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TXST

Texas State 21 at Boston College 24

BC
2020 · Week 4 · Sep 26, 2020 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:44 · Grant Carlson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Pregame prior+10.2Home team on offense−13.3Garbage-time factor−5.4Score differential−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:59: Marcell Barbee 6 Yd pass from Brady McBride (Seth Keller Kick) — TXST win probability +15.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:49: Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK) — TXST win probability +29.2 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:15: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 6 yds to the TexSt 42 — BC win probability +9.7 pts (now 29%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:11: Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 5 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK) — BC win probability +34.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:03: Aaron Boumerhi 36 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +29.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TXST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00TXST 4th & 12 at TXST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:30BC 4th & 20 at TXST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.1%
    56% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:30TXST 4th & 2 at BC 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:12BC 4th & 9 at BC 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:24TXST 4th & 22 at BC 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:51BC 4th & 13 at TXST 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    84.2%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00BC 4th & 2 at BC 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00TXST 4th & 19 at BC 33, up 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−3.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    56.8%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.2%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:44BC 4th & 8 at BC 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−2.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 9:09TXST 4th & 3 at BC 47, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:09BC 4th & 10 at BC 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:41TXST 4th & 18 at TXST 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−5.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:56TXST 4th & 2 at TXST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−4.3
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:44TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:28BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:59TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:49TXST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:12BC Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:11BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−4.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.8%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
90.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 12 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
90.8%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the TexSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+2
90.8%
Brady McBride run for 2 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
90.8%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 44
-5
90.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 39
0
90.8%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 5:2390% → 89%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+19
90.3%
Phil Jurkovec run for 19 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
90.3%
Travis Levy run for 11 yds to the TexSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
90.4%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the TexSt 46Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+14
90.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to David Bailey for 14 yds to the TexSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
90.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+12
90.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 12 yds to the TexSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
90.4%
Zay Flowers run for 1 yd to the TexSt 19Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OPP 19
-5
89.6%
Jurkovec,P pass complete to Lewis,C for 19 yards to the TXST0, clock 09:15, PENALTY BC ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the TXST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 14
OPP 24
0
89.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for no gain to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 14
OPP 24
-6
89.3%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Christian Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 20
OPP 30
+47
88.5%
Aaron Boumerhi 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Zion ChildressSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:4612% → 15%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
88.5%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+10
88.5%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete, PENALTY BC holding (Maitre,J) 10 yards to the TXST41, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+29
88.3%
Jeremiah Haydel run for 29 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
88.1%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
88.1%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the BC 30Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+8
88.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 8 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+12
88.4%
Calvin Hill run for 12 yds to the BC 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
88.1%
Brady McBride run for 9 yds to the BC 1Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the BC 1Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.6%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3285% → 83%
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.3%
Phil Jurkovec run for 9 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 3:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-11
85.7%
Phil Jurkovec sacked by Gavin Graham and Nico Ezidore for a loss of 11 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q1 2:12
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
83.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to David Bailey for 3 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
83.3%
Grant Carlson punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5INT
4 plays · 13 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
83.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 12 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
82.5%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
82.6%
Brady McBride run for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-70
82.8%
Brady McBride pass intercepted Mike Palmer return for 70 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3284% → 86%
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
83.7%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the TexSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
83.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
83.3%
Jurkovec,P pass incomplete to Flowers,Z, PENALTY TXST pass interference (Morris, Jarron) 3 yards to the TXST2, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
83.7%
Travis Levy run for no gain to the TexSt 2Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.4%
Phil Jurkovec run for 2 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
84.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 3 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+39
84.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
83.3%
Calvin Hill run for 12 yds to the BC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
83.2%
Brady McBride sacked by M Roberts and Brandon Barlow for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 24Similar
Q2 13:24
2ND & 11
OPP 24
-11
83.4%
Brady McBride sacked by M Roberts for a loss of 11 yards to the BC 35Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 27
OPP 40
+5
84.5%
Brady McBride run for 5 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 22
OPP 35
-5
84.4%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Russell Baker) to the BC 40Similar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 22
OPP 35
0
85.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 54 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+14
85.1%
Phil Jurkovec run for 14 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
83.5%
Zay Flowers run for 3 yds to the BC 12Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 7
OWN 12
+27
83.7%
Travis Levy run for 12 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Trevis Graham Jr.) to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
84.5%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the BC 40Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+3
84.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to David Bailey for 3 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+9
84.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 9 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
85.4%
Jurkovec,P pass complete to Levy,T for 3 yards to the TXST31 (Tupou,Sione;Luper,Brendon), PENALTY BC holding 2 yards to the TXST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 13
OPP 37
0
84.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter LongSimilar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 13
OPP 37
0
83.4%
Grant Carlson punt for 23 yds, downed at the TexSt 14Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-1
84.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 4:1820% → 39%
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
79.7%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 8 yds to the TexSt 22Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+3
79.1%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
79.5%
Brady McBride sacked by Shitta Sillah for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+8
79.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 8 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+4
80.4%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete to Haydel,Jeremiah, PENALTY BC offside (Bequette,L) 4 yards to the TXST28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
80.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 12 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
78.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+20
78.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 20 yds to the BC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
77.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee, broken up by Josh DeBerrySimilar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
77.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 17 yds to the BC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
76.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 13 yds to the BC 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
61.5%
Marcell Barbee 6 Yd pass from Brady McBride (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10INT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0067% → 68%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
67.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 6 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
68.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
67.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds to the BC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
68.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass intercepted Jarron Morris return for no gain to the TexSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
64.9%
Calvin Hill run for 9 yds to the TexSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
67.0%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the BC 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
67.0%
Travis Levy run for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+13
65.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 13 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
66.4%
Grant Carlson punt for 54 yds, downed at the TexSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 6:0437% → 70%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
63.2%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 11Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 12
OWN 11
+10
63.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 10 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+4
63.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Trevis Graham Jr. for 4 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.7%
Brady McBride run for no gain to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue Jackson, broken up by Jason MaitreSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+42
64.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 42 yds to the BC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
59.8%
Brady McBride sacked by Isaiah McDuffie for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 37Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+13
60.6%
Brock Sturges run for 13 yds to the BC 24Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+2
60.2%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the BC 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
59.6%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 23Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+14
59.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 14 yds to the BC 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
59.6%
Brock Sturges run for no gain to the BC 9Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
30.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 6:3138% → 50%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+17
37.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 17 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
40.2%
Phil Jurkovec run for 7 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 3
OPP 48
-5
41.4%
Levy,T rush for 10 yards to the TXST38 (Childress,Zion), PENALTY BC illegal procedure 5 yards to the BC47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-5
40.1%
Travis Levy run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 42Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 13
OWN 42
+22
37.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Spencer Witter for 22 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
41.0%
David Bailey run for 7 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+6
42.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 6 yds to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
42.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Hunter Long, broken up by Brendon LuperSimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
41.6%
David Bailey run for 3 yds to the TexSt 20Similar
Q3 6:43
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+8
41.2%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the TexSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
42.3%
Travis Levy run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 14Similar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+11
41.6%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 11 yds to the TexSt 3Similar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
49.7%
Phil Jurkovec run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:0658% → 57%
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.9%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
42.3%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete to Jackson,Drue, PENALTY BC pass interference (Maitre,J) 15 yards to the TXST39, 1ST DOWN TXST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
39.0%
Calvin Hill run for 17 yds to the BC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-2
37.9%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 46
0
38.2%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 46
+22
39.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 22 yds to the BC 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-10
36.9%
Hill,Calvin rush for 18 yards to the BC6 (DeBerry,J), PENALTY TXST holding (Smith,Jaydan) 10 yards to the BC34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 34
+1
37.1%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the BC 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 19
OPP 33
0
37.6%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the BC 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 19
OPP 33
0
39.3%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OPP 33
0
43.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 15 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0039% → 36%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
38.7%
David Bailey run for 4 yds to the BC 22Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+8
39.2%
David Bailey run for 8 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
39.4%
David Bailey run for 1 yd to the BC 31Similar
Q4 11:44
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+1
39.3%
Travis Levy run for 1 yd to the BC 32Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
37.8%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:44
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
36.1%
Grant Carlson punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
27.0%
Brock Sturges run for 8 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
24.9%
Brock Sturges run for no gain to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
25.3%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
24.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Brock Sturges for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 9:09
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+14
26.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Blake Aragon for 14 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q4 9:09
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-2
23.7%
Brock Sturges run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 47Similar
Q4 9:09
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
27.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Travis Levy at the BC 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 22%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
24.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Zay FlowersSimilar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
24.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
22.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
21.7%
Grant Carlson punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0084% → 81%
Q4 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
16.2%
Brady McBride run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
16.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Marcell Barbee, broken up by Josh DeBerrySimilar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-12
17.2%
Brady McBride sacked by Isaiah McDuffie for a loss of 12 yards to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 4:41
4TH & 18
OWN 23
0
19.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds for a 1ST down , Travis Levy returns for no gain to the TexSt 23 for a 1ST down TEXAS STATE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jarron Morris) to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:0429% → 66%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
28.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 6 yds to the TexSt 42Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+5
30.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 5 yds to the TexSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
29.7%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 5 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+11
32.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Jaelen Gill for 11 yds to the TexSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
32.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 5 yds to the TexSt 16Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 5
OPP 16
0
32.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass incomplete to Jaelen GillSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+8
29.8%
Jurkovec,P pass incomplete to Gill,J, PENALTY TXST roughing passer 8 yards to the TXST8, 1ST DOWN BC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
32.0%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 3 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q4 1:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.4%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 5 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:1549% → 50%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
51.4%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Blake AragonSimilar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
53.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 8 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q4 0:56
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
49.7%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 35 yds , Travis Levy returns for no gain to the BC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:4457% → 96%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
57.3%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 14 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
61.9%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 8 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 0:29
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+15
63.5%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Zay Flowers for 15 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
66.2%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Travis Levy for 8 yds to the TexSt 23Similar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+4
64.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 4 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
64.1%
Phil Jurkovec pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+36
95.5%
Aaron Boumerhi 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Phil Jurkovec pass complete to Hunter Long for 5 yds for a TD (Aaron Boumerhi KICK)
+34.4
FG · Q4 0:03
Aaron Boumerhi 36 yd FG GOOD
+29.5
TD · Q3 6:49
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 9 yds for a TD, (Seth Keller KICK)
-29.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com