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RUTG

Rutgers 38 at Michigan State 27

MSU
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreRUTG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:15 · Bryce Baringer punt for 55 yds , Avery Young returns for 9 yds to the Rutgr 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Home team on offense−18.9Pregame prior+3.8Score differential−8.3Garbage-time factor−8.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:32: Noah Vedral run for 24 yds for a TD (Guy Fava KICK) — RUTG win probability +8.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:36: Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds for a TD (Guy Fava KICK) — RUTG win probability +20.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Matt Coghlin 48 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +6.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:30: Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 30 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +16.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:38: Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 14 yds for a TD (Guy Fava KICK) — RUTG win probability +8.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8RUTG made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:10RUTG 4th & 7 at MSU 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    27.4%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:50MSU 4th & 3 at RUTG 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−1.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:18RUTG 4th & 13 at RUTG 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:23MSU 4th & 1 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.6%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:13MSU 4th & 7 at RUTG 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00MSU 4th & 3 at RUTG 31, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%−1.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:23RUTG 4th & 10 at MSU 44, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−2.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:18MSU 4th & 18 at MSU 27, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−4.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:16MSU 4th & 2 at RUTG 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−1.5
    74% to make
    Punt
    28.0%−12.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:12RUTG 4th & 1 at MSU 25, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−2.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    62.3%−10.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:20RUTG 4th & 13 at MSU 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−3.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−9.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:15MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:08RUTG 4th & 3 at RUTG 36, up 11
    Close callPunted · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:33RUTG 4th & 15 at midfield, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.5%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:20MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3RUTG made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:19RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:57RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:23MSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:32RUTG Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:36RUTG Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:30MSU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:38RUTG Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:53MSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RUTGDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:4131% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
68.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
68.7%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
68.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 11 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
68.7%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+5
68.7%
Vedral, Noah pass incomplete to Jones, Shameen (Brown, Shakur), PENALTY MSU offside defense 5 yards to the RU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-2
68.7%
Aaron Young run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+25
68.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 25 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
68.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
68.7%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+12
68.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 12 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
66.7%
Isaih Pacheco run for 12 yds for a TD (Guy Fava KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
67.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 19 yds Jayden Reed fumbled, forced by Avery Young, recovered by Rutgr Avery YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
66.5%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Aron Cruickshank, broken up by Tre PersonSimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+1
66.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 11:10
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+2
66.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
66.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 25 yds, downed at the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FUMBLE
3 plays · -15 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
66.3%
Connor Heyward run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 11Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+1
66.2%
Connor Heyward run for 1 yd to the MchSt 12Similar
Q1 9:37
3RD & 14
OWN 12
-8
66.0%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Mohamed Toure for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 1 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Tyreek Maddox-Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 5TD
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2335% → 39%
Q1 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
64.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 4Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
64.8%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
64.9%
Vedral, Noah pass incomplete to Cruickshank, A., PENALTY MSU pass interference 2 yards to the MSU2, 1ST DOWN RU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
64.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q1 6:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.8%
Johnny Langan run for 1 yd for a TD (Guy Fava KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
62.9%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+7
62.9%
Rocky Lombardi run for 7 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q1 6:50
3RD & 1
OPP 42
-2
62.8%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q1 6:50
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+1
62.7%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
59.2%
Aron Cruickshank run for no gain to the Rutgr 43Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
59.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q1 5:18
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
59.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for no gain to the Rutgr 40Similar
Q1 5:18
4TH & 13
OWN 40
0
59.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 46 yds, downed at the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 2:5958% → 62%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
57.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 8 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+5
58.2%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
58.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+14
58.0%
Jordon Simmons run for 14 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
58.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-7
58.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 8 yds to the 50 yard line MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+4
58.0%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 12
OWN 39
+11
58.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 11 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:23
4TH & 1
50
+50
61.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 50 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:1540% → 39%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
60.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 6 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-3
59.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 3 yards to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
60.5%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo Melton, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
61.1%
Adam Korsak punt for 50 yds, downed at the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
60.2%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
60.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+11
59.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Tre Mosley for 11 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
60.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 12
OWN 30
-1
60.2%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 13
OWN 29
-19
59.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Tre Avery return for 19 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 11TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:4643% → 51%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
56.8%
Aaron Young run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+24
48.6%
Noah Vedral run for 24 yds for a TD (Guy Fava KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12FUMBLE
13 plays · 55 yds · 0:0050% → 52%
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
50.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+2
51.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
51.0%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
50.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
50.6%
Connor Heyward run for 9 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
51.8%
Connor Heyward run for 4 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
52.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
51.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 6
50
+5
51.9%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden, PENALTY RU substitution infraction 5 yards to the RU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+21
52.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-8
52.7%
Jayden Reed run for a loss of 8 yards to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q2 11:28
2ND & 18
OPP 32
+10
52.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 10 yds Jayden Reed fumbled, forced by Avery Young, recovered by Rutgr Olakunle FatukasiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13INT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
45.6%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
45.6%
Noah Vedral run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+8
46.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 8 yds to the Rutgr 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
45.3%
Vedral, Noah rush for 5 yards to the RU40, out-of-bounds (Henderson, X.), PENALTY RU holding 10 yards to the RU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+7
45.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 7 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-38
45.7%
Noah Vedral pass intercepted Shakur Brown return for 23 yds to the MICHIGANST 45 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Rutgr 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14FG
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:5247% → 46%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
46.7%
Collins, Elijah rush for no gain to the RU30 (Young, Avery;Dwumfour, M.), PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the RU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 20
OPP 40
-1
45.9%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 21
OPP 41
-5
45.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 26
OPP 46
+4
45.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 4 yds to the Rutgr 42Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 22
OPP 42
+15
44.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 15 yds to the Rutgr 27Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+45
45.9%
Matt Coghlin 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:2656% → 77%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
43.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 9 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+26
43.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 26 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
43.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 6 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+7
43.5%
Aaron Young run for 7 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
43.5%
Tre Avery run for 2 yds to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
22.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds for a TD (Guy Fava KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 0:3632% → 38%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
31.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 15 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
33.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 11 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
33.3%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 2 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
33.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for no gain to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
30.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by Tre AverySimilar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+5
30.0%
RUTGERS Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+48
38.1%
Matt Coghlin 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0036% → 38%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
35.7%
Brandon Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+14
35.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 14 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
36.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 5 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+7
37.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 7 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
38.2%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 13
OWN 46
+13
36.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 13 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
38.2%
Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the Rutgr 42 Jordon Simmons fumbled, forced by Olakunle Fatukasi, recovered by Rutgr Olakunle FatukasiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0073% → 71%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
27.3%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
27.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 14 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
26.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
27.1%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+2
27.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 2 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
29.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jalen Nailor at the MchSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
28.8%
Connor Heyward run for 3 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+6
28.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+2
28.9%
Connor Heyward run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
29.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 12 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
29.6%
Elijah Collins run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+1
28.8%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-6
28.5%
Rocky Lombardi sacked by Mohamed Toure for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 27 Rocky Lombardi fumbled, recovered by MchSt Aj Arcuri , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 18
OWN 27
+3
28.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 46 yds , Aron Cruickshank returns for 3 yds to the Rutgr 30 Aron Cruickshank fumbled, forced by Chase Kline, recovered by MchSt Antjuan SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
44.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 30 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
36.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+1
35.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 1 yd to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-7
36.7%
Noah Vedral sacked by Drew Beesley for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 29 Noah Vedral fumbled, recovered by MchSt Naquan Jones , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0042% → 38%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
41.7%
Rocky Lombardi run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
41.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+2
39.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+1
37.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23FG
15 plays · 54 yds · 6:1168% → 78%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
32.3%
Noah Vedral run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 23Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+30
31.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 30 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
29.4%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+4
29.4%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+7
29.9%
Noah Vedral run for 7 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-9
28.9%
Noah Vedral run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33 RUTGERS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 19
OPP 43
-3
29.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 22
OPP 46
+16
30.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 16 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+5
25.4%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 5 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+2
27.4%
Noah Vedral run for 2 yds to the MchSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
23.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
24.0%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Jovani HaskinsSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 11
OPP 24
-2
24.9%
Noah Vedral run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 13
OPP 26
+44
22.1%
Guy Fava 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
21.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
21.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Connor Heyward for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+6
20.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
21.7%
Elijah Collins run for no gain to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
21.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
20.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete, broken up by Mohamed ToureSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+9
19.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 55 yds , Avery Young returns for 9 yds to the Rutgr 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
15.7%
Aaron Young run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 24Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
15.6%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+1
15.9%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 1 yd to the Rutgr 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
15.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
15.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 5 yds to the Rutgr 36Similar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 3
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Aron CruickshankSimilar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
15.8%
Adam Korsak punt for 39 yds , Jalen Nailor returns for no gain to the MchSt 26 Jalen Nailor fumbled, recovered by Rutgr Bo MeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 26TD
4 plays · 26 yds · 2:1990% → 98%
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
10.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 6:57
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+10
10.2%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 10 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
10.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
1.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 14 yds for a TD (Guy Fava KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 2:453% → 9%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
2.5%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Ricky White for 5 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+5
2.6%
Lombardi, Rocky pass intercepted by Avery, Tre at the RU40, Avery, Tre return to the RU46, PENALTY RU offside defense 5 yards to the MSU45, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
2.6%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 4 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+9
2.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 9 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-10
2.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Jayden Reed MICHIGAN ST Penalty, intentional grounding (-10 Yards) to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 20
OWN 48
+3
2.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Elijah Collins for 3 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 17
OPP 49
+22
2.7%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds to the Rutgr 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
3.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 13 yds to the Rutgr 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
3.2%
Lombardi, Rocky pass incomplete to Nailor, Jalen, PENALTY RU pass interference 6 yards to the RU8, 1ST DOWN MSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
2.8%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 4Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
9.4%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jayden Reed for 4 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · -5 yds · 0:1997% → 98%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
3.0%
Aaron Young run for 4 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-10
2.4%
Noah Vedral sacked by Tre Person for a loss of 10 yards to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+1
2.8%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 15
50
+17
2.2%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 26 , Jalen Nailor returns for 17 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 29INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
2.8%
Rocky Lombardi run for 6 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
3.0%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:20
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
2.9%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+13
2.8%
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Matt Dotson for 13 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
3.2%
Rocky Lombardi pass incomplete to Ricky WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-13
3.1%
Rocky Lombardi pass intercepted Brendon White return for 13 yds to the Rutgr 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Rutgr 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:36
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds for a TD (Guy Fava KICK)
-20.6
TD · Q3 6:30
Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 30 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+16.5
TD · Q4 4:38
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 14 yds for a TD (Guy Fava KICK)
-8.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com