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TXST

Texas State 14 at BYU 52

BYU
2020 · Week 8 · Oct 24, 2020 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:43 · Brady McBride pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior+33.2Home team on offense+15.3Score differential+11.2Blowout margin+0.6Garbage-time factor+3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:03: Lopini Katoa 4 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +0.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:43: Keanu Hill 33 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Jake Oldroyd Kick) — BYU win probability +0.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:35: Tyler Allgeier run for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +1.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:47: Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:27: Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 45 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK) — BYU win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5TXST made the numbers' call on 3 of 7
  1. Q1 4:46TXST 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:43BYU 4th & 3 at TXST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    93.3%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:12TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:43TXST 4th & 5 at TXST 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:15TXST 4th & 12 at BYU 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:43TXST 4th & 6 at BYU 6, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:01TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 47, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:38TXST 4th & 5 at BYU 49, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:20BYU 4th & 15 at BYU 40, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:15BYU 4th & 1 at BYU 34, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:44BYU 4th & 4 at TXST 11, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:31BYU 4th & 5 at TXST 46, up 38
    Close callPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:33TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:03BYU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:43BYU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:35BYU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:47BYU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:27BYU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:47BYU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:50BYU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:09TXST Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:073% → 4%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
96.6%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 18 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
96.5%
Calvin Hill run for 12 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+19
96.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 19 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
96.4%
Calvin Hill run for 4 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+9
96.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 9 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
96.2%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the BYU 10Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-10
96.1%
McBride, Brady pass complete to Sheread, Jah'Marae for 4 yards to the BYU6, PENALTY TEXSTATE holding 10 yards to the BYU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 17
OPP 20
+1
96.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 1 yd to the BYU 19Similar
Q1 11:33
3RD & 16
OPP 19
+19
95.8%
Marcell Barbee 19 Yd pass from Brady McBride (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2TD
11 plays · 86 yds · 3:5796% → 95%
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
95.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 4 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q1 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+11
95.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 11 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+22
95.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 22 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
95.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 16 yds to the TexSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
95.5%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+7
95.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the TexSt 24Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+9
95.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Brayden Cosper for 9 yds to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+10
95.1%
Zach Wilson run for 10 yds to the TexSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
94.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 1 yd to the TexSt 4Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.3%
Lopini Katoa 4 Yd Run (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:095% → 6%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 3 yds to the TexSt 28Similar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
94.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 15 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
94.6%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 4 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
94.5%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 3
50
0
94.3%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:46
4TH & 3
50
0
94.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 2:3294% → 95%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
94.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the BYU 17Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
94.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+26
93.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Masen Wake for 26 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
94.3%
Wilson, Zach pass pass intended for Milne, Dax intercepted by Morris, Jarron at the BYU5, Morris, Jarron return 0 yards to the BYU5, PENALTY TEXSTATE pass interference (Morris, Jarron) 15 yards to the TEXSTATE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.3%
Tyler Allgeier run for no gain to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
94.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Tyler Allgeier for 7 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 3
OPP 33
0
94.1%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q1 1:43
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+33
94.8%
Keanu Hill 33 Yd pass from Zach Wilson (Jake Oldroyd Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:085% → 5%
Q1 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.6%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29Similar
Q1 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
94.5%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the TexSt 32Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-5
94.5%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Russell Baker) to the TexSt 27Similar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
94.6%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q1 0:12
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+11
94.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds , Hobbs Nyberg returns for 11 yds to the BYU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:2695% → 96%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
94.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Hank Tuipulotu for 20 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
94.7%
Tyler Allgeier run for 6 yds to the TexSt 34Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+1
94.6%
Zach Wilson run for 1 yd to the TexSt 33Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+6
94.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Keanu Hill for 6 yds to the TexSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+16
94.4%
Neil Pau'u pass complete to Zach Wilson for 16 yds to the TexSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
95.9%
Tyler Allgeier run for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:385% → 5%
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.3%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
95.1%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Trevis Graham Jr.Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
95.2%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
95.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:5096% → 98%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
95.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+14
95.6%
Chris Jackson run for 14 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
95.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 11 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
95.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSt 49Similar
Q2 10:02
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+6
95.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Miles Davis for 6 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+14
95.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 14 yds to the TexSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
95.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 15 yds to the TexSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
95.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 5 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
95.6%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+6
95.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the TexSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:253% → 3%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q2 7:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
97.3%
McBride, Brady pass complete to Sturges, Brock for loss of 2 yards to the TEXSTATE23, PENALTY BYU personal foul 15 yards to the TEXSTATE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXSTATE.Similar
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
97.2%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
97.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 3 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+10
97.2%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete, PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the BYU47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXSTATE.Similar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
97.1%
Brock Sturges run for 3 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 7
OPP 44
-5
97.1%
McBride, Brady pass incomplete, PENALTY TEXSTATE ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the BYU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:28
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
97.2%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 12
OPP 49
0
97.3%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Jeremiah HaydelSimilar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
97.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Talmage Gunther at the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 1:1498% → 98%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
97.8%
Dax Milne run for 13 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.8%
Sione Finau run for 5 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-20
97.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 20 yards to the BYU 10 TEAM fumbled, recovered by TexSt Hal VinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:393% → 3%
Q2 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
97.1%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 11Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
96.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jahmyl Jeter for 5 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.0%
Brady McBride pass incomplete to Drue JacksonSimilar
Q2 2:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.1%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 94 yds · 1:4398% → 99%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
98.0%
Tyler Allgeier run for 7 yds to the BYU 13Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+2
98.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 2 yds to the BYU 15Similar
Q2 1:12
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+9
98.1%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the BYU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
98.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 4 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+2
98.2%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+25
98.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 25 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
99.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 45 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
99.2%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:08100% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Sione FinauSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Miles Davis run for 4 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q3 14:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+15
99.5%
Rehkow, Ryan punt 32 yards to the TEXSTATE39, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TEXSTATE roughing the kicker 15 yards to the BYU43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN BYU.Similar
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.6%
Tyler Allgeier run for 9 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
99.5%
Tyler Allgeier run for 3 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax MilneSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
99.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 6 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
99.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+30
99.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 30 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15INT TD
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:280% → 0%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.7%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 24Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.7%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
99.7%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the TexSt 19Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 16
OWN 19
-32
99.8%
Brady McBride pass intercepted for a TD Isaiah Kaufusi return for 32 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:290% → 0%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
99.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jah'Marae Sheread for 6 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+7
99.8%
Brock Sturges run for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
99.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 9 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-2
99.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 3
OWN 47
0
99.8%
Jahmyl Jeter run for no gain to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 6:01
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hobbs Nyberg at the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
99.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 13Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+13
99.8%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Isaac Rex for 13 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
99.8%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:25
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+4
99.8%
Baylor Romney run for 4 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+18
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 18 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass intercepted Brayden Stringer return for 5 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:240% → 0%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 5 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 1:55
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for no gain to the BYU 49Similar
Q3 1:38
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Talmage Gunther at the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.9%
Sione Finau run for 6 yds to the BYU 21Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+13
99.9%
Kody Epps run for 13 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Kody Epps for 11 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
99.9%
Chris Jackson run for a loss of 7 yards to the BYU 38Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+1
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Sione Finau for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 16
OWN 39
-5
99.9%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 21
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass complete to Chris Jackson for 6 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 12:20
4TH & 15
OWN 40
+4
99.9%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 60 yds , Jeremiah Haydel returns for 4 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 20TD
8 plays · 96 yds · 3:410% → 0%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
99.9%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 6Similar
Q4 11:11
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+34
100.0%
Brock Sturges run for 34 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
100.0%
Calvin Hill run for 11 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
100.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 6 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+14
100.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Calvin Hill for 14 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Jackson Lanam for 10 yds to the BYU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
99.9%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 20Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+20
99.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 20 yds for a TD (Seth Keller KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:18100% → 100%
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Chris JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.9%
Sione Finau run for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Sione Finau run for no gain to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 6:15
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+49
99.9%
Ryan Rehkow run for 49 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
100.0%
Chris Jackson run for 5 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+1
100.0%
Sione Finau run for 1 yd to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
100.0%
Baylor Romney pass incomplete to Kody EppsSimilar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
100.0%
Jake Oldroyd 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 22INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:190% → 0%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Jeremiah Haydel run for 2 yds to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
100.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 1 yd to the TexSt 28Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
100.0%
Brady McBride pass intercepted Pepe Tanuvasa return for 5 yds to the BYU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
100.0%
Miles Davis run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 9
50
0
100.0%
Baylor Romney pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 9
50
+4
100.0%
Talmage Gunther run for 4 yds to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Ryan Rehkow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Haydel at the TexSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
100.0%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+9
100.0%
Calvin Hill run for 9 yds to the TexSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
100.0%
Calvin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:47
Zach Wilson pass complete to Isaac Rex for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 12:35
Tyler Allgeier run for 11 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q2 0:27
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dax Milne for 45 yds for a TD (Jake Oldroyd KICK)
+1.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com