Try the model
MICH

Michigan 49 at Minnesota 24

MINN
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+2.4MINN 44.0%Brock Walker 29 Yd Field GoalAWAY 14 - HOME 10 · Q1 0:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:39 · Brock Walker 29 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense−1.0Score differential−0.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Pregame prior−5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:38: Mohamed Ibrahim 16 Yd Run (Brock Walker Kick) — MINN win probability +7.5 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 4:48: Hassan Haskins 4 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick) — MICH win probability +8.6 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:00: Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds for a TD — MICH win probability +14.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:36: Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK) — MINN win probability +11.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:20: Joe Milton run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +11.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MICH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 13:26MICH 4th & 30 at MICH 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37MINN 4th & 21 at MINN 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:14MICH 4th & 8 at MINN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    53.5%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:39MINN 4th & 11 at MICH 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    37.1%−4.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:13MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 31, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:26MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  7. Q3 0:49MINN 4th & 4 at MICH 4, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−8.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 3:37MICH 4th & 12 at MINN 18, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:45MICH 4th & 6 at MINN 26, up 25
    Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:05MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 35, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 0:38MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 40, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:44MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:33MICH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:08MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:15MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:38MINN Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:48MICH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:00MICH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:36MINN Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:20MICH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:51MICH Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1957% → 57%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+24
42.6%
Joe Milton pass complete to Blake Corum for 24 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
42.6%
Joe Milton run for 3 yds to the Minn 43Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-15
42.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 22
OWN 42
0
42.8%
Joe Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 22
OWN 42
-8
42.9%
Joe Milton sacked by Boye Mafe for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 34Similar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 30
OWN 34
+17
43.1%
Will Hart punt blocked by Preston Jelen blocked by Preston Jelen Preston Jelen return for 17 yds to the Mich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:2643% → 44%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
43.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Mich 14Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
44.4%
Ko Kieft 14 Yd pass from Tanner Morgan (Brock Walker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
2 plays · 70 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
43.2%
Zach Charbonnet 70 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -11 yds · 1:3843% → 43%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-5
43.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 24Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-10
43.4%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Julius Welschof for a loss of 10 yards to the Minn 14Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
43.4%
Matthew Stephenson punt for 31 yds, downed at the Minn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:0157% → 56%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
43.2%
Joe Milton pass complete to Giles Jackson for 5 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
43.3%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Minn 40Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+18
43.5%
Joe Milton pass complete to Roman Wilson for 18 yds to the Minn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
43.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 8 yds to the Minn 14Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
43.2%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Minn 14Similar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 2
OPP 14
-6
43.4%
Zach Charbonnet run for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 20Similar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+38
44.0%
Jake Moody 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
41.4%
Donovan Jeter 15 Yd Fumble Return (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 7FG
14 plays · 79 yds · 6:0141% → 44%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
41.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 10Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+45
41.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 45 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
42.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 4:50
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+15
42.3%
Morgan, Tanner pass incomplete to Bateman, Rashod, PENALTY MICHIGAN pass interference 15 yards to the MICHIGAN25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MINNESOTA.Similar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
42.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 3 yds to the Mich 22Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+9
42.8%
Treyson Potts run for 9 yds to the Mich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
42.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Mich 13Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+11
42.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 11 yds to the Mich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
42.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 7Similar
Q1 2:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-4
42.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 11Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
42.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Chris Autman-BellSimilar
Q1 1:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
41.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for no gain to the Mich 11Similar
Q1 0:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
44.0%
Brock Walker 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0759% → 63%
Q1 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
41.2%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q1 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
36.7%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ben Mason for 8 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:2338% → 46%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 8 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
38.1%
Cam Wiley run for 7 yds to the Minn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
38.2%
Cam Wiley run for no gain to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
37.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 9 yds to the Minn 49Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+18
38.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the MINNESOTA 48 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
38.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Cam Wiley for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+14
37.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 14 yds to the Mich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
38.3%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 10:17
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
38.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+16
45.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim 16 Yd Run (Brock Walker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 4:1757% → 69%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
42.8%
Joe Milton pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 11 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
42.0%
Giles Jackson run for 8 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+9
41.1%
Joe Milton run for 9 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
39.8%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+14
39.7%
Joe Milton pass complete to A.J. Henning for 14 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
38.8%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-5
38.4%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Ryan Hayes) to the Minn 36Similar
Q2 6:10
2ND & 11
OPP 28
-2
38.7%
Joe Milton run for 8 yds to the Minn 28 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Minn 38Similar
Q2 5:40
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+6
39.8%
Joe Milton run for 6 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q2 5:05
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+23
40.0%
Joe Milton run for 23 yds to the Minn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
31.5%
Hassan Haskins 4 Yd Run (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1832% → 31%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
31.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
31.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 1 yd to the Minn 31Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
31.0%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-2
30.6%
Ko Kieft run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 2:0670% → 85%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
30.3%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 2 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST down MINNESOTA Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (14 Yards) to the Minn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
29.9%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Minn 12Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+8
28.9%
Chris Evans run for 8 yds to the Minn 4Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
14.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:2421% → 20%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for no gain to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
20.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 4 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
20.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-FordSimilar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
19.7%
Matthew Stephenson punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Minn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:2185% → 87%
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
15.2%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
14.5%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Giles JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+10
14.4%
Joe Milton pass complete to Chris Evans for 10 yds to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
14.1%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 7 yds to the Minn 30Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+48
13.4%
Jake Moody 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 5:1419% → 30%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
19.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
18.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+5
19.4%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
19.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Minn 41Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+15
17.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Ko Kieft for 15 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
18.6%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 7 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
18.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Mich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
18.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Bryce WithamSimilar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+25
18.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 25 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
18.2%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
29.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:5875% → 91%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
25.5%
Joe Milton pass complete to Giles Jackson for 12 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
23.5%
Zach Charbonnet run for 4 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+6
23.2%
Joe Milton pass complete to Erick All for 6 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
22.9%
Joe Milton run for 9 yds to the Minn 37Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+7
22.3%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
21.7%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+27
21.7%
Joe Milton pass complete to Erick All for 27 yds to the Minn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
20.9%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Minn 2Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.3%
Joe Milton run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 78 yds · 4:0613% → 12%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+25
12.9%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 25 yds to the Minn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
13.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 38 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
14.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Mich 16Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
14.5%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+3
14.0%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 3 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
13.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 4 yds to the Mich 4Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
12.7%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for no gain to the Mich 4Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
11.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Rashod BatemanSimilar
Q3 0:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
11.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Mohamed IbrahimSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
5 plays · 96 yds · 1:4494% → 99%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+66
6.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 66 yds to the Minn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
5.5%
Blake Corum run for 7 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+16
5.3%
Joe Milton pass complete to Roman Wilson for 16 yds to the Minn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
5.1%
Zach Charbonnet run for 2 yds to the Minn 5Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.8%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
15 plays · 17 yds · 6:081% → 0%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
0.8%
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 14 yds to the Minn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
0.8%
Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the Minn 41Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
0.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Ko KieftSimilar
Q4 12:20
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+14
0.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mohamed Ibrahim for 14 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
0.8%
Treyson Potts run for 3 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-4
0.5%
Treyson Potts run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+12
0.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Rashod Bateman for 12 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-11
0.5%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Carlo Kemp for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 21
OPP 45
-7
0.3%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Kwity Paye for a loss of 7 yards to the Minn 48Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 28
OWN 48
-6
0.2%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Kwity Paye for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 42Similar
Q4 7:33
4TH & 34
OWN 42
0
0.2%
Matthew Stephenson punt for 45 yds, downed at the Mich 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:31100% → 100%
Q4 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
0.3%
A.J. Henning run for 6 yds to the Mich 19Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+30
0.2%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 30 yds to the Mich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+35
0.2%
Joe Milton pass complete to Ronnie Bell for 35 yds to the Minn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
0.2%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Minn 13Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-5
0.2%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 18Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 12
OPP 18
0
0.2%
Joe Milton pass incomplete to Ronnie BellSimilar
Q4 3:37
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+33
0.2%
Jake Moody 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:260% → 0%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
0.1%
Cam Wiley run for 3 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 7
OWN 15
-33
0.1%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted Josh Ross return for 18 yds to the Minn 41 MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Minn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
0.1%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 1
OPP 21
-5
0.1%
McNamara, Cade pass incomplete to Bell, Ronnie, PENALTY MICHIGAN ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the MINNESOTA26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
0.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
0.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Erick AllSimilar
Q4 1:45
4TH & 6
OPP 26
0
0.1%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Giles JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:030% → 0%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Brevyn Spann-FordSimilar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
0.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+9
0.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Treyson Potts for 9 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 1
OWN 35
+1
0.1%
Treyson Potts run for 1 yd to the Minn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
0.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Brevyn Spann-Ford) to the Minn 31Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 15
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Treyson PottsSimilar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 15
OWN 31
0
0.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incomplete to Clay GearySimilar
Q4 0:48
3RD & 15
OWN 31
+9
0.1%
Treyson Potts run for 9 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
0.1%
Matthew Stephenson punt for 46 yds, downed at the Mich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24Uncategorized
1 play · -5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:00
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds for a TD
-14.1
TD · Q3 9:36
Mohamed Ibrahim run for 5 yds for a TD (Brock Walker KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q3 5:20
Joe Milton run for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
-11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com