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Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:46 · Charles Campbell 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:56: Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +10.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:13: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 15 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +6.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:34: Kay'Ron Adams run for 37 yds for a TD, (Noah Vedral pass to Isaih Pacheco for Two-Point Conversion) — RUTG win probability +11.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:34: Timeout RUTGERS, clock 05:34 — IU win probability +5.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:56: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 2 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +8.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 6 of 8IU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 14:03RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snapGo for it24.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.2%average punt
- Q1 12:37IU 4th & 13 at IU 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snapGo for it74.9%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.0%average punt
- Q1 10:04RUTG 4th & 7 at IU 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snapGo for it26.2%−<0.137% to convertField goal26.1%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q1 9:15IU 4th & 7 at IU 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snapGo for it73.0%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call73.0%average punt
- Q1 1:46IU 4th & 24 at RUTG 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snapGo for it63.9%−1.16% to convertField goalTheir call65.0%68% to makePunt62.6%−2.4average punt
- Q2 14:53RUTG 4th & 10 at RUTG 15, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snapGo for it31.4%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.3%average punt
- Q2 10:02IU 4th & 5 at RUTG 10, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.4% before the snapGo for it64.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call64.1%88% to makePunt60.3%−3.7average punt
- Q2 8:18RUTG 4th & 23 at RUTG 3, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snapGo for it33.4%−1.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call35.4%average punt
- Q2 7:03IU 4th & 5 at RUTG 43, down 1Close callPunted · 63.2% before the snapGo for it63.4%42% to convertField goal62.4%−1.128% to makePuntTheir call62.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 1:22RUTG 4th & 2 at RUTG 33, down 13Close callPunted · 20.9% before the snapGo for it20.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 13:37IU 4th & 15 at IU 11, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snapGo for it78.8%−2.915% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.7%average punt
- Q3 12:33RUTG 4th & 8 at IU 34, down 13Close callWent for it · 20.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call20.3%−<0.134% to convertField goal20.3%47% to makePunt19.8%−0.4average punt
- Q3 10:08IU 4th & 3 at RUTG 13, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snapGo for it82.9%50% to convertField goalTheir call82.4%−0.585% to makePunt75.3%−7.6average punt
- Q3 1:36RUTG 4th & 4 at IU 18, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.2%47% to convertField goal13.9%−0.279% to makePunt7.9%−6.3average punt
- Q4 9:39RUTG 4th & 3 at IU 22, down 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.3%52% to convertField goal2.1%−0.172% to makePunt-0.0%−2.3average punt
- Q4 6:09IU 4th & 5 at IU 28, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 3IU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 7:35RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.5%97% to makeGo for two29.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:56IU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.9%97% to makeGo for two71.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:13IU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.9%97% to makeGo for two78.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:34RUTG Touchdown, down 10 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick22.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call22.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:56IU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call87.7%97% to makeGo for two87.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:37IU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:21RUTG Touchdown, down 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · failedKick3.0%−0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call3.1%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRUTGDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3725% → 26%
Q1 14:03
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
25.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:2374% → 74%
RUTGDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 29 yds · 2:2627% → 28%
Q1 10:04
4TH & 7
OPP 45
+1
27.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 yds , Reese Taylor returns for 1 yd to the Ind 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3572% → 72%
Q1 9:15
4TH & 7
OWN 8
0
28.4%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Ind 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5TD5 plays · 43 yds · 1:2029% → 32%
Q1 7:42
4TH & 5
OPP 38
+15
28.9%
Vedral, Noah pass incomplete, PENALTY INDIANA roughing passer (McFadden, Micah) 15 yards to the INDIANA23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN RUTGERS.Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
31.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 23 yds for a TD, (Guy Fava KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6FG17 plays · 57 yds · 5:2469% → 66%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
31.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 8 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
32.2%
INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matthew Bedford) to the Ind 23Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 25
OWN 18
+17
32.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 17 yds to the Ind 35Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+8
33.7%
Michael Penix Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 17 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (Mohamed Toure) to the Rutgr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3033% → 33%
Q1 0:48
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-6
33.7%
Noah Vedral sacked by Tiawan Mullen for a loss of 6 yards to the Rutgr 12Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+3
33.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 3 yds to the Rutgr 15Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
33.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8FG9 plays · 51 yds · 4:2166% → 64%
Q2 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+12
33.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 12 yds to the Rutgr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
33.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 14 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-4
34.0%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by CJ Onyechi for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 17Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+7
35.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 7 yds to the Rutgr 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -13 yds · 1:3537% → 36%
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
37.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Matt Alaimo for no gain to the Rutgr 16Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 10
OWN 16
-11
36.6%
Noah Vedral sacked by Tiawan Mullen for a loss of 11 yards to the Rutgr 5Similar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 23
OWN 3
-2
36.4%
Adam Korsak punt for 43 yds , Reese Taylor returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4764% → 63%
Q2 7:03
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
37.0%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11INT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4939% → 39%
IUDrive 12TD3 plays · 6 yds · 0:2964% → 74%
RUTGDrive 13INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
28.5%
Noah Vedral pass intercepted Jaylin Williams return for no gain to the Rutgr 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14TD6 plays · 28 yds · 1:1774% → 81%
RUTGDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 1:3823% → 22%
Q2 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
22.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q2 1:40
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
21.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 7 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
22.2%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16END OF HALF3 plays · -13 yds · 1:2181% → 81%
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
19.4%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 28 INDIANA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dylan Powell) to the Ind 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5081% → 80%
RUTGDrive 18INT5 plays · 18 yds · 0:4822% → 21%
IUDrive 19FG5 plays · 55 yds · 1:4584% → 87%
Q3 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+48
16.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 63 yds to the RUTGERS 5 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Whop Philyor) to the Rutgr 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 20TD14 plays · 80 yds · 4:0615% → 28%
Q3 9:10
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+6
15.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Johnny Langan for 6 yds to the Rutgr 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+6
14.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Christian Dremel for 6 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+3
14.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 3 yds to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+15
14.3%
Vedral, Noah pass incomplete to Cruickshank, Aron, PENALTY INDIANA roughing passer (Swann, Jovan) 15 yards to the INDIANA42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN RUTGERS.Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+37
27.5%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 37 yds for a TD, (Noah Vedral pass to Isaih Pacheco for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
27.8%
RUTGERS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Ind 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 21TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1978% → 91%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
21.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 20 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
19.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Javon Swinton for 17 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
19.0%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete, PENALTY RUTGERS pass interference (Avery, Tre) 15 yards to the RUTGERS23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
18.4%
Penix Jr., Michael pass incomplete to Philyor, Whop, PENALTY RUTGERS pass interference 10 yards to the RUTGERS13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN INDIANA.Similar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
17.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 11 yds to the Rutgr 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 2 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 22DOWNS8 plays · 27 yds · 1:4814% → 14%
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
14.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 8 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
14.2%
Langan, Johnny pass incomplete to Melton, Bo, PENALTY INDIANA holding (Mullen, Tiawan) 10 yards to the INDIANA24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN RUTGERS.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 23TD8 plays · 82 yds · 3:4890% → 98%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+18
9.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 18 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+37
6.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 37 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 1 yd for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 24DOWNS10 plays · 48 yds · 2:312% → 2%
Q4 9:39
4TH & 3
OPP 22
-4
2.0%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 2 yds · 3:3099% → 99%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-13
1.1%
INDIANA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-13 Yards) to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26TD13 plays · 71 yds · 3:501% → 1%
Q4 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+9
0.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 9 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
0.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 2
50
+7
0.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 7 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+14
0.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 14 yds to the Ind 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
0.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 5 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+5
0.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 5 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
1.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 16 yds for a TD Vedral, Noah pass attempt failed, PENALTY INDIANA pass interference 0 yards to the INDIANA3, NO PLAY. (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-14
1.6%
Noah Vedral sacked by Tiawan Mullen for a loss of 14 yards to the Ind 47Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 23
OPP 46
-9
1.2%
Noah Vedral sacked by Cam Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Rutgr 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:34
Kay'Ron Adams run for 37 yds for a TD, (Noah Vedral pass to Isaih Pacheco for Two-Point Conversion)
+11.6
TD · Q2 4:56
Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q3 3:56
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 2 yds for a TD, (Charles Campbell KICK)
-8.4