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ILL

Illinois 7 at Wisconsin 45

WIS
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2020 · Camp Randall Stadium
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Win probability · WIS
modelWIS aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playWIS scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:11 · Blake Hayes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+36.2Home team on offense+1.8Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:54: Jake Ferguson 5 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +2.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:22: Tarique Barnes 39 Yd Fumble Return (James McCourt Kick) — ILL win probability +4.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:06: Jake Ferguson 14 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +4.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:28: Danny Davis 53 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick) — WIS win probability +5.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:23: John Chenal run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK) — WIS win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:43ILL 4th & 7 at ILL 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:23WIS 4th & 4 at WIS 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:11ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:53WIS 4th & 1 at WIS 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    88.0%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:54ILL 4th & 6 at WIS 40, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−0.5
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:26WIS 4th & 8 at WIS 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:10ILL 4th & 2 at WIS 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:36ILL 4th & 19 at ILL 5, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−1.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:27WIS 4th & 2 at WIS 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:52ILL 4th & 1 at WIS 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:55WIS 4th & 19 at WIS 43, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.6
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:07ILL 4th & 6 at WIS 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:39ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:56WIS 4th & 1 at ILL 1, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:37WIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:54WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:22ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:06WIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:28WIS Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:23WIS Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:53WIS Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:159% → 9%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
90.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 11 yds to the Illin 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
90.8%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the Illin 33 Mike Epstein fumbled, recovered by WiscSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 2TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:5391% → 91%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
90.8%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 11
OPP 34
+3
90.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 3 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 13:18
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+12
90.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 12 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
90.5%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
90.3%
Nakia Watson run for 4 yds to the Illin 10Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
90.5%
Mason Stokke 10 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4810% → 10%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.4%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.4%
Mike Epstein run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
90.3%
Brandon Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
90.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 45 yds , Danny Davis returns for no gain to the Wisc 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1090% → 90%
Q1 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-7
90.3%
Graham Mertz sacked by Khalan Tolson for a loss of 7 yards to the Wisc 20Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 17
OWN 20
0
90.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the Wisc 20Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 17
OWN 20
+13
90.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 13 yds to the Wisc 33Similar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 4
OWN 33
0
89.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 60 yds, downed at the Illin 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:0510% → 10%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
89.9%
Jakari Norwood run for 1 yd to the Illin 8Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+6
89.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 6 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+6
89.9%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 6 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.7%
Jakari Norwood run for no gain to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+30
89.6%
Brandon Peters run for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:07
1ST & 10
50
0
89.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 10
50
0
89.4%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 10
50
-2
89.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 48Similar
Q1 5:11
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
89.6%
Blake Hayes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 6TD
15 plays · 88 yds · 8:0990% → 92%
Q1 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
89.6%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the Wisc 12Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+7
89.5%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 7 yds to the Wisc 19Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 3
OWN 19
+19
89.3%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Danny Davis for 19 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
89.6%
Garrett Groshek run for 8 yds to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
89.7%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for no gain to the Wisc 46Similar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 2
OWN 46
-5
89.4%
WISCONSIN Penalty, False Start (Hayden Rucci) to the Wisc 41Similar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+6
89.2%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 6 yds to the Wisc 47Similar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
89.0%
Nakia Watson run for 1 yd to the Wisc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
89.4%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+16
89.3%
Garrett Groshek run for 1 yd to the Illin 48 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Roderick Perry II) to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
89.4%
Graham Mertz run for 13 yds to the Illin 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
89.4%
Nakia Watson run for 8 yds to the Illin 12Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+3
89.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the Illin 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
89.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for 4 yds to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
92.1%
Jake Ferguson 5 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 1:509% → 9%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
91.0%
Brandon Peters run for 31 yds to the Wisc 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
90.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Doug Kramer) to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 20
OWN 46
+5
91.0%
Isaiah Williams run for 5 yds to the Wisc 49Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+9
91.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Josh Imatorbhebhe for 9 yds to the Wisc 40Similar
Q2 10:01
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
90.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 6
OPP 40
+34
91.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jack Dunn at the Wisc 11 WISCONSIN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dean Engram) to the Wisc 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 3:2292% → 91%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
91.6%
Danny Davis run for 4 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+8
91.6%
Nakia Watson run for 8 yds to the Wisc 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
91.7%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wisc 15Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+5
91.4%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 5 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
91.3%
Graham Mertz run for no gain to the Wisc 20Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
90.9%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 28 yds · 2:099% → 10%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
90.9%
Mike Epstein run for 20 yds to the Wisc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
90.6%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the Wisc 35Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+5
90.2%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+2
90.4%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Wisc 28Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 2
OPP 28
0
90.5%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 10FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:4492% → 88%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
91.5%
Isaac Guerendo run for 2 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+39
87.6%
Tarique Barnes 39 Yd Fumble Return (James McCourt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 11TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:0988% → 93%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+19
87.6%
Garrett Groshek run for 4 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
88.2%
Jack Dunn run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 7
50
+34
88.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 34 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
88.5%
Garrett Groshek run for 2 yds to the Illin 14Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
92.8%
Jake Ferguson 14 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 0:219% → 8%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
91.5%
Brandon Peters sacked by Nick Herbig for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 15
OWN 9
0
91.6%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 15
OWN 9
-4
91.7%
Brandon Peters sacked by Isaiahh Loudermilk for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 5Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & 19
OWN 5
0
92.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 13TD
1 play · 53 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
97.1%
Danny Davis 53 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 3:2797% → 97%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
96.7%
Nakia Watson run for 6 yds to the Wisc 10Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 10
+5
96.9%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Wisc 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
96.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wisc 14Similar
Q3 13:11
2ND & 11
OWN 14
-5
97.0%
WISCONSIN Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Wisc 9Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+11
97.0%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 11 yds to the Wisc 20Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+3
97.1%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jack Dunn for 3 yds to the Wisc 23Similar
Q3 11:27
4TH & 2
OWN 23
+8
97.0%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 39 yds , James Frenchie Jr. returns for 8 yds to the Illin 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:294% → 4%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
96.5%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+15
96.6%
Brandon Peters run for 15 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
96.5%
Brandon Peters run for 8 yds to the Wisc 30Similar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
96.2%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+1
96.5%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
96.5%
Brandon Peters run for no gain to the Wisc 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 3:4897% → 98%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
97.4%
Graham Mertz run for 5 yds to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
97.5%
Nakia Watson run for 6 yds to the Wisc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.6%
Kendric Pryor run for 2 yds to the Wisc 42Similar
Q3 7:59
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+10
97.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 10 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-9
97.7%
Graham Mertz sacked by Tarique Barnes for a loss of 9 yards to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 19
OWN 43
0
97.7%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the Wisc 43Similar
Q3 6:02
3RD & 19
OWN 43
0
97.7%
Graham Mertz pass incomplete to Garrett GroshekSimilar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 19
OWN 43
0
97.5%
Andy Vujnovich punt for 49 yds, fair catch by James Frenchie Jr. at the Illin 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18DOWNS
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:423% → 2%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+26
97.5%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Brian Hightower for 26 yds to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
97.3%
Mike Epstein run for 7 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-1
97.6%
Mike Epstein run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+22
97.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Mike Epstein for 22 yds to the Wisc 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
97.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Josh ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q3 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
97.7%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+9
97.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 9 yds to the Wisc 29Similar
Q3 3:38
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-5
97.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (Brian Hightower) to the Wisc 34Similar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
97.8%
Brandon Peters pass incomplete to Brian HightowerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 19TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 5:3998% → 100%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
98.2%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
98.3%
Isaac Guerendo run for no gain to the Wisc 37Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+23
98.6%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Kendric Pryor for 23 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
98.7%
Nakia Watson run for 6 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
98.8%
Nakia Watson run for no gain to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+8
98.8%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Garrett Groshek for 8 yds to the Illin 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
98.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 9 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+10
99.0%
Garrett Groshek run for 10 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.0%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
John Chenal run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:390% → 0%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
99.9%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Isaiah Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Isaiah Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wisc 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 21TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 6:38100% → 100%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
99.8%
Isaac Guerendo run for 6 yds to the Wisc 32 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Wisc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 7
50
+13
99.9%
Isaac Guerendo run for 13 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-2
99.9%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 39Similar
Q4 9:08
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+4
99.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 4 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+13
99.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 13 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
99.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 6 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+9
99.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 9 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.9%
Garrett Groshek run for no gain to the Illin 7Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
Garrett Groshek run for 4 yds to the Illin 3Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Graham Mertz pass complete to Jake Ferguson for 3 yds for a TD (Collin Larsh KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
99.9%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 14Similar
Q4 4:09
2ND & 12
OWN 14
-10
99.9%
Isaiah Williams pass intercepted Titus Toler return for 10 yds to the Illin 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WISDrive 23FG
7 plays · 15 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.9%
Nakia Watson run for 5 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
99.9%
Nakia Watson run for 4 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q4 2:51
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+6
99.9%
Nakia Watson run for 6 yds to the Illin 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
100.0%
Mason Stokke run for no gain to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
100.0%
Nakia Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 2Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
100.0%
Chase Wolf run for 1 yd to the Illin 1Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+19
100.0%
Collin Larsh 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24Uncategorized
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
100.0%
Matt Robinson run for 8 yds to the Illin 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:28
Danny Davis 53 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)
+5.1
TD · Q2 1:06
Jake Ferguson 14 Yd pass from Graham Mertz (Collin Larsh Kick)
+4.3
TD · Q2 3:22
Tarique Barnes 39 Yd Fumble Return (James McCourt Kick)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com