3
85.0%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the Mich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
85.0%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the Mich 2Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 9:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
79.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
80.9%
Joe Milton run for 17 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
81.2%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 30Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
81.0%
Joe Milton run for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+4
80.9%
Joe Milton pass complete to Giles Jackson for 4 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
80.9%
Will Hart punt for 47 yds, downed at the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
77.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
77.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
78.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+53
78.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds , Giles Jackson returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12FG
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:3777% → 80%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.4%
Joe Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
77.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to Giles Jackson for 20 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
78.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 19 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
79.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ben Mason for 9 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+16
80.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 16 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
80.0%
Joe Milton run for 5 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+1
78.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
77.6%
Hassan Haskins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+23
79.9%
Quinn Nordin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · -3 yds · 0:3823% → 23%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
77.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 5 yds to the MchSt 30 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (Jalen Nailor) to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+3
77.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+2
76.9%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 2:14
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+2
76.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+32
77.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 78 yds , Giles Jackson returns for 32 yds to the Mich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 1:0575% → 73%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
74.9%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
74.6%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+26
73.7%
Joe Milton pass complete to Roman Wilson for 26 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
77.3%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Mike Sainristil, broken up by Shakur BrownSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-10
77.0%
Milton, Joe pass complete to Johnson, C. for 8 yards to the MSU34 (Camper, Jack), PENALTY MICH holding (Filiaga, Chuck) 10 yards to the MICH48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 20
OWN 48
0
75.2%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 20
OWN 48
+7
74.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 7 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 13
OPP 45
0
73.2%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
74.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-3
75.1%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
75.9%
Joe Milton run for 1 yd to the Mich 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
75.8%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+3
74.7%
Joe Milton run for 3 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
74.6%
Will Hart punt for 29 yds, downed at the MchSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FG
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:0328% → 36%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+50
71.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Ricky White for 50 yds to the Mich 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
69.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
69.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
70.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q3 12:26
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
64.4%
Matt Coghlin 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:2666% → 80%
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.3%
Joe Milton pass complete to Erick All for no gain to the Mich 25Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
66.1%
Joe Milton pass complete to Roman Wilson for 11 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
67.1%
Joe Milton pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 4 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+2
68.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+17
67.8%
Joe Milton pass complete to Roman Wilson for 17 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
69.7%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
69.6%
Joe Milton pass complete to Giles Jackson for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 12:26
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+15
68.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shakur Brown) to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
70.9%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the MchSt 25Similar
Q3 12:26
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+9
70.9%
A.J. Henning run for 9 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
70.9%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 15 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.2%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:3726% → 38%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
74.0%
Jalen Nailor run for 3 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+15
74.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 15 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
72.3%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
72.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+19
73.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Ricky White for 19 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
70.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
70.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 4 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+4
71.3%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+51
62.4%
Matt Coghlin 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 34 yds · 1:5466% → 64%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.5%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Erick All, broken up by Antjuan SimmonsSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
65.2%
Joe Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+15
63.6%
Joe Milton pass complete to Giles Jackson for 15 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
68.6%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+18
69.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 18 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
69.9%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
69.9%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 10
OPP 36
-5
68.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Ryan Hayes) to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 15
OPP 41
0
65.8%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 15
OPP 41
0
63.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 39 yds, downed at the MchSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21MISSED FG
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5437% → 45%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
62.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MchSt 3Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+40
63.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Ricky White for 40 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
58.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Ricky White for 5 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+10
58.3%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Nailor, Jalen, PENALTY MICH holding (Perry, Jalen) 10 yards to the MICH42, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
57.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
57.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for no gain to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+5
58.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+6
55.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Ricky White for 6 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
53.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by Gemon GreenSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
53.4%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+6
55.4%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+40
55.4%
Matt Coghlin 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
60.5%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 23Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+13
60.1%
Joe Milton pass complete to Blake Corum for 13 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
61.6%
Joe Milton pass complete to Giles Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 33Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 13
OWN 33
+5
60.1%
Joe Milton pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 5 yds to the Mich 38Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+12
60.7%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
50
0
65.2%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Roman Wilson, broken up by Drew BeesleySimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
50
+1
64.6%
Zach Charbonnet run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
62.1%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Mike SainristilSimilar
Q4 13:21
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
60.3%
Brad Robbins punt for 41 yds, downed at the MchSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 92 yds · 4:3753% → 88%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
47.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+2
46.1%
Jayden Reed run for 2 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+18
47.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 18 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
44.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
45.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+15
45.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Ricky White for 15 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
41.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cade McDonald for 8 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+7
41.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Cade McDonald for 7 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+31
39.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Ricky White for 31 yds to the Mich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
39.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, clipping (-15 Yards) to the Mich 18Similar
Q4 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
+5
39.6%
Connor Heyward run for 5 yds to the Mich 13Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
11.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 13 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24TD
20 plays · 93 yds · 4:3413% → 40%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+13
12.7%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 13 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
13.2%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Giles Jackson, broken up by Shakur BrownSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
13.0%
Joe Milton pass complete to Blake Corum for 4 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
12.4%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q4 5:11
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+6
11.7%
Joe Milton run for 6 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
14.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 5
OWN 35
+9
15.1%
Joe Milton run for 9 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
15.5%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Zach CharbonnetSimilar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
14.8%
Joe Milton pass complete to Nick Eubanks for 5 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+6
15.3%
Joe Milton pass complete to Zach Charbonnet for 6 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
16.9%
Joe Milton pass complete to Roman Wilson for 4 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+11
17.4%
Joe Milton run for 11 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
20.2%
Joe Milton pass complete to Erick All for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+8
20.6%
Joe Milton pass complete to Erick All for 8 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
20.6%
Joe Milton run for no gain to the MchSt 17Similar
Q4 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
20.2%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+16
17.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 16 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
20.6%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 2Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25END OF GAME
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:1390% → 94%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
10.5%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 0:31
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+3
6.0%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 0:28
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+4
5.8%
Jayden Reed run for 4 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+3
5.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 3 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:11
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 13 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-28
TD · Q4 0:37
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+19.6
TD · Q3 8:00
Blake Corum run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinn Nordin KICK)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com