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PSU

Penn State 35 at Indiana 36

IU
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
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Win probability · IU
modelIU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playIU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:14 · Jordan Stout punt for 49 yds , Reese Taylor returns for 21 yds to the Ind 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 50Pregame prior−15.7Home team on offense−1.9Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−1.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Time remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:00: Sean Clifford run for 35 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +19.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q4 2:30: Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 60 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +49.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:42: Devyn Ford run for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK) — PSU win probability +35.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:22: Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout PENN ST, clock 00:22 (M. Penix Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion) — IU win probability +56.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds for a TD Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds for a TD Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds for a TD Timeout PENN ST, clock 00:00 (M. Penix Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion) — IU win probability +55.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
IU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 7:59PSU 4th & 2 at IU 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−1.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:34IU 4th & 17 at IU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:19PSU 4th & 2 at PSU 43, up 7
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:53IU 4th & 8 at IU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:24IU 4th & 9 at PSU 16, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    30.0%−5.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:14PSU 4th & 12 at PSU 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:52IU 4th & 12 at IU 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−2.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:13PSU 4th & 24 at IU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−3.9
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−2.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:18IU 4th & 15 at PSU 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−3.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−2.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:19PSU 4th & 10 at IU 44, down 6
    Close callPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−1.7
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:55IU 4th & 6 at IU 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:55PSU 4th & 1 at IU 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    21.6%−4.4
    66% to make
    Punt
    9.8%−16.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:14IU 4th & 4 at IU 32, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:47IU 4th & 21 at IU 14, down 1
    Numbers favored punt by 4.7 ptsWent for it · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%−4.7
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
IU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:59PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:12IU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:36IU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:00PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:30PSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−1.9
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:42PSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−3.0
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:22IU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    13.6%−15.8
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    29.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 64 yds · 6:2572% → 72%
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
28.1%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+21
28.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 21 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
28.5%
Noah Cain run for 7 yds to the Ind 34Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
28.6%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the Ind 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
28.7%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+8
28.8%
Devyn Ford run for 8 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
29.0%
Devyn Ford run for no gain to the Ind 16Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+8
29.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 8 yds to the Ind 8Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+2
29.5%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the Ind 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
29.8%
Sean Clifford run for 2 yds to the Ind 4Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
29.8%
Devyn Ford run for 2 yds to the Ind 2Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
30.4%
Devyn Ford run for no gain to the Ind 2Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:1129% → 29%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.8%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the Ind 26Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
28.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-8
28.6%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Joey Porter Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Ind 18Similar
Q1 6:34
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
28.5%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1371% → 71%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
28.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
28.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 9 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 5:27
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
28.4%
Devyn Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 43Similar
Q1 5:19
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+25
28.7%
Jordan Stout punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the INDIANA 17 PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Ind 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1229% → 29%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
29.3%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the Ind 33Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+6
29.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 6 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 3
OWN 39
0
29.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q1 4:09
4TH & 3
OWN 39
-5
29.2%
INDIANA Penalty, Illegal Touching (-5 Yards) to the Ind 34Similar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
28.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5INT
6 plays · 26 yds · 3:0471% → 72%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
29.1%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 3:07
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+12
29.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 12 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
28.6%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
28.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 4 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+4
28.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for 4 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-14
28.2%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Jaylin Williams return for 14 yds to the PnSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 6FG
9 plays · 22 yds · 2:5131% → 34%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
30.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the PnSt 37Similar
Q1 0:02
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+9
30.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
31.6%
Stevie Scott III run for 4 yds to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
31.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 5 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+2
31.2%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the PnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
32.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 1 yd to the PnSt 16Similar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 9
OPP 16
0
32.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
31.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 12:24
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+34
33.8%
Charles Campbell 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0267% → 65%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
32.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 11 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
32.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Daniel George for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
33.2%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 39
-5
32.8%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (Rasheed Walker) to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 12
OWN 34
0
34.0%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Daniel GeorgeSimilar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+21
34.6%
Jordan Stout punt for 49 yds , Reese Taylor returns for 21 yds to the Ind 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:4434% → 44%
Q2 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
34.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 21 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
35.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+15
35.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 15 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
36.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 8 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+4
37.2%
Sampson James run for 4 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
43.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 14 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:3959% → 57%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
41.3%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the PnSt 5Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
41.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q2 7:06
3RD & 10
OWN 5
-17
42.8%
Sean Clifford pass intercepted Jamar Johnson return for 17 yds to the PnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 10TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0445% → 53%
Q2 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
45.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q2 6:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
52.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11FUMBLE
15 plays · 66 yds · 5:3249% → 44%
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
50.9%
Sean Clifford run for 8 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q2 5:59
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
50.0%
Devyn Ford run for 11 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
49.9%
Sean Clifford run for 8 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q2 4:49
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
49.8%
Devyn Ford run for no gain to the Ind 48Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-5
51.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 47Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+12
52.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 12 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
52.0%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+9
52.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 9 yds to the Ind 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
51.7%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the Ind 27Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+11
52.4%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the Ind 26 for a 1ST down INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
52.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 5 yds to the Ind 11Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
52.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the Ind 7Similar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 1
OPP 7
-2
55.9%
Will Levis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 9 Will Levis fumbled, forced by Jamar Johnson, recovered by Ind Jerome JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 12FUMBLE
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:3561% → 61%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
60.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 12Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-4
61.1%
Stevie Scott III run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ind 8 Stevie Scott III fumbled, recovered by PnSt Lamont WadeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13DOWNS
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
55.4%
Jake Pinegar 25 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:5460% → 62%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
60.2%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
60.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
59.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 13 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
62.9%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the Ind 41Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 41
-5
63.3%
Stevie Scott III run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 36Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+2
62.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 2 yds to the Ind 38Similar
Q3 11:52
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
61.9%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15MISSED FG
18 plays · 54 yds · 7:3237% → 27%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
63.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Devyn Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 15Similar
Q3 10:53
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+2
64.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 2 yds to the PnSt 17Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+15
66.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Daniel George for 15 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
65.2%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 9:25
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
65.2%
Sean Clifford run for 7 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
65.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-10
64.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PnSt 39Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 14
OWN 39
+13
68.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 13 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q3 7:06
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+8
66.1%
Keyvone Lee run for 8 yds to the Ind 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
65.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 13 yds to the Ind 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
64.6%
Sean Clifford run for 6 yds to the Ind 21Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
65.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 5 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
65.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 1 yd to the Ind 15Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-15
65.1%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the Ind 30Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 24
OPP 30
0
67.6%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 24
OPP 30
0
69.9%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Daniel GeorgeSimilar
Q3 4:13
4TH & 24
OPP 30
+48
73.0%
Jake Pinegar 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
72.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass intercepted Lamont Wade return for no gain to the PnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 57 yds · 4:0130% → 48%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
69.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
70.5%
Devyn Ford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 9
OWN 44
+15
71.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Daniel George for 15 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
69.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 1 yd to the Ind 40Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+8
70.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 8 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
69.6%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the Ind 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
68.7%
Sean Clifford run for 9 yds to the Ind 20Similar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 1
OPP 20
-5
71.0%
PENN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Ind 25Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 6
OPP 25
-10
71.0%
PENN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Ind 35Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 16
OPP 35
+35
51.8%
Sean Clifford run for 35 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:0462% → 70%
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
61.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 3 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
61.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 14:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
59.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 14 yds to the Ind 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
65.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+32
66.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 17 yds to the INDIANA 41 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
67.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
67.7%
INDIANA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 15
OPP 31
0
65.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Whop PhilyorSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 15
OPP 31
0
63.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Jacolby HewittSimilar
Q4 13:18
4TH & 15
OPP 31
+49
69.6%
Charles Campbell 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:3637% → 31%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
63.5%
Sean Clifford run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
64.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Pat Freiermuth for 16 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
63.1%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
62.0%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+7
62.0%
Devyn Ford run for 7 yds to the Ind 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
61.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Pat FreiermuthSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
61.9%
Sean Clifford run for 3 yds to the Ind 41Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-3
64.0%
Sean Clifford sacked by Devon Matthews for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 44Similar
Q4 9:19
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
69.1%
Jordan Stout punt for 30 yds, downed at the Ind 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0980% → 79%
Q4 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
79.5%
Stevie Scott III run for 3 yds to the Ind 17Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+1
79.7%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the Ind 18Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
79.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
78.8%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:4933% → 30%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
66.6%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
68.9%
Caziah Holmes run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 7
50
+16
68.3%
INDIANA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tiawan Mullen) to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
64.4%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the Ind 30Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
64.3%
Caziah Holmes run for 1 yd to the Ind 29Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+4
67.1%
Caziah Holmes run for 4 yds to the Ind 25Similar
Q4 4:55
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-1
70.1%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0987% → 89%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
87.0%
Stevie Scott III run for 1 yd to the Ind 27Similar
Q4 3:39
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+5
87.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 5 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
87.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
88.9%
Haydon Whitehead punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23TD
3 plays · 74 yds · 0:3922% → 71%
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
77.6%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+14
78.8%
Sean Clifford run for 14 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
28.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 60 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:3544% → 39%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
44.4%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 6 yards to the Ind 19Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-5
43.1%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by Shaka Toney for a loss of 5 yards to the Ind 14Similar
Q4 1:53
3RD & 21
OWN 14
0
40.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:47
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
38.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 25TD
1 play · 14 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
3.1%
Devyn Ford run for 14 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:168% → 69%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
7.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 12 yds to the Ind 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
8.6%
PENN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
10.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 1:24
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
9.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the PnSt 43Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+13
11.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Javon Swinton for 13 yds to the PnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+10
12.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Javon Swinton for 10 yds to the PnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
12.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 14 yds to the PnSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
12.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 5 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.6%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout PENN ST, clock 00:22 (M. Penix Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 27MISSED FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0857% → 59%
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
43.2%
Sean Clifford run for 9 yds to the Ind 40Similar
Q4 0:08
2ND & 1
OPP 40
0
40.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+57
40.6%
Jordan Stout 57 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
61.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 29TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 77%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
40.5%
Sean Clifford run for 13 yds to the Ind 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
40.5%
Devyn Ford run for no gain to the Ind 12Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
40.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 3 yds to the Ind 9Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
22.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 9 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 30TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 83%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
28.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for 9 yds to the PnSt 16Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+6
28.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 6 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
28.1%
Stevie Scott III run for 2 yds to the PnSt 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
28.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stevie Scott III for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 9Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
83.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds for a TD Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds for a TD Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds for a TD Timeout PENN ST, clock 00:00 (M. Penix Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:22
Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD Timeout PENN ST, clock 00:22 (M. Penix Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)
+56.3
TD · OT 0:00
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds for a TD Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds for a TD Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Whop Philyor for 9 yds for a TD Timeout PENN ST, clock 00:00 (M. Penix Jr. Run For Two-point Conversion)
+55.3
TD · Q4 2:30
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 60 yds for a TD (Jake Pinegar KICK)
-49.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com