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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMINN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:32 · Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Mary 8 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 13:14: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +13.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- FG · Q4 7:06: Joseph Petrino 51 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +8.9 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:38: Jake Funk run for 19 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +37.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +21.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Seth Green run for 2 yds for a TD (Brock Walker PAT MISSED) — MINN win probability +20.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 8:07MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 30, down 7Close callPunted · 82.2% before the snapGo for it82.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 10:15MD 4th & 1 at MINN 48, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.5%−1.3average punt
- Q2 5:08MD 4th & 2 at MINN 43, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 28.5% before the snapGo for it28.6%57% to convertField goal26.9%−1.728% to makePuntTheir call27.2%−1.4average punt
- Q2 0:15MD 4th & 9 at MINN 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.5% before the snapGo for it19.9%−1.132% to convertField goalTheir call21.0%49% to makePunt19.0%−2.0average punt
- Q3 3:32MINN 4th & 1 at MD 13, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.4%71% to convertField goal88.7%−1.885% to makePunt82.9%−7.6average punt
- Q3 2:03MINN 4th & 7 at MD 7, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snapGo for it89.5%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call90.1%91% to makePunt82.9%−7.2average punt
- Q4 10:57MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 31, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snapGo for it85.3%−0.748% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.1%average punt
- Q4 7:06MD 4th & 22 at MINN 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snapGo for it9.8%−2.38% to convertField goalTheir call12.1%47% to makePunt10.5%−1.6average punt
- Q4 4:46MINN 4th & 15 at MINN 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snapGo for it81.8%−3.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.2%average punt
- Q4 1:12MINN 4th & 2 at MINN 47, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 4.3 ptsPunted · 53.1% before the snapGo for it51.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.6%−4.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MINN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 10:07MD Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call16.0%97% to makeGo for two16.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:48MD Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.9%97% to makeGo for two20.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:42MINN Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.9%97% to makeGo for two77.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:24MD Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.1%97% to makeGo for two26.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:06MINN Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.6%97% to makeGo for two72.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:42MINN Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.7%97% to makeGo for two72.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:46MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.8%97% to makeGo for two79.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:54MINN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call85.5%97% to makeGo for two85.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:14MD Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call15.1%97% to makeGo for two14.8%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 3:38MD Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.2%97% to makeGo for two44.4%−1.745% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMDDrive 1TD13 plays · 82 yds · 4:2311% → 15%
Q1 13:14
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+15
12.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 15 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
12.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 16 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
12.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 9 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+7
13.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 7 yds to the Minn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
14.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jake Funk for 8 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5386% → 84%
Q1 8:07
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
15.9%
Matthew Stephenson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3TD3 plays · 62 yds · 1:0216% → 20%
Q1 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+14
16.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 14 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
19.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 39 yds for a TD MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Minn 8 (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4TD8 plays · 81 yds · 3:4881% → 81%
MDDrive 5TD2 plays · 76 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
24.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 76 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD12 plays · 65 yds · 5:0977% → 77%
Q2 13:10
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+9
27.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 9 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7INT9 plays · 27 yds · 2:1626% → 29%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
27.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jake Funk for 4 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+5
27.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 5 yds to the Minn 48Similar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
29.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & 15
50
-21
28.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted DeAngelo Carter return for 21 yds to the Mary 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8TD5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3675% → 80%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+28
24.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 28 yds to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 35 yds · 2:1224% → 27%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
24.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 16 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+6
26.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 6 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
26.7%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Phillip Howard at the Minn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10TD6 plays · 91 yds · 2:1476% → 85%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
21.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11MISSED FG10 plays · 38 yds · 2:1918% → 19%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+25
19.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 25 yds to the Minn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
21.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 9 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-5
21.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-9
21.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the Minn 24 MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Minn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD8 plays · 87 yds · 2:4382% → 90%
Q3 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+33
18.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 33 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 14
OWN 45
+15
18.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+39
10.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 39 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14FUMBLE7 plays · 84 yds · 2:2912% → 14%
MINNDrive 15FG14 plays · 73 yds · 6:4290% → 95%
Q3 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
8.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 12 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:379% → 21%
Q3 1:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+18
8.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 18 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
8.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 9 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
20.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 15 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:4885% → 86%
MDDrive 19FG12 plays · 33 yds · 3:4415% → 20%
Q4 10:10
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+15
12.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 15 yds to the Minn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
14.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 9 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+27
13.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 27 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
3RD & 6
OPP 18
-16
14.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Boye Mafe and Thomas Rush for a loss of 16 yards to the Minn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 2:0583% → 85%
MDDrive 21TD3 plays · 56 yds · 1:0022% → 65%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
27.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 6 yds to the Minn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5851% → 54%
Q4 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+12
49.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 12 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+29
46.2%
Matthew Stephenson punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the MARYLAND 19 MINNESOTA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Mary 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER6 plays · 32 yds · 0:5055% → 55%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
54.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 7 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+30
58.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 30 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-15
62.2%
MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 25
OWN 46
+10
54.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jake Funk for 10 yds to the Minn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25TD5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0065% → 83%
MINNDrive 26TD5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0020% → 34%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:38
Jake Funk run for 19 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+37.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+34.1
TD · OT 0:00
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)
+21