2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMD score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Derek Adams punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 9:09: Joseph Petrino 33 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +1.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:31: Peyton Ramsey run for 12 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +2.0 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:04: Charlie Kuhbander 43 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +2.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:43: Drake Anderson run for 37 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +7.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:29: Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 7 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 9:09MD 4th & 14 at NU 16, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.4% before the snapGo for it20.2%−0.216% to convertField goalTheir call20.4%81% to makePunt19.8%−0.6average punt
- Q2 15:00NU 4th & 6 at NU 45, up 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snapGo for it81.4%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.6%average punt
- Q2 12:58MD 4th & 20 at MD 14, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snapGo for it16.7%−0.99% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.6%average punt
- Q2 9:04NU 4th & 14 at MD 25, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.6% before the snapGo for it81.9%−0.918% to convertField goalTheir call82.8%66% to makePunt79.4%−3.4average punt
- Q2 8:59MD 4th & 11 at MD 39, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snapGo for it14.4%−0.726% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%average punt
- Q2 3:23NU 4th & 4 at MD 5, up 21Close callKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.8%40% to convertField goalTheir call93.4%−0.392% to makePunt89.9%−3.8average punt
- Q2 3:17MD 4th & 2 at MD 42, down 24Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it7.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%−0.5average punt
- Q2 0:24NU 4th & 1 at MD 34, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%71% to convertField goal98.2%−0.147% to makePunt97.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 15:00NU 4th & 3 at MD 21, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.4%51% to convertField goal98.1%−0.374% to makePunt95.8%−2.6average punt
- Q3 15:00NU 4th & 1 at MD 8, up 27Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.3%70% to convertField goal97.3%−1.090% to makePunt94.7%−3.6average punt
- Q3 6:23MD 4th & 28 at MD 42, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 3:22NU 4th & 6 at NU 49, up 34Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.7%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:20MD 4th & 7 at MD 39, down 40Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:17NU 4th & 4 at NU 29, up 40Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 4:49NU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.4%97% to makeGo for two79.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:31NU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.5%97% to makeGo for two81.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:43NU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:29NU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:25NU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMDDrive 1FG13 plays · 56 yds · 5:5118% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
82.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 8 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+7
82.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 7 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
82.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 11 yds to the Nwest 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
82.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 6 yds to the Nwest 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+5
82.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jake Funk for 5 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
82.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Isaiah Jacobs for no gain to the Nwest 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2TD15 plays · 75 yds · 4:2080% → 81%
Q1 9:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
80.0%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
80.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 6 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+9
80.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 9 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3INT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
NUDrive 4TD5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5880% → 83%
MDDrive 5INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
NUDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:4782% → 82%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
82.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+15
82.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 15 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
82.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Riley Lees, broken up by Kenny BennettSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
82.4%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Malik Washington for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
82.0%
Derek Adams punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jeshaun Jones at the Mary 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
NUDrive 8FG8 plays · 35 yds · 2:3484% → 86%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+17
83.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 17 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
84.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass incomplete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman, broken up by Lavonte GaterSimilar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 8
OPP 19
-15
83.7%
Ramsey,Peyton pass complete to Bowser,Isaiah for 7 yards to the UMD12, out-of-bounds (C. Campbell), PENALTY NU PO (Mcgowan,Kyric) 15 yards to the UMD34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 23
OPP 34
+9
83.3%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 9 yds to the Mary 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
85.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Dontay Demus Jr. for 19 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
84.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jake Funk for 4 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q2 8:59
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
84.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Jeshaun Jones, broken up by Rod HeardSimilar
Q2 8:59
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+21
85.5%
Colton Spangler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the NORTHWSTRN 25 MARYLAND Penalty, kick catching interference (Deonte Banks) to the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10TD5 plays · 60 yds · 1:5687% → 94%
Q2 7:39
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+6
86.1%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 6 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12FG6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2094% → 95%
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
93.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 12 yds to the Mary 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 3:17
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
92.9%
Colton Spangler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14FG15 plays · 56 yds · 2:3598% → 99%
Q2 2:10
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+15
97.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 15 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+15
97.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Jesse Brown for 15 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.9%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 4 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+5
97.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 5 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
98.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Jesse Brown for 7 yds to the Mary 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD19 plays · 75 yds · 8:3199% → 100%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+13
98.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Riley Lees for 13 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
98.8%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 3 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+19
98.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 4 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Ayinde Eley) to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+4
98.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to John Raine for 4 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-10
98.8%
Bowser,Isaiah rush for 2 yards to the UMD15 (J. Bennett), PENALTY NU holding (Raine,John) 10 yards to the UMD27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.6%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Isaiah Bowser for 7 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT9 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
99.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 10 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 7
50
+10
99.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 10 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 14
OPP 44
-14
99.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Adebawore Adetomiwa for a loss of 14 yards to the Mary 42Similar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 28
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Riley Lees at the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 29 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:22
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
99.7%
Peyton Ramsey pass complete to Ramaud Chiaokhiao-Bowman for 3 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18INT7 plays · 31 yds · 1:220% → 0%
Q3 1:22
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+11
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Jeshaun Jones for 11 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+15
99.8%
T. Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Darryl Jones, PENALTY NU pass interference (Heard,Rod) 15 yards to the NU49, 1ST DOWN UMD, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted Coco Azema return for no gain to the Nwest 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19TD9 plays · 93 yds · 5:47100% → 100%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
99.8%
Anderson,Drake rush for 20 yards to the NU27 (Fa'Najae Gotay), PENALTY NU holding (Wrather,Ben) 3 yards to the NU4, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 1 yd to the Mary 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 4:17
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Cody Gronewold punt for 43 yds , Jeshaun Jones returns for 5 yds to the Mary 34 MARYLAND Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the Mary 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22Uncategorized4 plays · 40 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:43
Drake Anderson run for 37 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+7.3
FG · Q2 9:04
Charlie Kuhbander 43 yd FG GOOD
+2.5
TD · Q1 1:31
Peyton Ramsey run for 12 yds for a TD (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+2